Alive-Temper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

4.1%

Resolved

Trades

154

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 09-08 11:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

42% 16% -$7

Politics

31% 8% -$3

Crypto

21% 16% +$10

Sports

7% 33% +$13

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	4	$715	358	358	+0	No	$0	04-07 09:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$516	262	262	+0	No	$0	03-29 09:17
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	2	$511	258	258	+0	No	-$1	03-10 14:49
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	2	$434	220	220	+0	No	$0	04-03 12:25
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	2	$431	218	218	+0	No	-$1	04-03 12:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$407	204	204	+0	Yes	$0	03-02 06:31
will qatar strike iran by march 31	2	$400	208	208	+0	No	$0	03-25 11:35
ethereum above 2400 on april 1	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	04-01 08:27
Will EdgeX launch a token by September 30, 2026?	2	$399	200	200	+0	Yes	-$1	03-20 05:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$399	214	214	+0	No	-$1	03-29 09:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$389	201	200	+0	No	$0	04-07 09:22
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$387	204	204	+0	No	$0	04-07 09:26
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$360	188	188	+0	No	$0	03-25 11:36
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$340	174	174	+0	No	$0	02-27 08:13
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$300	152	152	+0	No	$0	03-29 09:16
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	2	$266	138	138	+0	No	$0	04-03 12:25
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$240	120	120	+0	No	$0	03-17 04:50
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$220	112	112	+0	No	$0	03-17 04:52
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	2	$220	111	111	+0	No	$0	03-02 06:33
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 220 239	2	$220	111	111	+0	No	$0	03-07 14:30
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$200	100	100	+0	Yes	$0	05-03 15:03
will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-06 05:21
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$200	102	102	+0	Yes	$0	03-20 05:41
bitcoin above 72k on april 7	2	$200	102	102	+0	No	$0	04-07 09:33
highest temperature in london on march 13 2026 6c	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-12 11:16
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	2	$200	102	102	+0	No	$0	03-27 08:15
ethereum above 2100 on march 10	2	$199	102	102	+0	No	-$1	03-10 14:48
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$160	83	83	+0	No	$0	03-05 05:31
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$104	55	55	+0	No	$0	06-12 10:23
will gold gc hit high 6200 by end of march	2	$100	50	50	+0	No	$0	03-22 09:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-08 11:13:27	Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 September 7-13?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x085862…
09-08 11:13:18	Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 September 7-13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x439e77…
07-07 04:57:50	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x869fd9…
07-07 04:57:41	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xb1902d…
06-26 13:13:13	will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xcf3db9…
06-26 13:13:07	will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa1a08d…
06-20 10:31:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x91f4da…
06-20 10:31:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x9d5edf…
06-16 04:02:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xc2366c…
06-16 04:02:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xcfe442…
06-12 10:23:42	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0xd66c66…
06-12 10:21:54	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0x2f11c0…
06-08 13:50:07	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on June 9?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6b8d2b…
06-08 13:42:40	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on June 9?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x68a17c…
06-04 22:55:25	lol mvk gam 2026 06 05	MVK Esports	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x2036bc…
06-04 06:25:19	dota2 grind carst 2026 06 04	Grind Back	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x6f572f…
06-04 06:23:42	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x857362…
06-03 07:22:28	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x79df27…
05-31 08:04:43	LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Deep Cross Gaming	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x5ab638…
05-31 04:53:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa10085…
05-28 08:46:19	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x962ff4…
05-28 08:45:58	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x98ecbe…
05-28 08:45:35	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x337508…
05-25 11:48:59	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x95e66e…
05-25 11:48:19	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xae6805…
05-20 13:22:45	LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs	E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x55a9c6…
05-20 13:09:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0x74a126…
05-20 13:07:14	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9ee736…
05-18 12:57:31	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x6ca518…
05-16 12:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x2bcf60…
05-16 12:02:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x397b99…
05-03 15:03:44	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf99f1b…
05-03 15:03:34	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x491ed4…
05-03 15:03:04	Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd4ee08…
05-03 15:01:44	Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x981597…
04-07 09:33:29	bitcoin above 72k on april 7	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x09ee0c…
04-07 09:33:19	bitcoin above 72k on april 7	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xe095b5…
04-07 09:26:05	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	204	95¢	$194	0xa1c69b…
04-07 09:25:55	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	204	95¢	$194	0x0c76fa…
04-07 09:22:57	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa97522…
04-07 09:22:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x1177bb…
04-07 09:22:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x9a95b8…
04-07 09:21:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	201	97¢	$195	0x7f6d2a…
04-03 12:28:11	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x9464a8…
04-03 12:28:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-03 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	37	50¢	$18	0x41078a…
04-03 12:26:51	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	No	SELL	218	98¢	$215	0x88937e…
04-03 12:26:45	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	No	BUY	218	99¢	$216	0xad116d…
04-03 12:25:57	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	138	96¢	$133	0x940574…
04-03 12:25:51	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	138	96¢	$133	0x10387d…
04-03 12:25:35	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	220	98¢	$217	0x3d7716…
04-03 12:25:29	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	220	98¢	$217	0x7ba389…
04-01 08:27:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x3e5559…
04-01 08:27:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xdee748…
04-01 08:27:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xa45586…
04-01 08:27:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x0a18ed…
04-01 08:27:35	ethereum above 2400 on april 1	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x4758e1…
04-01 08:27:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x094533…
04-01 08:27:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf234b4…
04-01 08:27:29	ethereum above 2400 on april 1	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xb6df0f…
04-01 08:27:27	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf1f98f…
04-01 08:26:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 08:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xa83438…
03-29 09:30:12	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xaae119…
03-29 09:30:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0x96bd01…
03-29 09:30:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x64e754…
03-29 09:30:10	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x5837fd…
03-29 09:18:36	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	SELL	258	100¢	$257	0x71d868…
03-29 09:18:30	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	BUY	258	100¢	$258	0xce875d…
03-29 09:17:48	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	262	98¢	$258	0x9b7455…
03-29 09:17:42	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	262	98¢	$258	0xd641fe…
03-29 09:17:24	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	214	93¢	$199	0x767916…
03-29 09:17:14	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	214	93¢	$200	0x8c6c51…
03-29 09:16:50	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x144d72…
03-29 09:16:44	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x225a65…
03-28 07:29:03	cbb ill iowa 2026 03 28	Iowa Hawkeyes	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0xc9ebd1…
03-27 08:16:11	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf0b7a9…
03-27 08:15:53	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	132	98¢	$130	0xdc23de…
03-27 08:15:47	Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	132	99¢	$130	0x12df75…
03-27 08:15:33	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x085094…
03-27 08:15:25	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x0920e0…
03-27 08:15:07	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x021a2f…
03-27 08:12:41	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x8ad2ef…
03-25 11:36:17	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x5d1e82…
03-25 11:36:03	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	188	96¢	$180	0xb1faf1…
03-25 11:35:55	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	188	96¢	$180	0x487ead…
03-25 11:35:29	will qatar strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	208	96¢	$200	0x6b568a…
03-25 11:35:23	will qatar strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0xf6512e…
03-25 11:33:59	will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc7391f…
03-22 09:50:59	nba por den 2026 03 22	Trail Blazers	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0xe5b03b…
03-22 09:50:59	nba por den 2026 03 22	Trail Blazers	BUY	113	24¢	$27	0x35ff81…
03-22 09:50:45	will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x7c1a3a…
03-22 09:49:51	will gold gc hit high 6200 by end of march	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xb46cd4…
03-20 05:42:09	will gold gc hit high 6200 by end of march	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xeca641…
03-20 05:41:47	Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x2d0987…
03-20 05:41:41	Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf4bc24…
03-20 05:41:23	Will EdgeX launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x0baaae…
03-20 05:41:15	Will EdgeX launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xb25697…
03-20 05:40:53	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	52	95¢	$49	0xd7cb80…
03-20 05:40:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-20 05:45 UTC	Down	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0xb020ca…
03-20 05:40:39	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xe426a6…
03-20 05:40:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-20 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xc60781…