Plump-Mill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 05-23 10:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

39% 100% +$3

Politics

37% 100% +$1

Crypto

23% 100% +$1

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$152	155	+155	open	—	05-20 05:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$148	151	+151	open	—	05-15 08:13
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$142	148	+148	open	—	05-14 19:24
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$83	86	+86	Yes	+$3	05-12 13:47
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$68	69	+69	Yes	+$1	05-05 13:59
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$65	65	+65	open	—	04-01 11:52
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$55	56	+56	Yes	+$1	05-09 21:45
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$45	45	+45	open	—	04-14 17:32
will ethena reach 0pt16 in march	1	$23	23	+23	open	—	04-01 00:24
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$21	21	+21	open	—	04-24 00:11
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$18	19	+19	open	—	04-26 16:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$17	20	+20	open	—	04-21 09:32
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	2	$12	12	+12	open	—	01-19 09:46
nflx above 200 on february 27 2026	1	$10	10	+10	open	—	02-25 17:33
will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$9	9	+9	open	—	01-23 17:33
will alibaba have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$8	8	+8	open	—	01-06 07:47
will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	2	$8	8	+8	open	—	02-21 19:18
meta above 540 on january 30 2026	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	01-09 22:12
will chainlink dip to 2 in march	3	$7	7	+7	open	—	03-26 15:25
will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$6	7	+7	open	—	02-24 00:48
will ethereum dip to 2000 in january 2026 647	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	01-12 18:11
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$6	6	+6	open	—	04-16 19:16
googl above 400 on february 27 2026	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	02-20 14:06
tsla above 550 on january 30 2026	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	01-11 14:10
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	3	$5	5	+5	open	—	03-30 17:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-23 10:23
si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	01-16 13:18
will chainlink hit 23 in january	1	$4	5	+5	open	—	01-15 06:45
will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	2	$4	5	+5	open	—	03-27 18:43
aapl above 290 on february 27 2026	1	$4	4	+4	open	—	02-23 03:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 10:23:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9d8896…
05-22 11:07:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8fed50…
05-20 05:30:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	155	98¢	$152	0x8b3227…
05-16 01:10:49	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xc02fb5…
05-15 08:13:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	151	98¢	$148	0xd2de4e…
05-14 19:24:51	Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	148	96¢	$142	0x2977e8…
05-12 13:47:00	Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	86	97¢	$83	0xf4b060…
05-09 21:45:02	Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xedd505…
05-08 23:21:47	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x528425…
05-05 13:59:52	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x8e54b8…
04-29 01:55:34	Will XRP reach $2.00 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x458679…
04-28 16:48:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa9255b…
04-26 16:54:10	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x3b58ba…
04-26 16:11:00	Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa3067c…
04-25 00:01:10	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x68da74…
04-24 00:11:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xb1a10a…
04-21 09:32:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x05c882…
04-19 11:45:46	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xab5274…
04-19 02:11:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe96867…
04-18 10:19:02	Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1c93fb…
04-17 19:01:54	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x161992…
04-17 17:24:28	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0db98d…
04-17 09:12:18	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xb4a662…
04-16 19:26:48	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0xd5f27f…
04-16 19:16:06	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x697bc3…
04-16 09:22:32	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb19979…
04-16 03:52:16	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x30926d…
04-15 14:21:56	Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbc0457…
04-14 17:32:16	Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x060178…
04-12 09:09:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4dd83c…
04-11 21:46:57	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1f88f2…
04-10 13:12:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1a371c…
04-07 01:07:29	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc070e0…
04-05 23:29:39	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0883ca…
04-05 17:28:57	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xed776b…
04-05 14:50:05	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfaa15f…
04-05 10:33:59	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6a6d56…
04-01 11:52:43	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x0fcd6e…
04-01 00:24:39	will ethena reach 0pt16 in march	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x4d5c89…
03-30 17:55:23	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4efbb…
03-30 05:54:50	will xai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfe0d58…
03-29 14:12:06	will bnb reach 700 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6c7aa…
03-29 10:10:08	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x011054…
03-29 07:19:08	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x618ac8…
03-27 18:43:19	will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7de0de…
03-27 04:09:59	pltr above 130 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x685b78…
03-26 20:17:29	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbe4157…
03-26 15:25:11	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4a8ff5…
03-26 13:18:01	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf6fc42…
03-24 10:13:05	will deepseek have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x795b09…
03-24 04:07:09	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x9bfc23…
03-23 19:11:49	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcb09ba…
03-23 16:45:43	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6ddffa…
03-22 23:02:41	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe11935…
03-21 15:32:43	will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd05936…
03-21 05:06:29	nflx above 160 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x38ef6a…
03-12 04:00:57	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdbf704…
03-11 15:08:11	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5e08f4…
03-10 23:18:47	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe172e3…
03-10 21:42:47	will xrp reach 2pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x03f311…
03-10 18:50:25	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa52f88…
03-10 05:39:23	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x81af9a…
03-09 12:34:25	googl above 360 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x69f276…
03-08 21:38:03	nflx above 60 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x46eb3a…
03-08 01:02:19	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdcc8d6…
03-07 22:08:05	aapl above 300 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x41d9cb…
03-07 13:59:11	will zai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x7c9965…
03-07 00:46:07	will bitcoin dip to 30k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x01c8b9…
03-05 12:00:17	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfccc9e…
03-05 00:47:35	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd01dd3…
03-04 11:25:35	meta above 760 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x9aa89e…
03-04 10:31:17	meta above 760 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd2c638…
03-04 08:51:59	msft above 465 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xab7c67…
03-04 08:22:09	will solana reach 160 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe3bfbc…
03-04 07:10:03	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x171aa5…
03-03 21:14:45	bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdac60a…
03-03 11:53:19	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1086b2…
02-25 17:33:10	nflx above 200 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4435e1…
02-24 00:48:56	will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x35c41c…
02-23 15:37:04	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x5bbcce…
02-23 13:55:12	will bitcoin reach 95k in february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf37100…
02-23 03:01:20	aapl above 290 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xbe1e5c…
02-21 19:18:14	will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8dfa80…
02-20 14:06:48	googl above 400 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x827a26…
02-02 01:37:02	will bitcoin reach 120k in february 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1fda5b…
01-23 17:33:00	will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa295c8…
01-22 18:03:44	meta above 780 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8a7058…
01-21 04:51:22	will solana dip to 50 in january 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xdc9aac…
01-19 09:46:36	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6c9699…
01-17 16:57:52	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x74af68…
01-16 13:18:28	si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb350f5…
01-15 06:45:48	will chainlink hit 23 in january	No	BUY	5	99¢	$4	0x3c14cd…
01-12 18:11:55	will ethereum dip to 2000 in january 2026 647	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x97d9a6…
01-11 14:10:48	tsla above 550 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8c53f9…
01-09 22:12:42	meta above 540 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x82b64d…
01-06 07:47:37	will alibaba have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcdabe6…