Late-Harvest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.66K

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

72.0%

Resolved

115

Trades

796

lifetime

Volume

$65.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

$1.39K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 18:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Politics

79% 66% -$2,420

Other

20% 70% -$289

Crypto

0% 100% +$51

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-528	-$516	98¢	$-519	-$3	05-06 01:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-400	-$312	82¢	$-326	-$14	05-08 18:41
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+180	$166	92¢	$166	+$1	10-28 16:21
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+260	$173	55¢	$142	-$31	10-28 16:12
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	+150	$128	94¢	$140	+$13	10-27 01:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	+141	$85	71¢	$100	+$15	10-28 16:19
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	+0	-$15	55¢	$0	+$15	10-28 02:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	23	$6.8K	6,110	1,137	+4,973	Yes	+$6	02-03 20:23
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	9	$3.3K	1,657	1,657	+0	No	+$4	03-04 16:14
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	119	$2.9K	2,536	1,118	+1,419	No	-$35	04-15 21:45
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	28	$2.2K	1,622	1,622	-0	Yes	-$85	02-28 06:45
Trump goes to space in 2026?	41	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	09-01 12:22
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	10	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$150	01-03 18:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.6K	2,300	2,300	+0	Yes	-$1,535	05-09 05:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	15	$1.5K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$88	04-22 03:21
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	10	$1.5K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$43	03-08 19:56
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$569	04-08 04:09
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	21	$1.4K	1,019	1,019	+0	Yes	-$55	03-03 14:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	16	$1.3K	1,750	1,750	+0	Yes	-$221	03-01 07:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$1.2K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$27	05-22 18:27
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	10	$1.0K	714	510	+204	No	+$48	01-31 17:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	10	$969	1,110	1,110	+0	Yes	-$143	04-07 14:40
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	9	$968	600	1,600	-1,000	Yes	-$680	01-07 07:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	4	$962	500	500	+0	No	+$17	04-13 16:54
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	4	$945	500	500	+0	No	+$17	01-13 22:18
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	12	$917	750	750	+0	No	+$170	01-31 15:21
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	6	$916	800	800	+0	Yes	+$468	09-21 16:16
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	6	$845	636	500	+136	No	+$91	04-21 20:15
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	21	$820	735	735	+0	No	+$3	03-03 21:42
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	10	$806	500	500	+0	No	+$62	04-19 17:31
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	13	$798	1,250	1,250	+0	Yes	-$663	02-28 07:09
will trump meet with friedrich merz in january 2026	9	$796	694	250	+444	No	+$32	01-31 06:00
will khamenei leave iran by december 31	3	$787	500	500	+0	No	+$123	02-28 19:03
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	4	$716	500	500	+0	No	+$61	03-02 20:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$673	800	800	+0	No	-$191	05-22 21:36
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	4	$647	700	0	+700	No	+$53	01-15 12:02
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	14	$628	580	580	+0	No	+$7	10-26 00:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 18:47:50	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x1fcc9e…
10-28 18:43:26	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0xa45eaf…
10-28 18:15:55	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xe1c75e…
10-28 16:31:13	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	135	1¢	$1	0x106da2…
10-28 16:21:43	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x426285…
10-28 16:19:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x2182c9…
10-28 16:12:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	60	56¢	$34	0x2071ab…
10-28 16:09:29	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x156774…
10-28 16:08:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x7b3652…
10-28 16:07:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x50b01b…
10-28 15:56:19	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x9c49f2…
10-28 15:45:44	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0xdf61cf…
10-28 13:32:17	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	SELL	71	95¢	$68	0x155ecc…
10-28 02:15:44	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	70	65¢	$46	0x0b4f15…
10-28 02:07:06	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	30	65¢	$19	0x412c6a…
10-28 00:22:18	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0x605787…
10-28 00:08:32	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x694ef0…
10-27 23:42:12	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x781f12…
10-27 23:09:14	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x6558aa…
10-27 22:23:24	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	BUY	45	79¢	$36	0xd38ea3…
10-27 21:23:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xc1b1b3…
10-27 21:20:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	70	63¢	$44	0xc2c372…
10-27 20:55:29	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xed3646…
10-27 20:49:26	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x52ba8f…
10-27 20:41:21	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x6cdb09…
10-27 20:37:08	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x9c9af0…
10-27 20:36:36	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x578636…
10-27 20:34:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x9f5882…
10-27 20:28:06	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x21abda…
10-27 20:25:18	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xbdc27d…
10-27 20:24:38	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	80	93¢	$74	0xbb7af9…
10-27 20:08:53	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$0	0x39e41b…
10-27 20:08:38	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0xe20b05…
10-27 20:08:20	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0xd77c0c…
10-27 20:08:03	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x596dc9…
10-27 20:07:57	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	39	29¢	$11	0xa39e3a…
10-27 20:07:44	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xcd2828…
10-27 20:07:38	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	25	26¢	$7	0x8a0510…
10-27 20:06:50	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	37	37¢	$14	0xb6163a…
10-27 19:59:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xa170d8…
10-27 19:05:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xf7225d…
10-27 19:05:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xe18e5e…
10-27 19:05:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xa32345…
10-27 19:04:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xeb42db…
10-27 18:22:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	150	92¢	$138	0xaf7b79…
10-27 16:26:18	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	68	49¢	$33	0x4c174e…
10-27 16:26:09	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x85d9dc…
10-27 16:24:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xd3ad8a…
10-27 16:22:56	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0x520a78…
10-27 16:22:06	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$15	0x864bff…
10-27 16:01:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x6d50cd…
10-27 15:42:12	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x47b091…
10-27 15:20:27	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	42	67¢	$28	0x3c3a8a…
10-27 15:19:47	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	78	67¢	$52	0xd97b5a…
10-27 15:15:56	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x38e089…
10-27 01:37:23	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x7a079e…
10-26 00:11:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0x08481c…
10-26 00:11:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	115	100¢	$114	0xf462bf…
10-25 23:25:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x4c39b1…
10-25 23:19:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x5a96d0…
10-25 23:12:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	140	13¢	$18	0xc37cb4…
10-25 23:02:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	140	21¢	$29	0x1d9a72…
10-25 22:47:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	39¢	$23	0xdfa8d9…
10-25 22:47:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	51	39¢	$20	0xd19d19…
10-25 22:47:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9	39¢	$3	0x10bb0d…
10-25 22:17:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4d4b24…
10-25 22:17:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	87	42¢	$37	0x1f53a0…
10-25 22:17:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x079f45…
10-25 22:16:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	120	44¢	$53	0x7c5ad5…
10-25 22:14:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0xd17bb0…
10-22 13:56:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	170	96¢	$163	0xfaa730…
10-21 20:11:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	70	74¢	$52	0x01e188…
10-21 20:06:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x666d9b…
10-14 10:44:08	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	150	76¢	$114	0xf1c1ae…
10-13 05:28:24	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	46¢	$138	0x95f3fe…
09-25 17:10:12	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	66	66¢	$44	0x61fc6b…
09-25 17:09:41	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	84	66¢	$55	0x0f0688…
09-23 11:51:05	Dota 2: Cake Team vs Daxak Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group A	Daxak Team	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x8feeba…
09-21 16:16:19	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	397	97¢	$385	0x36b3c5…
09-21 16:15:59	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xf1b551…
09-21 12:12:44	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	173	96¢	$166	0x61ec4f…
09-20 21:55:28	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	500	10¢	$52	0xa0f4e9…
09-20 18:02:39	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	200	56¢	$112	0x333d1f…
09-18 21:57:10	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	158	8¢	$13	0xec6877…
09-18 21:51:06	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	150	13¢	$20	0x48928f…
09-18 21:49:45	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x7d5bd9…
09-18 17:26:16	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	139	6¢	$8	0xcd129a…
09-18 17:26:16	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	134	5¢	$7	0xb87739…
09-18 17:26:16	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$11	0x985572…
09-18 17:26:16	Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	28	6¢	$2	0x6252cb…
09-18 17:25:12	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0xf88e41…
09-18 02:08:00	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	600	28¢	$168	0x2e0696…
09-01 15:40:10	Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?	No	BUY	150	42¢	$63	0x96ee4c…
09-01 14:38:40	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xcadf82…
09-01 12:33:39	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1822ec…
09-01 12:22:28	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	791	98¢	$777	0x4a3795…
08-26 12:37:40	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe4bc7d…
08-25 16:22:16	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x776659…
08-23 12:51:04	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xf289bd…
08-23 12:44:00	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x71e7e7…