Adored-Colonisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$287

Unrealized P&L

+$1.32K

Hit rate

49.2%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

865 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$16.3K

$203.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$235

Open exposure

$9.69K

19 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 11-06 21:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Other

55% 69% +$16,130

Politics

42% 58% +$971

Tech

3% 50% +$425

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	-7,927	-$4,444	44¢	$-3528	+$916	11-06 19:18
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+3,632	$1,722	46¢	$1.7K	-$68	10-15 18:29
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2028?	Yes	+1,740	$1,403	88¢	$1.5K	+$137	11-06 21:47
will eu emergency diesel stocks be at least 37m tonnes at end of december 2026	No	+1,130	$1,030	93¢	$1.1K	+$21	10-02 15:26
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	+500	$300	80¢	$400	+$100	10-15 18:54
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+538	$207	56¢	$299	+$92	11-04 17:02
will eu emergency diesel stocks be at least 35m tonnes at end of december 2026	No	+615	$486	39¢	$240	-$246	10-02 16:06
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+252	$78	80¢	$203	+$125	11-06 18:43
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	Yes	+214	$146	71¢	$152	+$6	11-06 21:01
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	+200	$36	76¢	$152	+$116	10-23 10:13
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	+393	$158	38¢	$151	-$7	10-06 13:06
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Yes	+1,469	$328	10¢	$148	-$180	09-09 10:32
Trump impeached and removed before 2028?	Yes	+648	$141	17¢	$113	-$28	11-04 03:58
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	+1,569	$88	2¢	$32	-$56	10-21 15:10
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Yes	+700	$23	2¢	$16	-$7	11-06 21:58
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	+10	$8	94¢	$9	+$2	09-07 16:38
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	Yes	+75	$23	4¢	$3	-$21	06-17 14:13
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	+1,937	$126	0¢	$2	-$125	11-03 12:37
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	-$544	20¢	$0	+$544	10-27 20:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	15	$30.4K	37,009	37,009	+0	Yes	+$6,757	10-01 14:40
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	32	$22.9K	50,934	50,934	+0	No	+$307	10-23 21:42
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	15	$8.4K	8,050	8,050	+0	No	+$1,097	06-18 23:47
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	18	$7.1K	3,136	10,525	-7,389	open	—	11-06 19:18
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	32	$6.8K	12,093	12,093	+0	open	—	10-27 20:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	8	$6.8K	14,655	14,655	+0	open	—	10-14 12:31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	18	$4.8K	6,058	6,058	+0	Yes	+$249	03-31 02:34
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	19	$4.7K	7,899	0	+7,899	No	+$3,221	08-05 13:19
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	19	$4.3K	3,995	2,200	+1,795	No	+$1,167	04-07 23:55
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	46	$4.2K	5,371	3,864	+1,507	No	+$2,369	08-31 16:05
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?	3	$4.2K	4,329	0	+4,329	No	+$135	04-02 23:34
Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026?	4	$4.1K	4,645	0	+4,645	Yes	+$527	10-20 18:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	21	$4.0K	3,057	3,056	+0	No	+$189	06-29 12:07
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	1	$3.5K	3,944	0	+3,944	Yes	+$464	10-09 12:56
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	15	$3.3K	3,750	3,750	+0	open	—	10-29 12:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	3	$2.9K	3,353	3,353	+0	open	—	11-05 17:25
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	8	$2.8K	5,155	5,155	+0	open	—	10-10 13:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	9	$2.7K	2,119	2,118	+0	No	+$4	04-07 23:42
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	8	$2.2K	2,012	2,012	+0	Yes	+$50	09-18 12:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	31	$2.2K	1,700	1,700	+0	No	+$109	04-05 00:40
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?	6	$2.2K	2,429	0	+2,429	No	+$259	04-13 01:11
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	8	$2.1K	2,889	2,889	+0	Yes	+$27	11-03 22:19
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	7	$2.0K	1,630	1,378	+252	open	—	11-06 18:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.9K	4,427	4,427	+0	No	-$162	05-26 01:47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$1.9K	2,908	2,908	+0	No	+$0	10-01 14:40
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?	2	$1.9K	1,981	0	+1,981	No	+$91	04-02 10:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$1.9K	5,089	4,882	+206	Yes	+$604	05-08 18:46
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	7	$1.8K	3,218	3,218	-0	Yes	-$174	08-01 15:01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	2	$1.8K	2,774	2,774	+0	open	—	11-05 21:30
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	3	$1.8K	3,609	3,590	+19	No	-$333	11-06 21:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 21:58:54	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0xf65563…
11-06 21:47:54	Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	1,740	81¢	$1,403	0xaf7f19…
11-06 21:42:03	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,164	20¢	$620	0x7b8789…
11-06 21:40:37	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	426	22¢	$94	0x2c4d7c…
11-06 21:01:04	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	59¢	$34	0xf34309…
11-06 20:30:10	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,609	29¢	$1,046	0xf24c84…
11-06 19:18:33	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	70	38¢	$27	0xa8df50…
11-06 19:18:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,300	38¢	$494	0xc21d38…
11-06 18:43:22	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x215ffe…
11-06 18:29:18	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$17	0x28ff66…
11-06 16:15:57	Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank?	No	BUY	125	93¢	$116	0xc7f618…
11-06 15:29:19	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	53¢	$42	0xe8b654…
11-05 21:30:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	SELL	2,774	30¢	$832	0x896dc3…
11-05 20:07:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2,774	34¢	$943	0xdd04e1…
11-05 17:25:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,353	44¢	$1,475	0x09eb57…
11-05 17:01:49	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	211	67¢	$142	0x5178d7…
11-04 18:22:45	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,347	52¢	$701	0x645071…
11-04 18:22:45	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x497f09…
11-04 18:22:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	125	52¢	$65	0x47a11e…
11-04 18:22:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	22	52¢	$11	0xd21736…
11-04 18:22:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x0534d7…
11-04 18:22:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	612	52¢	$318	0xd8d646…
11-04 17:02:22	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	538	38¢	$207	0x7b6bec…
11-04 17:02:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6,781	64¢	$4,350	0x9899fe…
11-04 16:43:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,753	44¢	$1,211	0x131160…
11-04 15:45:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	600	39¢	$234	0x9705ea…
11-04 03:58:09	Trump impeached and removed before 2028?	Yes	BUY	648	22¢	$141	0x756294…
11-03 22:19:49	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	36¢	$540	0x033fcd…
11-03 19:58:51	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$185	0x506506…
11-03 19:55:54	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$185	0x6200f3…
11-03 19:52:24	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$185	0x512f08…
11-03 12:37:01	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	BUY	139	2¢	$3	0x4a1563…
11-03 12:10:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,042	37¢	$386	0x3acbd3…
11-02 22:00:04	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	347	39¢	$135	0xb608f5…
10-30 17:58:04	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	430	7¢	$31	0xcb36a8…
10-29 15:31:32	Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?	Yes	BUY	217	34¢	$74	0x18d9c1…
10-29 15:31:23	Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?	Yes	BUY	464	5¢	$24	0x4b878d…
10-29 12:58:49	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	180	52¢	$94	0x4ba7dc…
10-29 11:56:25	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	25	52¢	$13	0xdce7bf…
10-29 11:56:22	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0xa74bbc…
10-29 11:49:56	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0xf6bd53…
10-28 20:08:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$14	0x752b4a…
10-28 18:18:08	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x6457c8…
10-28 18:15:52	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	646	7¢	$43	0x43e12f…
10-28 16:42:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	76	33¢	$25	0x231f37…
10-28 16:41:16	Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?	No	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0xea65bd…
10-28 10:39:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	929	33¢	$307	0xeb3031…
10-28 01:24:23	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	45	34¢	$15	0xd2fd56…
10-27 23:25:23	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	23	36¢	$8	0x92897f…
10-27 23:03:56	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	27	36¢	$10	0xe5f29b…
10-27 22:34:48	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	903	36¢	$325	0x9eeee3…
10-27 20:23:50	Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,472	3¢	$44	0x08a87c…
10-27 20:06:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4,097	30¢	$1,229	0x3363da…
10-27 20:05:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0xc0e131…
10-27 20:05:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x8fefe6…
10-27 20:05:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0x82c933…
10-27 20:05:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0xfff809…
10-27 20:05:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x115aa6…
10-27 20:05:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	327	30¢	$98	0xe7501c…
10-27 20:05:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$1	0xb510c5…
10-27 20:05:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$4	0xfb8f18…
10-27 20:05:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x8bdad4…
10-27 20:05:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	750	30¢	$225	0x8c6d1d…
10-27 20:05:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	210	30¢	$63	0xb398fe…
10-27 20:05:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x185411…
10-27 20:05:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	133	30¢	$40	0x3b5946…
10-27 20:05:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x059c37…
10-27 20:05:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	201	30¢	$60	0x24dcef…
10-27 20:05:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	333	30¢	$100	0x068874…
10-27 20:05:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	333	30¢	$100	0xb94acd…
10-27 20:05:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	210	30¢	$63	0x84ff76…
10-27 20:05:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x653b22…
10-27 20:04:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	803	31¢	$249	0xbe18ec…
10-27 20:03:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	259	31¢	$80	0xb76201…
10-27 20:03:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	520	31¢	$161	0x96a63e…
10-27 20:03:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	323	31¢	$100	0x703173…
10-27 20:03:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	362	31¢	$112	0x471850…
10-27 20:03:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x2f15a7…
10-27 20:03:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,023	31¢	$944	0x12a6ad…
10-27 20:00:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0xbb1ca7…
10-27 20:00:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x3ca8b8…
10-27 20:00:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,382	26¢	$879	0x60c1a1…
10-27 20:00:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0xcf97be…
10-27 20:00:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	8,658	26¢	$2,251	0xf1e2d4…
10-27 17:30:36	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	461	50¢	$231	0xb9aa25…
10-27 13:50:14	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	1,100	43¢	$471	0x2d8893…
10-27 11:07:09	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x7f214b…
10-27 08:18:38	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	19	47¢	$9	0x758425…
10-27 08:18:36	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	560	47¢	$263	0x7c5eac…
10-27 00:07:24	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x40d5fe…
10-27 00:07:18	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x696475…
10-27 00:06:39	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	640	48¢	$306	0xb467aa…
10-27 00:06:08	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	60	49¢	$29	0x14b32a…
10-26 20:58:26	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	295	52¢	$153	0xb87267…
10-26 19:34:02	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,797	7¢	$124	0x4172b9…
10-26 19:32:54	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by November 30?	Yes	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x3c3669…
10-26 19:03:36	Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0x049d05…
10-26 17:09:08	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	BUY	3,750	42¢	$1,558	0x5a3913…
10-26 15:13:15	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	25¢	$53	0x55e4c4…
10-26 13:04:11	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe7291f…