Lean-Cicada — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$240

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved (90d)

784

Trades (90d)

1,925

18,703 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$17.0K

$148.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 09-01 11:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 51% +$3,960

Other

20% 52% +$397

Sports

10% 54% -$1,381

Politics

0% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 303 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		+15	$12	94¢	$14	+$2	08-12 23:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No		+6	$5	94¢	$5	+$1	08-27 23:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	39	$736	1,088	225	+863	Yes	-$141	07-04 19:07
fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	41	$650	801	236	+566	United States	-$95	07-02 02:09
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	138	$612	1,058	150	+907	Belgium	+$78	07-07 00:05
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	40	$459	683	140	+543	Over	-$49	06-30 18:49
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 spread home 1pt5	16	$448	655	138	+518	DR Congo	+$103	07-01 18:01
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	40	$408	794	10	+784	England	+$83	07-06 01:36
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	14	$391	784	6	+778	France	-$140	06-30 22:51
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	15	$336	661	0	+661	No	+$217	07-01 20:02
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	21	$313	431	99	+333	Over	+$89	07-05 22:05
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	40	$313	299	290	+10	Morocco	-$28	07-04 17:56
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 total 2pt5	20	$302	414	199	+215	Over	-$31	07-01 17:16
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	31	$299	596	0	+596	No	-$16	07-06 00:49
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	30	$295	458	31	+427	Yes	+$68	06-26 19:57
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 2pt5	113	$281	453	74	+379	Over	-$216	06-29 18:55
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 total 2pt5	56	$266	359	164	+195	Under	-$93	07-06 19:15
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	14	$257	476	1	+475	No	-$4	07-07 01:09
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	28	$256	596	0	+596	Yes	-$256	06-27 00:00
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 2pt5	10	$252	385	0	+385	Paraguay	+$110	07-04 20:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	7	$249	226	221	+6	Down	+$193	05-16 04:00
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	21	$248	499	1	+497	No	+$36	06-25 22:11
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	7	$244	415	26	+389	Yes	+$95	06-27 22:59
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	8	$244	488	0	+488	Yes	-$44	07-06 18:48
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	6	$244	504	0	+504	No	-$26	07-01 00:40
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	52	$240	619	0	+619	Belgium	-$230	07-01 22:19
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	9	$239	445	0	+445	No	-$184	07-05 21:20
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	21	$225	439	0	+439	Over	-$16	07-07 17:06
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	23	$225	462	0	+462	Paraguay	+$67	07-04 22:38
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	7	$225	414	0	+414	Yes	+$39	07-04 01:22
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	19	$223	457	0	+457	No	+$34	06-26 01:07
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	18	$213	550	0	+550	No	-$213	06-27 00:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 11:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x056415…
09-01 11:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0xcecb8c…
09-01 11:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x8a07a9…
09-01 11:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xf9d4a8…
09-01 11:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down on September 1?	Down	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x70e1e3…
09-01 11:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x4ee3d8…
09-01 11:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x6f88c6…
09-01 11:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x7684ca…
09-01 11:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x51477a…
09-01 11:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x71ea28…
09-01 11:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x899904…
09-01 10:46:33	Ethereum Up or Down on September 1?	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xb92396…
09-01 10:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xc601ed…
09-01 10:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0x2d4d1e…
09-01 10:35:12	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xcb1ab8…
09-01 10:35:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x3ea856…
09-01 10:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x7b8447…
09-01 10:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x145493…
09-01 10:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x5bc13b…
09-01 10:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdfbe3a…
09-01 10:08:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	52¢	$9	0x7ad317…
09-01 10:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0xfd917f…
09-01 10:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x57d01c…
09-01 09:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x5e9278…
09-01 09:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xd29bb6…
09-01 09:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	52¢	$15	0xba4040…
09-01 09:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xededef…
09-01 09:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	32	26¢	$8	0xfd9825…
09-01 09:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x94524f…
09-01 09:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	42	34¢	$14	0xd49097…
09-01 09:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	35	52¢	$18	0xa98a5d…
09-01 09:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x4ea32e…
09-01 09:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	31	38¢	$12	0x99a369…
09-01 09:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x964afa…
09-01 09:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xdcad16…
09-01 09:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	31	52¢	$16	0xff0c9f…
09-01 09:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xf2438b…
09-01 09:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x5a04ac…
09-01 09:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xfc21c5…
09-01 09:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	29	51¢	$15	0x2d324c…
09-01 09:08:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x6a6792…
09-01 08:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xcd3f4e…
09-01 08:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0x788cf1…
09-01 08:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x77d225…
09-01 08:37:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x2b3b3c…
09-01 08:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	26	56¢	$14	0x5f1a07…
09-01 08:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x4665a4…
09-01 08:32:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	37	38¢	$14	0xb2e157…
09-01 08:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa2cb90…
09-01 08:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x33688c…
09-01 08:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x1bd831…
09-01 08:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0x0ec05a…
09-01 08:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xb806d0…
09-01 08:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x47a6c1…
09-01 08:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x9e87ad…
09-01 08:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf2e5c3…
09-01 08:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	35	52¢	$18	0x1b6597…
09-01 08:02:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9dff84…
09-01 07:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0x99bab0…
09-01 07:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x92a6f6…
09-01 07:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xc1d1fa…
09-01 07:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	32	52¢	$17	0xc920db…
09-01 07:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x08677f…
09-01 07:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xf94864…
09-01 07:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xa2431c…
09-01 07:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xf38853…
09-01 07:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x1dacfd…
09-01 07:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x98f7b9…
09-01 07:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0xedceb6…
09-01 07:40:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xd63a77…
09-01 07:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xaafba3…
09-01 07:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xd1fda4…
09-01 07:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	39	78¢	$30	0xb2dafe…
09-01 07:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xa269fe…
09-01 07:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0x824686…
09-01 07:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0xb5fb31…
09-01 07:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x25f7a3…
09-01 07:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0x15afb8…
09-01 07:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x129a2d…
09-01 07:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x473848…
09-01 07:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xa1aa40…
09-01 07:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0xc1a332…
09-01 07:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x6b5b53…
09-01 07:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xb2f3f1…
09-01 07:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x798310…
09-01 07:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x3e8057…
09-01 07:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x5cf4d2…
09-01 07:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x42e272…
09-01 07:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0xd07f06…
09-01 07:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x57b906…
09-01 07:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x07a19a…
09-01 07:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xa016c1…
09-01 07:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x260a80…
09-01 07:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x8f3fed…
09-01 06:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xf9d906…
09-01 06:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xd7489a…
09-01 06:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	41	34¢	$14	0x026758…
09-01 06:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe25046…
09-01 06:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0x40d7d2…
09-01 06:32:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-01 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	28	52¢	$15	0xfa5825…