Warmhearted-Infrastructure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$52

Unrealized P&L

+$157

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

855

lifetime

Volume

$14.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$73

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-10 18:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

37% 100% +$3

Politics

28% 100% +$49

Crypto

22% 50% +$0

Sports

10% — —

Tech

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-250	$-175	8¢	$-21	+$154	05-31 15:04
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$14	84¢	$17	+$2	06-02 13:58
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+12	$11	92¢	$11	+$0	06-06 18:15
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+12	$10	84¢	$10	$-0	06-01 14:44
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	+10	$8	84¢	$8	+$0	06-09 12:01
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	+7	$5	77¢	$5	+$0	06-10 18:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of solana be between 110 120 on january 23	5	$909	500	500	+0	open	—	01-21 14:47
will mrbeast hit 475 million subscribers by march 31 387 656 755 785	2	$736	400	400	+0	open	—	01-31 15:14
will xrp dip to 1pt8 january 19 25	32	$647	400	400	+0	open	—	01-23 10:38
googl above 320 on january 30 2026	5	$447	282	282	+0	open	—	01-26 15:00
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	11	$436	409	115	+294	open	—	04-21 15:59
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	5	$426	300	300	+0	open	—	02-02 21:38
will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	2	$388	401	0	+401	open	—	04-02 20:29
xrp above 1pt9 on january 21	3	$326	200	200	+0	open	—	01-19 16:05
Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	8	$281	142	142	+0	open	—	04-30 03:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	2	$276	139	139	+0	open	—	04-24 12:56
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$260	500	500	+0	open	—	04-22 16:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	5	$246	200	200	+0	open	—	04-21 05:23
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 31 2026 112	2	$246	250	0	+250	open	—	04-01 07:35
gc above 5000 jan 2026	4	$235	150	150	+0	open	—	01-28 01:50
will end of beginning djo be the 1 song on spotify this week 114	3	$220	150	150	+0	open	—	01-25 22:00
nvda above 195 on february 6 2026	3	$210	150	150	+0	open	—	02-02 19:30
will mike epps delusional be the 2 us netflix show this week february 3 2026	4	$207	140	140	+0	open	—	01-31 14:12
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31?	3	$200	120	86	+34	open	—	06-02 23:11
will his hers be the 2 us netflix show this week february 3 2026	6	$187	140	140	+0	open	—	02-01 06:36
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$175	0	250	-250	open	—	05-31 15:04
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	6	$171	111	111	+0	Yes	+$45	05-07 19:10
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on february 13	4	$170	90	90	+0	open	—	02-09 03:41
atp alcaraz zverev 2026 01 30	5	$148	177	177	+0	open	—	01-30 07:53
meta above 640 on january 30 2026	4	$144	100	89	+11	open	—	01-28 12:13
aapl above 270 on february 6 2026	2	$138	100	100	+0	open	—	02-02 19:23
will solana reach 130 january 26 1	2	$102	70	70	+0	open	—	01-28 11:50
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$101	134	0	+134	open	—	02-03 16:38
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	+$3	04-29 07:05
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$96	50	50	+0	open	—	03-02 15:18
meta close above 610 on march 18 2026	3	$96	49	49	+0	open	—	03-18 19:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 18:44:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xf590c2…
06-09 20:15:34	will it rain in denver on june 10	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x8623da…
06-09 20:12:22	will it rain in dallas on june 10	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xce6259…
06-09 12:59:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x2c5163…
06-09 12:01:09	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x392d65…
06-08 13:14:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x85dcd2…
06-07 17:03:37	will russia enter stavky by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xc9e27d…
06-06 18:15:13	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0xea7d64…
06-06 16:12:03	will trump say ufc this week 20260605142537494	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x38a905…
06-06 11:39:19	lol fec mcn 2026 06 06 game3	Frites Esports Club	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0xc5e84b…
06-06 11:36:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x58754b…
06-06 11:33:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xd96ec2…
06-05 21:00:39	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0xb5489f…
06-04 10:54:55	will trump say big beautiful bill during wisconsin events 20260602174202012	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x9235f7…
06-04 08:36:13	will trump say big beautiful bill during wisconsin events 20260602174202012	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe0d5ef…
06-04 07:13:58	will trump say big beautiful bill during wisconsin events 20260602174202012	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x7eb79d…
06-03 23:42:24	will trump say big league or bigly in june	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xe91024…
06-03 20:20:27	will fermn lpez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb5f967…
06-03 17:12:28	Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xf351a2…
06-03 16:44:48	Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xb9ac73…
06-03 13:10:17	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x24e5e6…
06-03 12:10:56	Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x66b033…
06-03 12:07:15	Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x4c116e…
06-03 12:04:36	Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xe36959…
06-03 12:04:36	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x9dff0a…
06-03 11:18:15	Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x1816cf…
06-03 04:15:48	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	Yes	BUY	23	55¢	$13	0xa6cf85…
06-02 23:11:22	Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31?	Yes	SELL	86	99¢	$86	0x6d8f08…
06-02 23:09:25	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x6c5285…
06-02 23:06:16	Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x0507ee…
06-02 19:24:57	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa844ea…
06-02 18:35:39	Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31?	Yes	BUY	86	95¢	$82	0x7d0549…
06-02 17:47:07	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xe579ea…
06-02 17:00:01	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x3c68a1…
06-02 16:21:40	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x4bd241…
06-02 14:09:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$20	0xa1de99…
06-02 13:58:50	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xf59f7c…
06-02 05:37:45	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xbe6d8f…
06-01 20:42:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xe77c0b…
06-01 14:44:43	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x52178e…
06-01 09:58:59	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0xef9ee4…
06-01 09:54:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xd93c85…
05-31 15:04:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	70¢	$175	0xbbaf0c…
05-29 19:29:01	Will Trump say "Antifa" in June?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xec33b6…
05-28 17:14:17	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xb65239…
05-28 08:30:11	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0x452b47…
05-27 11:55:42	Will Trump say "Iran" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0x76c733…
05-27 11:55:14	Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x41bff7…
05-23 12:28:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x25c092…
05-23 08:37:05	Will Trump say "Pig" in May?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x5fb0ae…
05-21 07:30:02	Will Trump say "Fake News" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0xd8225f…
05-21 07:28:26	Will Trump say "Israel" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xf50920…
05-21 07:24:17	Will Trump say "MAGA" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xc5052d…
05-21 07:24:05	Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x6d9c53…
05-21 07:09:23	Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfd98d8…
05-21 06:23:20	Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x690b83…
05-19 17:52:11	Will Trump say "Space Force" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x3abf01…
05-19 17:51:11	Will Trump say "Maduro" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x57dfe7…
05-19 17:46:45	Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xafe45f…
05-19 17:45:56	Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x9115ef…
05-19 17:04:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x1608cc…
05-19 15:26:16	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x576d3b…
05-15 17:03:37	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x104a91…
05-14 20:07:50	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x475cd4…
05-14 20:04:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	70	90¢	$63	0xa3e10a…
05-12 18:28:38	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xdd4a45…
05-10 13:57:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0x7a6c8b…
05-07 19:27:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	150	6¢	$9	0x49f2fc…
05-07 19:24:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0xaeefb7…
05-07 19:10:31	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	SELL	103	98¢	$100	0xf224b8…
05-07 19:09:40	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x2c7b7f…
05-07 19:09:12	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x10f5b1…
05-03 14:54:44	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	34	54¢	$18	0x7c3958…
05-03 14:48:40	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x16d473…
05-02 20:10:16	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	49	95¢	$47	0x2de165…
05-02 20:09:30	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0xc8e392…
05-02 15:06:04	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	70	60¢	$42	0xf21f1e…
05-02 11:01:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x0ef25a…
05-02 06:54:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x579ed7…
05-02 06:42:16	LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season	paiN Gaming	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xe8595d…
05-01 14:22:00	LoL: Bohemian Guardians vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season	Bohemian Guardians	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x6d2531…
04-30 13:04:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x736a4b…
04-30 03:10:36	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	SELL	142	100¢	$142	0x5d8c45…
04-29 12:35:22	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x326d88…
04-29 12:30:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xeaef37…
04-29 09:26:14	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x622bb4…
04-29 07:14:12	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0x2eec87…
04-29 07:13:46	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5deb4f…
04-29 07:13:44	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xbc650d…
04-29 07:13:02	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xed6b33…
04-29 07:11:02	Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April?	Yes	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x19751d…
04-29 07:05:46	Will Trump talk to Pope Leo XIV in April?	No	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xc31389…
04-29 07:05:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x9a1a57…
04-29 07:04:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xfe0009…
04-29 07:04:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x374129…
04-25 09:25:56	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	48	55¢	$26	0xf2ec92…
04-24 20:10:32	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xf705cf…
04-24 12:56:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	No	SELL	139	100¢	$138	0x0b377e…
04-23 18:36:56	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	No	BUY	139	99¢	$138	0x565181…
04-23 17:33:54	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x8a27f6…