Elaborate-Hold — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

100

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$1.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-29 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

54% 95% +$2

Politics

29% 100% +$4

Crypto

14% 100% +$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+37	$32	87¢	$32	$0	10-15 06:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	6	$100	52	52	+0	No	+$1	09-01 03:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$76	39	39	+0	No	+$1	09-07 12:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	2	$75	37	37	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 06:31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$1	10-01 01:34
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	2	$62	32	32	+0	Yes	+$0	10-12 22:24
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$40	42	0	+42	No	+$2	10-03 17:05
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	09-01 04:21
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-14 10:40
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$37	38	0	+38	No	+$0	08-13 13:42
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	1	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$0	08-05 00:50
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	08-20 20:48
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$32	37	0	+37	open	—	10-15 06:36
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	10-01 04:08
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	10-29 13:19
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	1	$30	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	09-23 08:43
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$30	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$26	26	0	+26	Yes	+$0	07-30 07:58
nvda above 130 on march 31 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	03-31 00:03
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-30 03:21
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	08-18 18:11
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$19	9	9	+0	open	—	10-16 16:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	08-28 02:11
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	09-22 13:43
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	3	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	01-19 06:25
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$11	11	0	+11	Yes	+$0	05-30 08:44
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$11	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-30 12:58
will nvda dip to 168 in june 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-29 00:10
aapl above 210 on february 27 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	Yes	+$0	02-25 12:01
gc settle 4350 4475 jan 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	01-23 21:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:19:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x281e73…
10-28 22:44:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0x12109b…
10-16 16:52:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x22d6d3…
10-15 06:36:38	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	37	88¢	$32	0x44e80f…
10-14 23:44:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	9	16¢	$1	0x95e8d4…
10-12 22:24:21	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x5e9dfb…
10-12 20:26:05	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xe733cd…
10-09 02:53:47	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdc5aea…
10-08 17:31:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x7a08b2…
10-03 17:05:30	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xe79338…
10-01 04:08:36	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x63b333…
10-01 01:34:27	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xde1246…
09-30 17:28:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x61ded2…
09-30 12:58:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9dd08e…
09-29 04:00:30	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x4fa95d…
09-23 08:43:25	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0xaf4432…
09-22 23:08:43	Will Solana reach $200 in September?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc39e93…
09-22 20:42:29	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xaace21…
09-22 13:43:31	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x3f1b6d…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x801055…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x77e719…
09-12 02:53:52	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1d1f9d…
09-07 12:47:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x63aca7…
09-04 14:15:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0x581f39…
09-01 04:21:49	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0xf37273…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x35d1c4…
08-28 02:11:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf0aa99…
08-27 14:46:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x9547da…
08-25 15:56:39	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x1560c8…
08-25 15:13:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xb4d759…
08-25 15:13:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$22	0x16a95e…
08-25 15:09:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$9	0x96a208…
08-25 09:24:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0xc976eb…
08-25 09:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xe0f2b7…
08-25 08:42:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2f6f62…
08-25 08:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x903c2d…
08-25 07:30:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x92d9bb…
08-25 07:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xb2f1c8…
08-25 07:28:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xb42877…
08-25 07:01:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x538bd2…
08-24 21:20:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x19ce59…
08-24 18:12:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x71e7f2…
08-24 18:12:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x51c171…
08-24 18:12:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x5221b4…
08-24 17:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x835d4e…
08-24 17:34:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xb101d9…
08-24 17:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x62f5e5…
08-23 23:46:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	35	96¢	$33	0x491cc0…
08-22 15:28:04	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4e849…
08-21 14:55:43	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xaf63b5…
08-20 20:48:28	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3f3a1f…
08-19 19:35:25	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2fdffc…
08-18 18:11:40	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xe04eb4…
08-14 10:40:51	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xa4ede5…
08-13 13:42:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$37	0xca1806…
08-13 06:31:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0xae105e…
08-09 14:17:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x285a26…
08-05 00:50:50	Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x0c8956…
07-30 07:58:00	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x8bda02…
07-28 23:32:23	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa8d3e0…
07-28 15:01:22	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd94e2b…
07-28 04:34:00	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x412fc7…
07-28 03:17:27	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x3b04d6…
07-27 00:14:37	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa1a64c…
07-26 03:10:33	will spy reach 770 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4c9588…
07-24 05:01:36	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2358ef…
07-23 13:44:15	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xef941a…
07-22 12:06:37	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in july 2026 918	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5822b8…
07-06 08:50:43	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb00508…
06-30 03:21:19	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xe2907f…
06-29 00:10:44	will nvda dip to 168 in june 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xac5873…
06-27 19:44:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x972cf5…
06-27 10:52:46	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa0c7a3…
05-30 08:44:03	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xb5eb0c…
05-11 15:21:50	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xcde82f…
05-11 12:53:30	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x913f8b…
05-11 05:56:53	Will Solana dip to $30 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x47a5f4…
05-10 00:18:46	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xba234a…
05-09 12:10:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x7b5eaa…
05-09 05:01:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4afdfe…
05-09 00:28:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6277d1…
05-08 06:42:45	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4c1b8d…
05-07 21:33:50	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x97cfb8…
05-07 10:56:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x10a930…
05-07 07:35:44	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xeb5dda…
05-06 10:10:02	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf5a94a…
04-28 05:34:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x95cdb6…
04-26 21:07:48	Will Solana reach $120 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x79b780…
04-24 23:53:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x03102f…
04-24 06:26:16	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xf165fe…
04-23 06:45:08	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6a04e8…
04-20 22:52:26	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x078bb9…
04-20 04:06:22	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa75c78…
04-18 22:35:12	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xf3e426…
04-18 05:03:12	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x9ddd43…
04-17 15:49:20	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe6661c…
04-17 09:04:34	Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x81768a…
04-16 00:53:04	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe3f2c7…
04-14 13:00:39	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa4a534…
03-31 00:03:37	nvda above 130 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1b50f2…