Plump-Mill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

123

lifetime

Volume

$2.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 08-13 13:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

45% 100% +$3

Crypto

24% 100% +$1

Politics

24% 100% +$1

Tech

7% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$177	178	+178	open	—	08-06 13:12
squid fdv above 150m one day after launch 822	1	$177	177	+177	open	—	08-05 18:35
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$177	177	+177	open	—	08-09 23:49
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$175	176	+176	open	—	08-11 03:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$174	186	+186	open	—	08-13 01:20
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	1	$154	155	+155	open	—	06-26 07:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$152	155	+155	open	—	05-20 05:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$148	151	+151	open	—	05-15 08:13
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$142	148	+148	open	—	05-14 19:24
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$100	103	+103	open	—	07-30 15:10
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$83	86	+86	Yes	+$3	05-12 13:47
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$68	69	+69	Yes	+$1	05-05 13:59
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$65	65	+65	open	—	04-01 11:52
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$55	56	+56	Yes	+$1	05-09 21:45
will gold gc hit high 4400 by end of june copy 20260609185905943	1	$49	50	+50	open	—	06-29 17:00
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$45	45	+45	open	—	04-14 17:32
will coin reach 195 in june 2026	1	$34	35	+35	open	—	06-28 21:59
will ethena reach 0pt16 in march	1	$23	23	+23	open	—	04-01 00:24
will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$23	23	+23	open	—	07-31 20:35
will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	2	$22	22	+22	open	—	07-28 02:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$21	21	+21	open	—	04-24 00:11
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$18	19	+19	open	—	04-26 16:54
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	1	$18	18	+18	open	—	06-29 02:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$17	20	+20	open	—	04-21 09:32
will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	1	$14	14	+14	open	—	07-29 21:25
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	2	$12	12	+12	open	—	01-19 09:46
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$12	12	+12	open	—	06-26 20:03
nflx above 200 on february 27 2026	1	$10	10	+10	open	—	02-25 17:33
will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$9	9	+9	open	—	01-23 17:33
will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	2	$8	8	+8	open	—	07-22 01:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 13:24:18	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x24e62d…
08-13 01:20:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	186	94¢	$174	0x59cc6f…
08-11 17:17:55	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2e8af1…
08-11 03:31:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	176	99¢	$175	0xb161dd…
08-11 00:12:42	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xce2b2b…
08-09 23:49:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	177	100¢	$177	0x015f78…
08-06 13:12:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	178	100¢	$177	0x93765c…
08-05 18:35:05	squid fdv above 150m one day after launch 822	No	BUY	177	100¢	$177	0x913de1…
07-31 20:35:51	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x526a9b…
07-30 15:10:24	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	103	98¢	$100	0x23cf82…
07-29 21:25:35	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xabc6b9…
07-28 02:40:18	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x70ae18…
07-25 04:04:40	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x7262e4…
07-24 16:41:07	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x094872…
07-22 01:00:48	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x1f1c10…
07-22 00:20:51	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xeecb9b…
07-19 16:21:00	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb98551…
07-19 16:15:30	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xf751bb…
07-16 19:39:49	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xeb534e…
07-16 16:55:52	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb96c36…
07-03 02:52:05	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x5bdf3a…
06-29 17:00:31	will gold gc hit high 4400 by end of june copy 20260609185905943	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xece896…
06-29 02:07:41	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x415f87…
06-28 21:59:19	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x30a6ec…
06-26 20:47:28	will new zealand reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120762	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xd53ce4…
06-26 20:03:19	Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf61dda…
06-26 07:05:40	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	155	100¢	$154	0xc77a07…
05-23 10:23:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9d8896…
05-22 11:07:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8fed50…
05-20 05:30:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	155	98¢	$152	0x8b3227…
05-16 01:10:49	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xc02fb5…
05-15 08:13:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	151	98¢	$148	0xd2de4e…
05-14 19:24:51	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	148	96¢	$142	0x2977e8…
05-12 13:47:00	Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	86	97¢	$83	0xf4b060…
05-09 21:45:02	Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xedd505…
05-08 23:21:47	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x528425…
05-05 13:59:52	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x8e54b8…
04-29 01:55:34	Will XRP reach $2.00 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x458679…
04-28 16:48:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa9255b…
04-26 16:54:10	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x3b58ba…
04-26 16:11:00	Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa3067c…
04-25 00:01:10	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x68da74…
04-24 00:11:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xb1a10a…
04-21 09:32:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x05c882…
04-19 11:45:46	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xab5274…
04-19 02:11:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe96867…
04-18 10:19:02	Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c93fb…
04-17 19:01:54	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x161992…
04-17 17:24:28	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0db98d…
04-17 09:12:18	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xb4a662…
04-16 19:26:48	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0xd5f27f…
04-16 19:16:06	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x697bc3…
04-16 09:22:32	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb19979…
04-16 03:52:16	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x30926d…
04-15 14:21:56	Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbc0457…
04-14 17:32:16	Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x060178…
04-12 09:09:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4dd83c…
04-11 21:46:57	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1f88f2…
04-10 13:12:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1a371c…
04-07 01:07:29	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc070e0…
04-05 23:29:39	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0883ca…
04-05 17:28:57	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xed776b…
04-05 14:50:05	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfaa15f…
04-05 10:33:59	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6a6d56…
04-01 11:52:43	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x0fcd6e…
04-01 00:24:39	will ethena reach 0pt16 in march	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x4d5c89…
03-30 17:55:23	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4efbb…
03-30 05:54:50	will xai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfe0d58…
03-29 14:12:06	will bnb reach 700 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6c7aa…
03-29 10:10:08	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x011054…
03-29 07:19:08	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x618ac8…
03-27 18:43:19	will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7de0de…
03-27 04:09:59	pltr above 130 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x685b78…
03-26 20:17:29	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbe4157…
03-26 15:25:11	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4a8ff5…
03-26 13:18:01	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf6fc42…
03-24 10:13:05	will deepseek have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x795b09…
03-24 04:07:09	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x9bfc23…
03-23 19:11:49	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcb09ba…
03-23 16:45:43	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6ddffa…
03-22 23:02:41	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe11935…
03-21 15:32:43	will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd05936…
03-21 05:06:29	nflx above 160 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x38ef6a…
03-12 04:00:57	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdbf704…
03-11 15:08:11	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5e08f4…
03-10 23:18:47	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe172e3…
03-10 21:42:47	will xrp reach 2pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x03f311…
03-10 18:50:25	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa52f88…
03-10 05:39:23	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x81af9a…
03-09 12:34:25	googl above 360 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x69f276…
03-08 21:38:03	nflx above 60 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x46eb3a…
03-08 01:02:19	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdcc8d6…
03-07 22:08:05	aapl above 300 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x41d9cb…
03-07 13:59:11	will zai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x7c9965…
03-07 00:46:07	will bitcoin dip to 30k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x01c8b9…
03-05 12:00:17	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfccc9e…
03-05 00:47:35	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd01dd3…
03-04 11:25:35	meta above 760 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x9aa89e…
03-04 10:31:17	meta above 760 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd2c638…
03-04 08:51:59	msft above 465 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xab7c67…