Half-Effective — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.2%

Resolved

Trades

529

lifetime

Volume

$21.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 07-21 11:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

38% — —

Other

29% 59% +$179

Sports

17% 22% $-173

Crypto

16% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran closes its airspace by june 8	8	$3.3K	5,729	4,016	+1,713	open	—	06-07 21:35
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	15	$1.6K	5,380	2,380	+3,000	open	—	07-21 11:01
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$941	21,728	0	+21,728	open	—	02-09 21:56
will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	13	$730	18,000	0	+18,000	open	—	06-15 21:21
btc updown 5m 1783878300	4	$541	506	506	+0	open	—	07-12 17:48
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	1	$480	800	0	+800	open	—	06-29 23:08
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	39	$476	11,407	6,407	+5,000	open	—	07-09 23:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$425	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	06-15 23:49
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	1	$420	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-22 09:43
btc updown 5m 1783878000	9	$416	376	376	+0	open	—	07-12 17:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	2	$397	241	241	+0	open	—	05-19 11:09
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Fiona Ferro vs Elina Avanesyan	2	$292	194	194	+0	open	—	05-17 14:50
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens	2	$285	294	294	+0	open	—	05-18 06:28
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic	5	$280	254	208	+46	Noemi Basiletti	+$78	05-07 11:55
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	8	$278	2,009	1,009	+1,000	open	—	07-13 20:24
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies	2	$229	348	348	+0	open	—	05-17 21:49
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	1	$225	1,136	0	+1,136	open	—	04-13 00:44
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team total away 1pt5	1	$210	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	07-03 14:38
btc updown 5m 1783878600	6	$210	3,398	0	+3,398	open	—	07-12 17:54
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	1	$200	488	0	+488	open	—	05-17 16:21
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher	2	$195	119	119	+0	open	—	05-18 14:17
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5	2	$190	196	196	+0	open	—	05-18 22:01
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels	2	$176	163	163	+0	open	—	05-19 03:33
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19?	2	$171	98	98	+0	open	—	05-19 10:37
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	3	$167	1,540	0	+1,540	open	—	07-03 00:36
Bengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi	2	$154	103	103	+0	open	—	05-19 04:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?	1	$153	172	0	+172	open	—	05-17 20:29
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea	1	$153	268	0	+268	open	—	05-17 15:41
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich	2	$152	106	106	+0	open	—	05-15 15:46
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	2	$150	163	163	+0	open	—	05-19 00:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 11:15:21	btc updown 5m 1784632500	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x87a4cd…
07-21 11:14:01	btc updown 5m 1784632200	Down	BUY	1,342	2¢	$25	0xf573c8…
07-21 11:13:37	btc updown 5m 1784632200	Up	SELL	53	99¢	$53	0xa6b4e9…
07-21 11:10:49	btc updown 5m 1784632200	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xe03d36…
07-21 11:01:42	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	2,500	25¢	$625	0xb9ef58…
07-21 10:59:18	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xeb50be…
07-21 10:38:58	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x6afb68…
07-19 13:00:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	216	31¢	$67	0x2f723b…
07-14 22:12:37	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	310	30¢	$93	0x32cc50…
07-14 14:25:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	113	30¢	$34	0x30142a…
07-14 14:16:28	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	577	30¢	$173	0xe8e6a8…
07-13 20:24:32	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	567	13¢	$73	0x4f987f…
07-13 20:24:04	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	433	13¢	$55	0xbb39fb…
07-13 20:22:43	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	477	30¢	$143	0x88b53e…
07-13 20:21:58	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals ousmane dembele gte2	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$49	0x3d5fc6…
07-13 20:20:34	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	23	30¢	$7	0x6c81b3…
07-13 18:49:43	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0xc646de…
07-12 17:56:58	btc updown 5m 1783878900	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc6420f…
07-12 17:56:58	btc updown 5m 1783878900	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x7a9c3c…
07-12 17:56:53	btc updown 5m 1783878900	Down	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0x8fcd1e…
07-12 17:56:34	btc updown 5m 1783878900	Down	BUY	250	23¢	$58	0x61332e…
07-12 17:54:49	btc updown 5m 1783878600	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9ffb9c…
07-12 17:54:34	btc updown 5m 1783878600	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd27723…
07-12 17:53:40	btc updown 5m 1783878600	Up	BUY	149	9¢	$13	0xec07da…
07-12 17:53:38	btc updown 5m 1783878600	Up	BUY	1,438	6¢	$87	0xa87baa…
07-12 17:52:19	btc updown 5m 1783878600	Up	BUY	688	12¢	$81	0x5c24b3…
07-12 17:52:19	btc updown 5m 1783878600	Up	BUY	122	16¢	$19	0x1a77cd…
07-12 17:48:10	btc updown 5m 1783878300	Down	SELL	506	63¢	$316	0x87ed73…
07-12 17:47:22	btc updown 5m 1783878300	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x4308d4…
07-12 17:46:46	btc updown 5m 1783878300	Down	BUY	268	37¢	$100	0x0af881…
07-12 17:43:50	btc updown 5m 1783878300	Down	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x35800a…
07-12 17:42:41	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	SELL	376	64¢	$241	0x990546…
07-12 17:40:58	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xce3035…
07-12 17:40:56	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x795b5b…
07-12 17:40:56	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x49912a…
07-12 17:40:55	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xdd4f28…
07-12 17:40:55	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x969b2d…
07-12 17:40:37	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xb9f7ba…
07-12 17:40:34	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x7d0bb9…
07-12 17:39:46	btc updown 5m 1783878000	Up	BUY	205	49¢	$100	0x0a1bec…
07-11 23:13:13	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	144	13¢	$19	0xc1fffc…
07-10 19:18:28	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	106	18¢	$19	0x2b477f…
07-10 17:31:29	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	209	18¢	$38	0x94cc86…
07-10 17:09:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	185	20¢	$37	0x019fba…
07-09 23:36:05	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	90	12¢	$11	0x4e0e0e…
07-09 23:31:41	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xeba1ab…
07-09 23:29:22	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	364	18¢	$65	0x0dca3a…
07-09 23:21:11	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	16	19¢	$3	0x113e42…
07-09 23:20:08	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	134	5¢	$7	0x53b7f8…
07-09 20:45:14	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xa816b8…
07-09 20:30:43	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	855	7¢	$56	0x29c240…
07-09 20:14:08	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals ousmane dembele gte2	Yes	BUY	90	7¢	$6	0x19b82f…
07-09 20:05:35	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$66	0xaab69d…
07-09 01:29:56	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0xbeee36…
07-08 22:42:49	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	500	7¢	$33	0x6b858b…
07-08 22:39:05	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	500	7¢	$33	0x853af7…
07-08 22:38:34	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0xb3f9e2…
07-08 00:00:52	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	1,527	7¢	$107	0xa504df…
07-07 23:07:14	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x9c14a3…
07-07 22:23:43	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0x4495fa…
07-07 21:19:47	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	447	7¢	$31	0x4a1c84…
07-06 22:23:13	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	2,380	9¢	$214	0xc6d153…
07-06 22:22:50	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	909	4¢	$36	0x8ce39f…
07-03 19:35:01	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x8915e0…
07-03 14:38:32	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	3,000	7¢	$210	0xb66ae6…
07-03 00:36:19	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xa3c1ee…
07-03 00:23:44	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	37	6¢	$2	0xdf3a13…
07-03 00:07:41	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	1,500	11¢	$165	0x8f07eb…
07-02 14:19:19	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	1,407	5¢	$70	0x4e775c…
07-01 21:45:20	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x2cd689…
07-01 21:42:56	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xcd1bf6…
07-01 21:37:34	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$30	0x3b9e86…
06-29 23:08:46	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	800	60¢	$480	0xead52f…
06-29 21:54:50	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	210	30¢	$63	0xd1875e…
06-29 21:54:11	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	290	30¢	$87	0xf9f9f8…
06-29 18:33:16	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	460	16¢	$74	0xff6798…
06-29 18:33:05	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xba1787…
06-29 18:33:01	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x948304…
06-29 18:32:56	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0xd354ed…
06-29 13:29:04	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0xd3e0b6…
06-29 08:55:01	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0xdc30a6…
06-29 08:26:34	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xe8920c…
06-29 07:48:59	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0x3ae116…
06-29 06:23:25	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	84	4¢	$3	0x1fc21d…
06-29 01:30:35	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xf71cb2…
06-29 00:03:04	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xd80531…
06-29 00:02:59	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x912d1a…
06-29 00:02:55	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xf6e7d1…
06-29 00:00:17	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xb4f674…
06-29 00:00:10	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x66c895…
06-29 00:00:05	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xd5a007…
06-28 23:57:43	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x2a6423…
06-28 23:57:38	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x9a14d1…
06-28 23:57:34	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xa9eba6…
06-28 23:56:08	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x2490d1…
06-28 21:15:02	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xebc877…
06-28 19:26:37	Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	215	2¢	$3	0x2a669f…
06-28 15:20:07	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	509	6¢	$33	0x43645d…
06-28 13:40:53	Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x5beb96…
06-28 12:48:23	Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x403c4b…