Frozen-Pancake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

70.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$93

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-01 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 59% +$1

Politics

17% 100% +$0

Other

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		-6	$-5	82¢	$-5	$-0	06-01 16:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$6	05-08 21:25
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	05-15 15:00
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$6	12	12	+0	open	—	05-25 10:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	$-5	05-07 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Up	$-5	05-06 20:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-06 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	+$2	05-07 20:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$5	0	6	-6	open	—	06-01 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 16:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 16:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 16:39
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	05-25 10:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	05-17 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Down	+$2	05-08 20:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	1	$2	3	0	+3	Down	$-2	05-07 20:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Down	$-2	05-10 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	Down	+$3	05-08 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	Up	+$3	05-08 21:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$2	3	0	+3	Up	+$1	05-06 21:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	Up	$-2	05-06 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	1	$1	50	0	+50	Up	$-1	05-10 17:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Up	$-1	05-10 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-16 19:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	$-1	05-09 07:21
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-10 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	$-1	05-10 19:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	+$1	05-08 21:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-10 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-06 20:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 16:00:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x185677…
05-25 10:07:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xe32f1f…
05-25 10:07:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0x17c414…
05-17 20:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf05908…
05-16 19:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb5f825…
05-16 19:28:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x083925…
05-15 15:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xccc186…
05-15 15:00:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x7218b2…
05-14 20:55:40	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x846989…
05-11 19:55:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xc0042f…
05-10 19:28:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x88d2e9…
05-10 19:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3e76fc…
05-10 19:20:17	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x10751c…
05-10 17:41:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xee6385…
05-10 17:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x71181e…
05-10 17:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x08cea7…
05-10 16:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x161b9d…
05-10 16:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x78da07…
05-10 16:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x25ccf5…
05-10 16:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xc23e17…
05-10 16:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x89421d…
05-10 16:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x48c391…
05-10 16:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x6d2a1d…
05-10 16:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x224bac…
05-10 16:36:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x48d336…
05-09 07:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd9f2d1…
05-08 21:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x7a42d7…
05-08 21:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x111ce6…
05-08 21:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc8bc76…
05-08 21:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x2a7128…
05-08 21:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x8998b0…
05-08 21:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x28dfa2…
05-08 20:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x065d23…
05-07 20:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xff5f04…
05-07 20:35:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xce45ed…
05-07 20:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xd690fb…
05-06 21:07:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x8e01cb…
05-06 20:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x73f842…
05-06 20:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc621e9…
05-06 20:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x87eee1…
05-06 20:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa52998…
05-06 20:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x32fed8…