Careless-Exposure-Shipper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

83.7%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$2.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$62

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-16

last 10-23 23:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

42% 63% +$2

Politics

35% 82% +$53

Tech

13% 100% +$9

Crypto

10% 53% -$66

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+200	$35	16¢	$33	-$2	10-23 23:14
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+145	$16	11¢	$15	-$1	09-28 12:50
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+25	-$2	43¢	$11	+$13	07-14 07:03
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+100	$23	2¢	$2	-$22	07-07 14:33
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+300	$10	0¢	$1	-$8	09-04 04:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sabrina Carpenter be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	3	$327	335	0	+335	No	+$8	07-04 00:39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2?	2	$253	272	0	+272	Yes	+$19	06-02 06:52
gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	1	$196	200	0	+200	Yes	+$4	07-08 06:17
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	1	$195	200	0	+200	Yes	+$5	07-08 06:16
will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	10	$174	111	104	+7	No	+$18	06-23 10:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	8	$130	80	80	+0	Yes	+$13	06-20 13:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 23:35 UTC	2	$105	114	0	+114	Down	$0	06-21 23:39
Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$96	100	0	+100	open	—	10-11 18:47
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	6	$95	69	49	+20	Yes	+$12	06-20 21:43
will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	5	$87	60	60	+0	Yes	+$10	06-20 14:25
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	7	$70	40	40	+0	Yes	+$4	09-02 16:19
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 3?	2	$63	81	0	+81	No	+$18	06-02 22:40
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 2?	6	$54	80	0	+80	Yes	-$54	06-02 22:25
will este haim be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	2	$52	55	0	+55	No	+$3	07-04 00:29
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	4	$52	78	0	+78	Yes	+$26	05-16 22:33
Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$48	50	0	+50	open	—	10-13 12:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$47	30	30	+0	Yes	+$3	06-14 22:58
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 2?	4	$45	51	0	+51	Yes	+$6	06-02 21:57
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$44	215	15	+200	open	—	10-23 23:14
will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	4	$43	100	100	+0	No	-$7	06-18 14:07
will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	8	$40	30	30	+0	Yes	+$12	06-20 20:32
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 2?	3	$38	150	150	+0	No	-$37	06-02 22:46
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2?	3	$34	18	18	+0	No	+$1	06-02 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 15:10 UTC	2	$30	43	0	+43	Down	-$30	06-24 15:14
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 1?	5	$28	24	14	+10	Yes	+$6	06-01 20:29
starmer out by july 31 2026	3	$28	30	0	+30	Yes	+$2	06-21 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 2?	2	$26	30	0	+30	No	+$4	06-02 17:31
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$1	07-04 00:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 00:40 UTC	2	$23	17	17	+0	Down	+$3	06-22 00:43
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$23	100	0	+100	open	—	07-07 14:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 23:14:15	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x2e34de…
10-16 14:18:12	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x64290e…
10-13 12:01:20	Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xe7c4b9…
10-11 18:47:48	Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xafa420…
09-28 12:50:48	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xb0f520…
09-26 21:46:30	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xabce61…
09-06 11:33:15	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0xab43c2…
09-04 04:51:01	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xfd1f36…
09-03 15:31:57	Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xf6e944…
09-03 12:59:51	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xfd5eed…
09-02 16:19:07	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xafe3fb…
09-02 12:04:30	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x423993…
09-02 04:56:25	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0xd302f5…
09-02 00:46:31	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xcd425e…
09-01 17:36:45	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xb23e9b…
09-01 15:17:45	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x5c6883…
09-01 06:38:09	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xe53839…
08-31 19:59:19	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x8eb524…
08-30 10:24:55	Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x688d22…
08-29 16:49:49	Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xa0fddd…
07-14 07:03:20	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	24	31¢	$7	0xadbd3a…
07-14 07:00:02	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x55ac76…
07-13 08:38:34	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xbd4ea7…
07-13 08:12:11	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x4fc5cc…
07-08 06:17:44	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x3d28a5…
07-08 06:16:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0xc94ea5…
07-07 14:33:38	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x751cfe…
07-07 13:08:02	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$3	0x4d468a…
07-07 12:54:29	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x06c78a…
07-04 01:34:53	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0x06f126…
07-04 01:25:04	Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xff4834…
07-04 00:50:34	Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x66973a…
07-04 00:39:23	Will Sabrina Carpenter be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	168	98¢	$165	0x3b1482…
07-04 00:37:02	Will Sabrina Carpenter be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xb66603…
07-04 00:30:11	Will Sabrina Carpenter be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	107	97¢	$104	0x067428…
07-04 00:29:31	will este haim be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa0f122…
07-04 00:22:07	Will Cara Delevingne be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x17dcf7…
07-04 00:19:53	will este haim be one of taylor swifts bridesmaids	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x509947…
06-27 08:25:52	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x061cd8…
06-26 04:38:44	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xe1d984…
06-25 22:53:49	will sgolne royal advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xab9652…
06-25 22:53:43	will sgolne royal advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x4276a3…
06-25 22:53:41	will sgolne royal advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x0dd7fd…
06-24 15:14:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x63de02…
06-24 15:10:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0xb42cfd…
06-24 14:52:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x864171…
06-24 14:46:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xf1cfbd…
06-24 07:40:02	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x773ee7…
06-24 02:04:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xa22df5…
06-24 01:39:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 01:35 UTC	Down	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x531c7c…
06-24 00:34:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xcc6dcd…
06-23 10:10:46	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xa96e64…
06-23 00:15:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xeed110…
06-23 00:05:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x546f1c…
06-22 02:32:22	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x46b1a8…
06-22 01:33:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 01:30 UTC	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x78792e…
06-22 00:48:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x20f27a…
06-22 00:43:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 00:40 UTC	Down	SELL	17	77¢	$13	0x1bb6bd…
06-22 00:41:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 00:40 UTC	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xdf18d2…
06-21 23:59:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 23:55 UTC	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x2cfbd0…
06-21 23:56:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 23:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x27759d…
06-21 23:39:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 23:35 UTC	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x14d01f…
06-21 23:38:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 23:35 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xa322c5…
06-21 21:51:29	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x418128…
06-21 13:45:49	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x04cbac…
06-21 03:13:29	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf593e2…
06-21 01:30:11	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x0e4f27…
06-21 01:29:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x12df71…
06-21 01:16:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x81a93e…
06-21 00:57:35	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xfcb983…
06-21 00:52:02	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xb53513…
06-20 21:43:35	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x791785…
06-20 20:57:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xe24900…
06-20 20:32:37	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xbc14c1…
06-20 14:52:44	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x6ea27e…
06-20 14:50:47	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x6f5864…
06-20 14:50:46	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x084ed4…
06-20 14:43:49	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xbc34ec…
06-20 14:25:46	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0xc13048…
06-20 14:25:46	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x96705d…
06-20 13:57:41	will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x850a65…
06-20 13:56:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x724a47…
06-20 13:35:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0xf5d8bb…
06-20 13:32:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x562d25…
06-20 13:30:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	83¢	$12	0x8a84dd…
06-20 13:30:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0xf26f45…
06-20 08:14:44	will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x749d71…
06-20 04:49:40	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x5fcfd0…
06-20 03:13:17	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xfdbc4f…
06-20 03:11:50	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x1d6d31…
06-20 03:07:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xb93318…
06-20 00:50:04	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x603330…
06-20 00:17:02	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0x506744…
06-20 00:14:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	49	75¢	$36	0xdb4fd2…
06-19 03:47:53	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x2094fc…
06-18 23:09:59	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x676889…
06-18 15:14:11	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0xd0107d…
06-18 14:41:01	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x7c8278…
06-18 14:12:35	will steve witkoff attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204726	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x511e86…
06-18 14:07:32	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x70b168…