Real-Median — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.8%

Resolved

Trades

729

lifetime

Volume

$16.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-30 19:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

68% 93% +$10

Politics

19% — —

Sports

11% 65% +$8

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kash Patel out by April 30?	9	$800	511	511	+0	open	—	04-04 09:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	8	$613	436	436	+0	open	—	04-25 09:26
Iran leadership change by March 13?	16	$400	204	204	+0	open	—	03-12 18:13
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$360	203	203	+0	open	—	03-12 06:29
will dr congo win the caf africa cup of nations morocco 2025	7	$325	180	154	+25	open	—	01-06 14:47
x banned in uk by march 31	2	$302	158	158	+0	open	—	02-04 07:01
highest temperature in toronto on march 16 2026 14c	7	$300	150	150	+0	open	—	03-16 18:32
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$250	253	0	+253	open	—	01-07 22:26
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 1 2026	1	$250	250	0	+250	open	—	01-02 00:53
jerome powell arrested by march 31	2	$240	125	125	+0	open	—	01-21 14:37
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$239	122	122	+0	open	—	03-29 16:33
will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the united states in january 2026	2	$205	108	108	+0	open	—	01-23 21:49
will partido popular pp win the 2026 castilla y len regional election 258	2	$205	105	105	+0	open	—	03-15 19:58
msft up or down on march 5 2026	3	$203	110	110	+0	open	—	03-05 19:39
will ivory coast win the caf africa cup of nations morocco 2025	2	$201	108	108	+0	open	—	01-10 19:32
iran strike on israel by january 15	2	$200	101	101	+0	open	—	01-16 16:19
open up or down on march 6 2026	8	$200	103	103	+0	open	—	03-06 20:01
bitcoin up or down january 26 3pm et	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	01-26 21:06
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	2	$200	102	102	+0	open	—	03-15 10:41
nflx above 30 on january 16 2026	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	01-13 06:35
will israel strike lebanon on february 3 2026	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	02-05 12:31
nvda up or down on march 19 2026	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	03-19 19:45
will liberal alliance win the second most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	7	$200	108	107	+1	open	—	03-24 20:09
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$193	99	99	+0	open	—	01-29 14:28
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	1	$180	181	0	+181	open	—	01-09 23:35
coin up or down on april 15 2026	2	$151	108	54	+54	open	—	04-15 17:48
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?	1	$150	155	0	+155	open	—	01-10 21:01
will stranger things season 5 be the top global netflix show this week january 6 2026	1	$131	133	0	+133	open	—	01-01 22:11
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$120	150	0	+150	open	—	02-07 09:15
will his hers be the top global netflix show this week january 13 2026	2	$120	125	0	+125	open	—	01-13 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 19:18:37	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xfa89cd…
06-30 16:18:08	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x9199db…
06-22 06:30:46	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 23 2026 5pt91	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x97d95b…
06-17 16:36:04	world cup messi to score 2 penalties 20260605004829032	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xf9fe5c…
06-17 16:34:35	world cup messi to score a free kick 20260605004937388	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x062691…
06-14 20:59:12	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	52	80¢	$42	0x66a8de…
06-11 17:00:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xae059a…
06-09 20:59:12	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0x4a162c…
06-06 20:54:25	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x88468a…
06-04 18:10:09	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0x1d30a7…
06-02 23:48:54	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0xefcfed…
06-02 16:58:28	Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xa5189d…
05-31 13:19:15	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	39	77¢	$30	0xf1da14…
05-31 10:49:16	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x86a985…
05-31 10:13:19	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0xb0c7a1…
05-30 17:12:18	Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic	Elina Svitolina	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x84a100…
05-30 17:11:08	Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	Iga Swiatek	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x6d429d…
05-30 17:10:07	Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima	Felix Auger-Aliassime	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xa1696b…
05-30 17:08:17	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	Casper Ruud	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x6b6370…
05-29 21:54:58	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x38e196…
05-29 21:53:25	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	Thunder	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x91cb33…
05-29 17:59:08	Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova	Coco Gauff	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xcf43d1…
05-29 17:58:08	Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina	Aryna Sabalenka	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xa979be…
05-29 17:30:41	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	Thunder	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9c8006…
05-28 16:53:57	Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xbaa22b…
05-28 16:51:49	Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x7e22f7…
05-27 20:14:41	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0xda6eb6…
05-26 05:32:06	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x274728…
05-25 15:48:51	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x1027bd…
05-24 17:04:08	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x850d03…
05-22 17:25:50	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	12	46¢	$6	0xcef0b3…
05-21 20:25:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x0991b6…
05-21 20:22:08	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Cavaliers	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x0e68d4…
05-20 15:51:41	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x275673…
05-20 15:50:19	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x2b19a7…
05-19 19:00:03	Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x367edc…
05-19 18:55:11	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x4b261a…
05-18 17:30:40	Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x48361c…
05-18 16:58:40	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x409180…
05-16 09:50:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x8ca321…
05-16 09:12:37	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x94367b…
05-15 16:30:11	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf4ace2…
05-15 16:29:26	Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x887d2c…
05-14 20:49:45	Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x09e78a…
05-14 15:41:33	Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xd518ab…
05-14 15:29:16	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x7b9929…
05-13 22:12:55	Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x0157b5…
05-13 17:59:07	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xfedf7f…
05-13 17:55:00	Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xa6ea41…
05-13 17:53:48	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	19	39¢	$7	0xe6b6d7…
05-12 16:24:41	Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xc29110…
05-12 16:24:04	Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x91d0ed…
05-12 16:22:56	Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x489988…
05-12 16:13:18	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x89ba4a…
05-11 21:02:06	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x278466…
05-11 21:01:52	Will Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x492fc6…
05-11 17:35:13	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xd104e8…
05-11 17:34:21	Will Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x13083b…
05-11 17:32:25	Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x0d124d…
05-11 17:32:06	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	11	60¢	$6	0xfb2e94…
05-10 09:44:10	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x45681a…
05-10 09:43:47	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x8be57a…
05-09 21:29:01	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xcc41e0…
05-08 05:28:44	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x43f17c…
05-08 05:28:00	Knicks vs. 76ers	Knicks	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0x192a6f…
05-07 20:27:45	Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x0b2500…
05-07 20:18:19	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x77a446…
05-07 20:17:43	Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0x9bb7c6…
05-07 16:29:20	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x7a8264…
05-07 16:27:28	Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x0b5c22…
05-07 16:26:37	Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xa58ce9…
05-07 16:12:15	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x90184d…
05-07 16:11:57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0x2ea77f…
05-06 20:27:44	Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x6f33ad…
05-06 16:55:39	Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0x27bb71…
05-06 16:51:10	Will Applovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x824621…
05-06 10:04:58	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x49a6c3…
05-06 10:04:36	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x7f9c70…
05-06 10:04:06	Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xa673db…
05-06 10:03:36	Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x206486…
05-06 10:02:02	Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xbfb5b3…
05-05 20:45:40	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x03acf8…
05-05 20:45:28	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x29d105…
05-05 16:19:34	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x98bf31…
05-05 16:17:42	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xa51886…
05-05 16:13:26	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x611e51…
05-05 16:12:56	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x685b2c…
05-04 16:19:56	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xe93f48…
05-04 16:19:22	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x215de6…
05-03 07:42:54	Magic vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x6a1f62…
05-03 07:42:42	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x0f037b…
05-02 08:41:48	76ers vs. Celtics	Celtics	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x3cb9a7…
05-01 07:39:12	Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x55e65a…
05-01 07:38:32	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Cavaliers	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x54c267…
04-30 08:09:52	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xd0ece1…
04-30 08:00:44	Knicks vs. Hawks	Hawks	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x1036be…
04-30 07:44:56	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x35a37c…
04-29 07:21:44	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x76fd45…
04-28 07:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x84b524…
04-28 07:35:10	Hawks vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x2f7f60…