Paltry-Particular — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$784

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

113

Trades

544

lifetime

Volume

$177.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$326

Open exposure

$5.82K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-27 20:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Politics

49% 69% +$1,988

Other

42% 71% -$1,563

Tech

8% 87% +$637

Crypto

0% 50% +$150

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+6,198	$5,702	92¢	$5.7K	+$31	10-27 20:05
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	-1,159	-$140	6¢	$-69	+$71	09-14 14:29
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	-20	-$4	31¢	$-6	-$2	09-14 18:40
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+4	-$21	94¢	$4	+$25	10-27 12:59
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	-202	-$9	2¢	$-3	+$6	09-14 18:40
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	-52	-$17	3¢	$-2	+$15	06-25 22:33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1	$972	56¢	$0	-$971	10-27 20:00
Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	-6	$0	5¢	$-0	$0	09-14 18:41
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+0	-$41	92¢	$0	+$41	10-27 12:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	36	$18.5K	11,329	11,328	+1	Yes	+$583	01-30 16:25
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$14.8K	11,198	5,000	+6,198	open	—	10-27 20:05
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	7	$12.9K	5,038	8,538	-3,500	Yes	-$42	01-28 17:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$12.4K	8,770	8,769	+1	open	—	10-27 20:00
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$12.3K	8,429	4,115	+4,314	No	+$63	02-28 19:13
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	12	$7.6K	4,371	4,371	+0	open	—	10-27 12:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	17	$6.8K	6,442	6,442	+0	No	+$1,726	09-30 20:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$6.7K	6,672	6,564	+108	Yes	+$316	06-14 21:29
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$5.4K	3,126	3,126	+0	Yes	+$729	04-16 15:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	32	$4.5K	7,000	6,999	+1	No	-$2,443	05-31 18:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	20	$4.3K	24,784	0	+24,784	No	-$4,254	07-10 16:00
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$4.2K	4,200	0	+4,200	No	+$38	01-07 20:32
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	10	$3.9K	3,717	716	+3,001	Yes	+$513	05-28 17:02
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	11	$3.9K	3,735	235	+3,500	Yes	+$64	02-04 19:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	20	$3.4K	2,631	2,630	+1	No	-$460	05-31 18:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	46	$3.0K	9,086	4,077	+5,009	No	-$801	05-29 15:54
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	7	$2.9K	1,541	1,541	+0	Yes	+$150	04-23 18:56
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	9	$2.7K	4,280	1,280	+3,000	Yes	+$2,442	09-14 15:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.5K	2,515	0	+2,515	Yes	+$3	06-17 16:54
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	7	$2.3K	1,284	1,283	+1	Yes	+$198	04-24 18:33
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$2.3K	2,260	0	+2,260	No	+$7	04-30 20:02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	12	$2.2K	281,132	0	+281,132	No	-$2,209	09-15 17:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$2.0K	2,031	0	+2,031	Yes	+$10	04-28 14:16
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	1	$1.8K	1,810	0	+1,810	No	+$4	05-31 23:04
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	8	$1.8K	1,831	0	+1,831	Yes	+$60	05-16 17:38
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	15	$1.6K	1,848	900	+948	Yes	+$439	06-11 17:49
will the government shutdown last 10 days or more 772 652	1	$1.4K	1,440	0	+1,440	No	+$12	02-03 17:39
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$1.3K	5,368	5,118	+250	No	+$246	02-11 13:30
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.2K	631	631	+0	Yes	+$30	05-28 16:08
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.2K	1,226	0	+1,226	Yes	+$29	05-14 17:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:05:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6,198	92¢	$5,702	0xb181b4…
10-27 20:00:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8,769	65¢	$5,703	0x307dec…
10-27 13:00:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	166	78¢	$130	0x7caa7b…
10-27 12:59:32	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	136	93¢	$127	0xc7c41a…
10-27 12:57:57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	208	79¢	$165	0x8df735…
10-27 12:57:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	81	10¢	$8	0xe9fcff…
10-27 12:57:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	738	9¢	$69	0x40a8fa…
10-27 12:56:59	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	94¢	$23	0x7df988…
10-27 12:56:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	614	10¢	$64	0xd3e53c…
10-27 12:51:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	8,395	76¢	$6,380	0xcc773c…
10-27 12:49:24	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	2,000	91¢	$1,820	0x2f3f6e…
10-27 12:49:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5,000	91¢	$4,550	0x3eeaa0…
10-13 13:29:10	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1,433	30¢	$431	0xe98e5f…
10-13 13:28:25	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	480	90¢	$432	0xd815c2…
10-09 17:15:32	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	2,480	90¢	$2,232	0xfd4528…
10-08 19:00:41	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5,000	91¢	$4,550	0xdfc41d…
09-30 20:45:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	299	68¢	$204	0x2e1f04…
09-30 20:09:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2,662	68¢	$1,810	0x8cf077…
09-30 12:47:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	542	68¢	$369	0x44af75…
09-30 12:38:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	12	68¢	$8	0x43376c…
09-30 12:38:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	257	68¢	$175	0xab3bbe…
09-30 12:38:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x09cb12…
09-30 12:38:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	46	68¢	$31	0x9c3e24…
09-30 12:38:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	46	68¢	$31	0x48eb59…
09-30 12:38:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x076325…
09-30 12:37:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	40	68¢	$27	0x9bf439…
09-30 12:37:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,086	68¢	$739	0x30a027…
09-29 18:02:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	39¢	$390	0x288ead…
09-29 18:02:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,000	39¢	$1,560	0xbb1bd4…
09-23 17:37:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,080	1¢	$17	0xe5ae4e…
09-23 17:37:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	739	70¢	$517	0x4995de…
09-23 17:37:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,042	67¢	$698	0xd1726e…
09-21 16:52:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	739	68¢	$503	0x651941…
09-21 16:51:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,080	1¢	$19	0x7226dd…
09-21 16:51:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,042	49¢	$511	0x993b83…
09-15 17:24:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0xfb2a65…
09-15 17:23:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18,000	1¢	$180	0xd243ed…
09-15 17:22:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,000	1¢	$400	0x619835…
09-14 19:20:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	716	1¢	$6	0xb9196c…
09-14 19:18:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,000	1¢	$320	0x861f0f…
09-14 19:17:42	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	400	86¢	$344	0xce9956…
09-14 18:41:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,561	1¢	$12	0xfb549c…
09-14 18:41:00	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0xe66943…
09-14 18:40:54	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x625f66…
09-14 18:40:45	Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	202	5¢	$9	0x5e241d…
09-14 18:38:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$2	0xc5e4e2…
09-14 18:38:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18,474	1¢	$148	0xb2e7d1…
09-14 18:37:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	400	36¢	$144	0x166fbe…
09-14 15:29:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67,000	1¢	$469	0x441738…
09-14 15:28:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0xaed787…
09-14 15:26:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30,000	1¢	$210	0x0ca9ec…
09-14 15:20:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,580	1¢	$102	0x142e7a…
09-14 15:19:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0x98aeda…
09-14 14:32:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	48,600	1¢	$340	0x524ae7…
09-14 14:30:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	280	83¢	$232	0x1c1004…
09-14 14:29:54	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,159	12¢	$140	0x868ad4…
07-10 18:34:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	80	40¢	$32	0x18e588…
07-10 18:33:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	148	40¢	$59	0xfd3ed0…
07-10 18:32:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	40¢	$400	0x308cb1…
07-10 16:00:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	16¢	$810	0x4ad6a2…
07-10 15:58:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,405	16¢	$870	0x4feca8…
07-09 15:51:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$61	0x89bdc5…
07-09 15:49:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	15¢	$6	0xd52b80…
07-09 15:49:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xa5e6bd…
07-09 15:49:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xa4f990…
07-09 15:49:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	128	15¢	$19	0x586697…
07-09 15:49:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$5	0xddb995…
07-09 15:49:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$76	0xd8d74d…
07-09 15:49:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	325	15¢	$49	0x549a5a…
07-09 15:49:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	15¢	$9	0x3d229e…
07-09 15:49:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$61	0x22a59e…
07-09 15:49:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x059bc3…
07-09 15:07:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	14¢	$56	0x8be70c…
07-09 15:04:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	485	37¢	$179	0x5c99e5…
07-09 15:04:23	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	400	83¢	$332	0xd4c92b…
07-09 15:03:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,082	37¢	$770	0x09649c…
07-09 15:02:40	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0x0e1d72…
07-09 15:02:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	15¢	$3	0x540dd9…
07-09 15:01:41	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	400	83¢	$332	0xf46fed…
07-09 15:00:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x8a5925…
07-09 15:00:22	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	186	83¢	$154	0xbf9e87…
07-09 15:00:01	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x01b305…
07-09 14:31:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,778	16¢	$279	0xabdff6…
07-09 14:23:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xd94010…
07-09 14:07:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x44498e…
07-09 14:05:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	485	37¢	$179	0x7e5a3d…
07-08 23:16:28	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	SELL	400	51¢	$204	0x201844…
07-08 18:57:17	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	Yes	BUY	478	97¢	$464	0x2f4b1c…
07-08 18:55:28	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa63c91…
07-08 18:55:28	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	443	59¢	$263	0x314dbe…
07-01 16:11:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,417	19¢	$1,958	0x32474d…
07-01 12:08:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	212	95¢	$201	0x45f54d…
07-01 12:06:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x533796…
07-01 12:05:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x28cdab…
07-01 11:21:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd0a1d6…
07-01 11:21:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 6	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xcdbead…
07-01 11:21:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$132	0x6c5076…
07-01 11:21:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf42beb…
07-01 11:20:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	318	94¢	$301	0x51755b…
06-25 22:33:58	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	32¢	$17	0xe8cd70…