Realized P&L (7d)
-$200
Unrealized P&L
+$668
Hit rate
65.4%
Resolved (7d)
242
Trades (7d)
985
55,248 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$6.61K
$254.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$2.08K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-19
last 11-15 13:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 290 days
Categories
Other
98% 38% +$11,388
Politics
1% 58% +$76
Crypto
1% 36% -$45
Sports
0% 40% +$5
Tech
0% 25% -$3
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 451 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30? Yes +351 $238 86¢ $301 +$63 11-10 09:19
Will no hurricane form by November 30, 2026? Yes +236 $129 76¢ $181 +$52 11-12 09:40
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30? Yes +236 $89 74¢ $174 +$85 11-03 06:46
Will NYC get 1.50" or more of rain November 12 to 15? Yes +167 $70 98¢ $164 +$94 11-13 03:30
Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 15? No +130 $45 99¢ $129 +$84 11-03 03:42
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026? Yes +98 $47 88¢ $86 +$39 11-14 12:47
Will there be between 10 and 24 tornadoes in the US in November 2026? Yes +197 $81 40¢ $80 -$2 11-14 12:34
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? Yes +200 $53 38¢ $75 +$22 11-10 14:50
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 13? Yes +75 $10 97¢ $73 +$63 11-13 11:41
Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 15? No +71 $42 99¢ $70 +$28 11-02 02:43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on November 15? Yes +70 $31 100¢ $70 +$39 11-15 07:00
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 16? No +55 $51 100¢ $55 +$3 11-15 11:09
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 14? Yes +50 $11 100¢ $50 +$39 11-13 10:10
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 15? Yes +50 $8 100¢ $50 +$42 11-15 06:58
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No +50 $49 97¢ $48 $0 09-14 06:00
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 15? No +70 $46 68¢ $48 +$2 10-28 11:54
Will it rain in Washington, DC on November 14? No +46 $46 99¢ $45 -$1 11-15 05:23
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? Yes +261 $25 16¢ $43 +$18 11-14 02:18
Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026? No +42 $37 97¢ $41 +$4 11-10 23:11
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? Yes +50 $37 74¢ $37 +$0 11-01 15:19
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 15? Yes +35 $8 100¢ $35 +$28 11-15 12:28
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4.5 inches of precipitation in November? Yes +113 $32 28¢ $32 -$1 11-10 13:31
Will NYC get between 0.25" and 0.49" of rain November 12 to 15? No +35 $34 76¢ $27 -$8 11-13 03:25
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record? No +61 $22 43¢ $26 +$4 11-11 14:52
Will NYC get between 0.50" and 0.99" of rain November 12 to 15? No -25 -$1 98¢ $-25 -$23 11-12 21:58
Will Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027? No +25 $24 98¢ $24 +$0 09-16 00:56
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in November? No +25 $24 97¢ $24 $0 11-13 04:37
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No +25 $24 97¢ $24 $0 09-27 16:51
Will NYC have between 4.25 and 5.75 inches of precipitation in November? Yes +150 $30 15¢ $22 -$8 11-15 07:40
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? No +50 $19 42¢ $21 +$2 11-10 01:13