Meaty-Dynamics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$478

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

41.9%

Resolved

1,242

Trades

3,217

lifetime

Volume

$19.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-24

last 10-27 20:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 135 days

Categories

Other

52% 21% -$346

Crypto

31% 58% -$66

Politics

8% 15% -$55

Tech

4% 25% -$30

Sports

3% 50% +$27

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 173 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No		+0	$0	76¢	$0	$0	09-24 08:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	3	$70	50	50	+0	open	—	10-20 12:19
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	7	$70	60	60	+0	open	—	10-16 06:42
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	8	$61	54	50	+4	open	—	10-26 02:06
Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	6	$59	50	50	+0	open	—	10-22 17:29
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	7	$58	60	60	+0	open	—	10-25 10:58
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	6	$57	60	60	+0	Yes	-$5	09-24 14:26
Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	4	$57	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	10-23 12:02
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	7	$55	60	60	+0	open	—	10-20 13:57
Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in September?	8	$54	52	52	+0	Yes	-$5	09-25 23:07
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	4	$52	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	10-10 17:04
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	4	$51	40	40	+0	open	—	10-05 15:28
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1?	7	$50	60	60	+0	No	-$3	09-17 16:57
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	4	$49	40	40	+0	open	—	10-25 19:27
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	4	$49	37	37	+0	No	-$1	10-11 04:00
Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	7	$48	60	60	+0	No	$0	09-22 23:46
Will the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win the 2026 Japan Series?	7	$47	60	60	+0	Yes	-$2	10-20 00:52
Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%?	4	$46	40	40	+0	open	—	10-14 09:01
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	5	$45	40	40	+0	open	—	10-20 12:10
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	4	$43	40	40	+0	Yes	-$3	09-16 23:56
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	4	$43	40	40	+0	Yes	-$5	09-25 16:30
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	6	$42	46	46	+0	No	-$2	09-22 09:10
Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?	4	$41	40	40	+0	No	-$2	10-10 09:25
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	6	$41	60	60	+0	Yes	-$3	10-21 09:13
ice quarterly earnings nongaap eps 10 29 2026 1pt98	4	$39	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	10-17 10:11
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?	4	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	10-08 23:51
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	6	$39	40	40	+0	open	—	10-20 10:35
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	5	$39	40	40	+0	No	-$4	09-24 23:32
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	4	$39	40	40	+0	Yes	-$4	10-22 23:58
Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	7	$38	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	10-26 05:24
Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before the midterms?	2	$37	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 05:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:16:29	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x7f61db…
10-26 23:28:15	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	33¢	$3	0x200d73…
10-26 23:12:39	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xf1919c…
10-26 21:48:53	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	19	44¢	$8	0x09e93a…
10-26 21:36:53	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x728e50…
10-26 21:14:24	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xf0bae9…
10-26 20:40:00	Will Soneium launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x21fba4…
10-26 20:25:35	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x727a51…
10-26 20:05:09	Will Soneium launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x977690…
10-26 20:02:03	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x2981d0…
10-26 19:56:38	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x7af628…
10-26 19:54:12	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0xcefb99…
10-26 19:54:11	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xe2f214…
10-26 17:49:21	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xc7dd03…
10-26 14:46:44	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xb1cb53…
10-26 13:32:00	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0xdd3bb3…
10-26 13:03:51	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x99d0b1…
10-26 13:01:51	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xa5f9d2…
10-26 12:58:17	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x4a71ae…
10-26 12:58:14	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0xb5d60b…
10-26 12:58:14	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	Yes	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x0eb0b5…
10-26 12:28:41	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xce20c8…
10-26 11:49:14	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x257cba…
10-26 11:09:54	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x3ab40e…
10-26 10:58:27	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc2ac61…
10-26 10:58:27	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x29f297…
10-26 10:13:12	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	81¢	$14	0x6d17f3…
10-26 09:50:00	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xf62943…
10-26 09:34:23	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x053801…
10-26 09:05:45	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x57c9b1…
10-26 08:04:24	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x98ff5f…
10-26 06:05:12	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xcc5d29…
10-26 05:24:42	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x626093…
10-26 04:55:36	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x52172d…
10-26 03:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0xd953b4…
10-26 02:45:14	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 27?	No	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0xfbf14b…
10-26 02:06:20	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xd501e3…
10-26 01:15:29	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x803da6…
10-26 01:06:45	Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x3e85eb…
10-26 00:55:53	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x175244…
10-25 23:42:59	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x8b74f4…
10-25 19:27:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xb83c6f…
10-25 19:11:24	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x5bb5de…
10-25 17:22:39	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x1025f4…
10-25 16:08:42	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xa8cfa7…
10-25 16:04:05	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xdbf60f…
10-25 14:21:08	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x9d3a46…
10-25 14:21:05	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0x9cfc32…
10-25 13:50:51	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x8db7e7…
10-25 13:04:26	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x35cc1b…
10-25 12:56:48	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf4283c…
10-25 12:43:11	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x358ea0…
10-25 12:07:09	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x913fe9…
10-25 12:07:09	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0x301f87…
10-25 11:10:15	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x25ea8b…
10-25 10:58:21	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x21befc…
10-25 10:57:11	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0x0fd6cc…
10-25 10:57:09	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x05a905…
10-25 10:14:48	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x0ee13c…
10-25 10:13:39	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x3e9344…
10-25 09:20:20	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x6b2658…
10-25 09:05:21	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x111f24…
10-25 09:02:17	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x94324f…
10-25 08:50:00	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xc5263a…
10-25 06:58:08	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xfbcb21…
10-25 06:57:00	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xe794f5…
10-25 06:56:59	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0x1ac902…
10-25 05:38:29	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xd5ff52…
10-25 04:01:11	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x297f58…
10-25 02:23:47	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb2aba8…
10-24 23:16:39	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xce6267…
10-24 23:14:02	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x5d7dea…
10-24 15:15:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x0d70d3…
10-24 14:36:20	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x13e8aa…
10-24 13:48:57	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xffdd20…
10-24 12:54:05	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xd44799…
10-24 11:28:42	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x83aaa3…
10-24 10:59:33	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x48649b…
10-24 10:46:50	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 90% and 92.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xb7515b…
10-24 10:20:59	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x656d28…
10-24 10:12:23	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x388c85…
10-24 10:12:21	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x535516…
10-24 09:54:39	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0xb40101…
10-24 09:53:32	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x8d6e79…
10-24 09:49:41	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xbfe859…
10-24 09:48:27	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x3859d5…
10-24 09:03:09	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x84f709…
10-24 09:02:02	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xeeaa96…
10-24 08:25:23	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x7ffa8d…
10-24 08:24:36	Will DJ Snake attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xe7b9ec…
10-24 06:04:12	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xec492e…
10-24 06:04:12	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xc7393f…
10-24 04:14:45	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x2ae24e…
10-24 02:19:45	Will DJ Snake attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x2085a9…
10-24 01:46:15	Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x09cc8b…
10-24 01:16:15	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x949cba…
10-24 00:35:09	Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7476fc…
10-24 00:24:45	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xa7e059…
10-23 23:39:35	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	37¢	$4	0x8d8cae…
10-23 23:23:12	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x15ed1a…