Surprised-Borrowing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$335

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$61.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$753

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-09 09:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Politics

74% 22% +$9,269

Other

26% 10% -$8,921

Crypto

0% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	8	$18.6K	16,185	16,185	+0	Yes	+$13,633	02-28 06:43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$14.1K	12,012	12,012	+0	Yes	+$4,368	03-05 18:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	11	$8.8K	311,821	10,286	+301,535	No	-$5,304	04-01 17:20
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	6	$4.0K	6,976	6,976	+0	No	-$3,194	03-26 06:35
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	8	$3.9K	16,396	0	+16,396	No	-$3,900	03-11 16:54
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$3.3K	62,760	62,760	+0	No	-$663	03-09 17:29
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	5	$2.2K	43,524	0	+43,524	No	-$2,218	03-14 12:53
cl up or down on march 2 2026	2	$1.7K	893	893	+0	Up	+$34	03-02 10:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	15	$1.7K	44,843	6,744	+38,099	No	-$707	05-28 16:16
will france strike iran by march 31	2	$631	2,885	2,885	+0	No	-$369	03-12 15:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$543	763	763	+0	No	-$437	05-25 03:31
deepseek v4 released by february 28	2	$506	317	317	+0	No	-$11	02-19 12:23
will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	4	$430	12,187	0	+12,187	Yes	-$430	02-10 15:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	2	$410	1,217	1,217	+0	No	-$166	09-08 05:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$398	1,713	1,713	+0	No	-$116	05-07 14:43
crint bgd pak 2026 03 13	2	$178	455	455	+0	Pakistan	-$21	03-13 11:12
ethereum above 2100 on march 14	2	$142	201	198	+3	No	-$12	03-13 11:25
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$122	478	0	+478	No	-$122	09-08 05:31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?	1	$19	31	0	+31	No	-$19	05-10 05:12
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	No	-$10	10-09 09:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 09:04:13	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x70173b…
09-08 05:31:45	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	478	25¢	$122	0x42de57…
09-08 05:30:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,217	10¢	$122	0x1f395e…
09-05 03:42:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,217	24¢	$288	0x9c49b8…
05-28 16:16:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	15,000	0¢	$75	0xec1c87…
05-27 04:50:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10,103	2¢	$173	0x554a5d…
05-26 05:26:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,433	3¢	$40	0xa9f97f…
05-25 16:10:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	714	4¢	$27	0xe317b7…
05-25 14:50:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	4,030	4¢	$160	0xaa9a89…
05-25 12:50:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	2,039	3¢	$67	0x6b54a3…
05-25 03:33:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,767	3¢	$53	0x646d94…
05-25 03:31:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	763	7¢	$53	0x5b2061…
05-24 19:19:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	3,012	4¢	$135	0x4fbb27…
05-23 20:32:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	763	64¢	$490	0x53fcdf…
05-23 17:04:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	6,744	7¢	$491	0x065935…
05-19 07:15:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	2,883	6¢	$160	0x77f7ae…
05-18 19:30:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	408	5¢	$20	0x9f23e6…
05-18 08:39:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	455	4¢	$20	0x537e8f…
05-17 20:06:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,938	5¢	$93	0xaec2bd…
05-17 19:29:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	680	5¢	$34	0x964fe5…
05-10 05:12:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	31	62¢	$19	0x6ed6a4…
05-07 14:44:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	381	37¢	$141	0xdd9620…
05-07 14:43:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	1,713	8¢	$141	0xdb3b25…
05-06 08:29:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,713	15¢	$257	0xf857af…
04-01 17:20:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	154,915	0¢	$310	0xf2b856…
04-01 15:51:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	66,425	0¢	$133	0xbd658e…
04-01 12:18:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	39,002	1¢	$234	0x77375c…
04-01 08:39:01	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	8,273	1¢	$50	0x5d73ad…
04-01 08:23:39	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	16,906	1¢	$95	0x1bf1bf…
03-26 06:35:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	2,021	20¢	$404	0x4e98fe…
03-26 06:35:25	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	SELL	6,976	6¢	$404	0xc3e417…
03-25 04:17:47	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	4,790	13¢	$623	0x49e06c…
03-19 18:54:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	9,203	19¢	$1,749	0x1efe1a…
03-19 17:13:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	10,286	17¢	$1,749	0x6e79af…
03-18 06:29:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	4,699	26¢	$1,222	0x0e3bb7…
03-14 12:53:11	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	20,374	4¢	$800	0x9efc85…
03-14 10:09:25	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	8,693	2¢	$200	0x43d20b…
03-14 03:58:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5,587	40¢	$2,235	0xb7cafa…
03-13 11:35:53	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	2,024	3¢	$63	0xbae6ac…
03-13 11:25:31	ethereum above 2100 on march 14	No	SELL	198	32¢	$63	0xed7d1d…
03-13 11:13:31	ethereum above 2100 on march 14	No	BUY	201	39¢	$78	0xbbdcb8…
03-13 11:12:39	crint bgd pak 2026 03 13	Bangladesh	SELL	455	17¢	$78	0x743d46…
03-13 09:08:29	crint bgd pak 2026 03 13	Bangladesh	BUY	455	22¢	$100	0x39210e…
03-12 15:28:19	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	2,186	6¢	$131	0xcaf796…
03-12 15:28:03	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	2,885	5¢	$131	0xa665af…
03-11 16:54:45	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	1,659	20¢	$330	0xed3fe6…
03-11 14:09:37	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	75	34¢	$26	0xeec1a8…
03-11 14:07:59	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	749	41¢	$307	0x44d9a9…
03-11 09:42:03	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	10,248	10¢	$1,024	0x14dadb…
03-09 17:39:43	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	BUY	1,793	56¢	$1,000	0x8e4720…
03-09 17:29:23	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	2,687	13¢	$337	0x9f5ea4…
03-09 17:29:03	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	62,760	2¢	$1,337	0xde66fb…
03-09 14:16:41	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	2,989	17¢	$500	0xcc08a0…
03-09 13:24:01	will france strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	2,885	17¢	$500	0xbb6068…
03-09 08:07:55	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	BUY	460	43¢	$198	0x347494…
03-09 05:59:11	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	BUY	912	44¢	$400	0x8f999f…
03-09 04:34:35	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	2,608	15¢	$400	0x89295e…
03-08 23:34:35	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	BUY	1,875	53¢	$1,000	0x640e44…
03-08 16:36:23	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	Yes	BUY	1,936	52¢	$1,000	0x56c380…
03-06 06:13:05	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	3,022	33¢	$1,000	0x0a9d47…
03-06 00:33:09	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	62,760	3¢	$2,000	0x9ac418…
03-06 00:12:21	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	2,606	38¢	$1,000	0x99e3b9…
03-05 18:16:41	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	12,012	77¢	$9,249	0x93f0b7…
03-02 14:01:03	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	4,695	43¢	$1,999	0xbd9e69…
03-02 11:37:25	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	4,873	41¢	$1,999	0xb9d452…
03-02 10:21:07	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2,444	36¢	$883	0x2bc6ac…
03-02 10:19:49	cl up or down on march 2 2026	Up	SELL	893	99¢	$883	0x8d902d…
02-28 16:22:45	cl up or down on march 2 2026	Up	BUY	893	95¢	$849	0x19853e…
02-28 06:43:13	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	SELL	16,185	100¢	$16,108	0x421378…
02-26 19:09:52	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	818	9¢	$74	0x895679…
02-23 08:50:20	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	6,439	15¢	$963	0xf49d29…
02-23 04:09:18	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1,035	15¢	$155	0x84dfc9…
02-22 10:24:00	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2,433	16¢	$389	0x209b5e…
02-21 19:03:48	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	3,401	15¢	$523	0x37264e…
02-20 17:28:16	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	426	18¢	$77	0xcbe5d2…
02-20 13:34:48	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	1,632	18¢	$294	0x640017…
02-19 12:23:34	deepseek v4 released by february 28	No	SELL	317	78¢	$248	0x6095fe…
02-19 07:25:44	deepseek v4 released by february 28	No	BUY	317	82¢	$259	0xeb42c1…
02-10 15:44:05	will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	No	BUY	4,758	4¢	$200	0x398795…
02-10 14:50:37	will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	No	BUY	4,510	3¢	$130	0x0b9be8…
02-10 12:39:21	will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	No	BUY	1,565	3¢	$50	0xb8c2a5…
02-10 10:18:07	will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	No	BUY	1,354	4¢	$50	0x82b749…