Scared-Garb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$37.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.19K

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,487

lifetime

Volume

$1.58M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$633

Open exposure

$21.1K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 10-28 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

48% 50% -$42,500

Politics

43% 35% +$41,642

Sports

8% 100% +$37,045

Crypto

1% 100% +$1,270

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 110 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+36,101	$23,228	58¢	$21.1K	-$2,109	10-28 22:32
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+157	$108	15¢	$23	-$85	06-30 14:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	154	$244.7K	138,256	148,256	-10,000	Yes	+$36,278	02-02 20:17
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$179.0K	171,029	11,460	+159,569	No	+$3,307	03-04 16:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$164.3K	170,527	0	+170,527	Yes	+$6,217	04-08 20:45
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	458	$132.6K	590,015	100,845	+489,170	No	-$100,668	07-28 15:21
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	17	$114.3K	85,197	30,000	+55,197	Yes	+$822	01-28 19:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	168	$84.7K	150,999	0	+150,999	No	+$66,340	09-02 12:46
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	313	$83.8K	117,999	0	+117,999	Max Holloway	+$34,220	07-12 03:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	100	$75.3K	161,483	0	+161,483	Yes	+$86,188	03-12 21:14
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	65	$58.1K	130,289	0	+130,289	Yes	+$72,201	06-14 22:02
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	158	$47.9K	194,462	0	+194,462	No	-$47,932	03-12 19:55
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	78	$46.4K	48,158	0	+48,158	No	+$1,803	07-19 19:39
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	17	$42.8K	43,672	0	+43,672	Yes	+$831	04-13 17:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$29.8K	50,873	0	+50,873	No	-$29,804	06-25 22:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$28.2K	197,249	0	+197,249	No	-$28,187	05-29 01:18
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$27.6K	29,635	0	+29,635	No	+$2,074	07-19 18:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$27.1K	0	27,219	-27,219	No	-$82	06-18 22:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	116	$25.6K	29,224	14,000	+15,224	Yes	+$13,917	02-28 06:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	32	$23.2K	36,101	0	+36,101	open	—	10-28 22:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	32	$23.2K	26,245	25,419	+826	Yes	-$100	08-31 21:39
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	28	$14.4K	36,000	0	+36,000	No	-$14,360	04-21 22:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$12.7K	40,753	0	+40,753	No	-$12,678	06-14 22:28
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	31	$11.5K	49,293	0	+49,293	No	-$11,474	01-26 19:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$10.0K	10,071	0	+10,071	No	+$70	06-02 17:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	312	$8.8K	79,999	0	+79,999	No	-$8,800	03-07 01:59
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$8.8K	9,504	0	+9,504	No	+$751	07-19 21:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	94	$6.3K	30,000	0	+30,000	No	-$6,320	05-29 07:09
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	7	$6.3K	5,777	5,777	+0	Yes	+$1,675	01-24 00:14
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	67	$5.5K	27,000	0	+27,000	No	-$5,470	01-24 02:02
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$5.4K	9,584	0	+9,584	No	-$5,414	04-21 22:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	13	$5.3K	22,000	0	+22,000	Yes	-$5,280	07-08 18:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:32:46	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	192	48¢	$92	0x064949…
10-28 22:32:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	835	48¢	$401	0x2b2fe9…
10-28 22:19:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	70	48¢	$34	0xa7e421…
10-28 22:18:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	58	48¢	$28	0x9bf58a…
10-28 22:16:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x1d3b2d…
10-28 22:16:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0xd4e9d4…
10-28 22:15:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x61432f…
10-28 22:14:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	28	48¢	$13	0x89531e…
10-28 22:14:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x7c0392…
10-28 22:13:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xe62d3a…
10-28 22:10:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	250	48¢	$120	0xa195c4…
10-28 22:09:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2,181	48¢	$1,047	0xbd33a6…
10-28 22:08:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xb0936d…
10-28 22:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0xf3339c…
10-28 22:02:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	212	48¢	$102	0xd2f182…
10-28 22:00:49	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x672beb…
10-28 22:00:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc70ec9…
10-28 21:59:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	58	48¢	$28	0x1598b0…
10-28 21:57:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x96f0c2…
10-28 21:56:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	244	48¢	$117	0xf92679…
10-28 21:54:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,777	48¢	$853	0xce9905…
10-28 18:54:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	10,000	51¢	$5,100	0x88c200…
10-27 18:22:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3,301	76¢	$2,509	0xc8be4b…
10-27 18:22:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0xc2839f…
10-27 18:21:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x2c4804…
10-27 18:21:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x0b19c1…
10-27 18:20:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	76¢	$10	0x10ef5a…
10-27 18:20:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,061	76¢	$807	0x2b50da…
10-27 18:20:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	64	76¢	$49	0x630802…
10-27 18:19:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x9b7dfc…
10-27 18:19:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5,415	76¢	$4,116	0x881942…
09-02 12:46:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	247	56¢	$138	0xfd80e0…
09-02 12:44:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x0cb17e…
09-02 12:44:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x3876c8…
09-02 12:43:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	840	56¢	$470	0x3fea8f…
09-02 12:43:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0x64eb28…
09-02 12:43:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,862	56¢	$1,043	0x675399…
09-01 02:49:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	357	56¢	$200	0xa801b0…
09-01 02:49:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	251	56¢	$141	0xac672f…
09-01 02:48:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xe1a10b…
09-01 02:42:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	521	56¢	$292	0x6fe189…
09-01 02:42:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x043160…
09-01 02:40:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xc243a3…
09-01 02:39:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0xa3cd2a…
09-01 02:36:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x17bb3b…
09-01 02:36:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	639	56¢	$358	0x191429…
09-01 02:36:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x37d4f1…
09-01 02:36:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6651bc…
09-01 02:36:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x21e711…
09-01 02:34:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	220	56¢	$123	0x717ab0…
09-01 02:29:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	443	56¢	$248	0x46273e…
09-01 02:27:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x07ae6b…
09-01 02:27:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x1c1c1a…
09-01 02:26:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xa8f6a5…
09-01 02:25:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	227	56¢	$127	0x359a7b…
09-01 02:23:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x67cddc…
09-01 02:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	821	56¢	$460	0x9e7669…
09-01 02:21:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	624	56¢	$349	0x493844…
09-01 02:20:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xc856f5…
09-01 02:19:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	26	56¢	$15	0x221363…
09-01 02:17:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	668	56¢	$374	0xb1217c…
09-01 02:16:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x91b6c4…
09-01 02:16:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0x0eb08a…
09-01 02:16:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	329	56¢	$184	0xf78d6f…
09-01 02:13:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	110	56¢	$62	0x748eb3…
09-01 02:11:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	952	56¢	$533	0x251dec…
09-01 02:11:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x931724…
09-01 02:10:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x822851…
09-01 02:09:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	91	56¢	$51	0x305469…
09-01 02:07:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xba99e1…
09-01 02:06:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x8e5d05…
09-01 02:05:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7d8470…
09-01 02:04:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa30efc…
09-01 02:02:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	216	56¢	$121	0xba0db2…
09-01 02:02:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	108	56¢	$61	0x0409b7…
09-01 02:02:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x715014…
09-01 02:00:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0xecfe2d…
09-01 02:00:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	169	56¢	$95	0x9eb3a3…
09-01 02:00:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	191	56¢	$107	0xb6ea90…
09-01 01:59:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	600	56¢	$336	0xe3a464…
09-01 01:59:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x2b7aa9…
09-01 01:58:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	445	56¢	$249	0x0a81d9…
09-01 01:57:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	227	56¢	$127	0xcf7f89…
09-01 01:56:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0xfcefc0…
09-01 01:54:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	227	56¢	$127	0x763882…
09-01 01:52:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x13c6f1…
09-01 01:48:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xc3ba25…
09-01 01:48:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0xcc0a19…
09-01 01:47:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	283	56¢	$158	0x1cce75…
09-01 01:46:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,998	56¢	$3,919	0xd7cd6d…
09-01 01:46:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0xfce9b0…
09-01 01:45:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xa07b17…
09-01 01:43:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xb82627…
09-01 01:43:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x1101a8…
09-01 01:42:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	33	56¢	$19	0xd81da3…
09-01 01:41:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0xb1a3ab…
09-01 01:38:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	66	56¢	$37	0xbdf8e6…
09-01 01:36:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x41da0f…
09-01 01:33:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	184	56¢	$103	0x8c1556…
09-01 01:33:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	220	56¢	$123	0xb6e845…