Medium-Booklet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$54

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

159 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$757

$2.55K lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$119

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-05 19:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Politics

44% 92% +$56

Other

41% 100% +$5

Crypto

11% 100% +$2

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes		+120	$116	99¢	$119	+$3	11-05 19:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$234	119	119	+0	Yes	+$1	10-29 15:16
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$224	117	117	+0	No	+$2	10-28 11:10
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	3	$169	115	57	+57	No	+$0	09-14 15:38
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	1	$120	120	0	+120	Yes	+$0	11-04 05:23
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$119	60	60	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:39
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	1	$116	120	0	+120	open	—	11-05 19:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$112	70	47	+23	No	+$1	08-27 14:46
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	2	$105	53	53	+0	No	+$0	08-13 13:24
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$101	59	59	+0	Yes	+$1	10-05 14:55
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$58	58	0	+58	No	+$0	09-16 00:34
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?	1	$57	57	0	+57	Yes	+$0	09-04 02:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$56	57	0	+57	No	+$0	09-05 12:37
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$53	54	0	+54	No	+$1	08-04 21:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$53	54	0	+54	No	+$1	08-14 02:15
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	08-11 20:04
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	1	$49	54	0	+54	No	+$5	10-21 22:42
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:18
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$48	48	0	+48	Yes	+$0	08-20 02:23
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	06-27 14:15
will xi jinping visit us by september 23	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	09-23 11:02
will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$0	07-31 22:36
Will Solana reach $160 in September?	3	$29	16	13	+3	No	+$0	09-29 06:52
will dogecoin reach 0pt15 in march 2026	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	03-31 13:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$0	10-01 00:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	08-31 20:39
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$23	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	02-28 16:56
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	06-28 18:57
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	09-29 14:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	04-29 07:02
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$17	18	0	+18	Yes	+$0	05-16 19:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 19:05:46	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	120	96¢	$116	0x66ac7e…
11-04 05:23:30	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x60872d…
10-29 15:16:04	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	119	98¢	$118	0xd78f63…
10-29 09:16:31	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	119	98¢	$117	0xa3c852…
10-28 11:10:08	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	117	96¢	$113	0x84173a…
10-27 20:55:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	117	95¢	$111	0xc89cdc…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x5dc119…
10-21 22:42:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	54	91¢	$49	0x6f9ea9…
10-17 12:45:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	60	23¢	$14	0x17c6ab…
10-08 05:39:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xaa96a9…
10-06 05:51:10	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x927837…
10-05 14:55:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	59	86¢	$51	0x950b4b…
10-05 02:21:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	46	85¢	$39	0xfb8994…
10-05 02:20:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x9e6082…
10-01 00:06:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x6dc903…
09-30 17:25:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf4c823…
09-30 17:09:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xe1cc82…
09-30 14:06:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd411c7…
09-30 12:58:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9dd08e…
09-29 14:01:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x625b49…
09-29 06:52:18	Will Solana reach $160 in September?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x481e60…
09-29 06:28:08	Will Solana reach $160 in September?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe56047…
09-29 05:19:23	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xdeffc7…
09-29 00:44:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x94fd2e…
09-27 18:11:27	Will Solana reach $160 in September?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x179d1f…
09-27 10:23:36	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in September?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc8be0c…
09-26 14:49:41	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9de71e…
09-24 14:08:35	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x32a1e7…
09-23 11:02:19	will xi jinping visit us by september 23	Yes	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xfe1a04…
09-23 02:32:16	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x06e641…
09-22 21:57:26	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0972a2…
09-16 00:34:42	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xef79b9…
09-14 15:38:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x01b9b0…
09-12 02:42:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	57	97¢	$56	0xe744a9…
09-10 23:08:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	57	97¢	$56	0xf5f22c…
09-05 12:37:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0x3c2a9c…
09-04 02:26:00	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xdbe64f…
08-31 20:39:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x14ac12…
08-31 20:18:55	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x4544e1…
08-30 12:47:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xebdda4…
08-27 14:46:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	94¢	$22	0x9547da…
08-26 16:43:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	47	97¢	$45	0xcbaf99…
08-26 16:19:19	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd0395d…
08-24 04:29:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	47	97¢	$45	0x940417…
08-22 04:43:58	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x71d1ba…
08-20 02:23:07	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x1fd7ac…
08-18 07:08:39	will xauusd dip to 3400 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7a159e…
08-17 16:49:01	Will Meituan be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5531c4…
08-17 00:21:58	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x69ce1b…
08-14 02:15:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	54	98¢	$53	0x4056bb…
08-13 13:24:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x7a0f48…
08-13 03:14:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0xc23210…
08-11 20:04:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xe7bc1f…
08-06 03:47:41	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9c4b0…
08-04 21:54:14	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0x3876f3…
07-31 22:36:44	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x04aa35…
07-31 16:48:20	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xdbb9fe…
07-31 06:30:17	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6cf52e…
07-31 04:56:18	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf92319…
07-31 00:20:14	will meta dip to 480 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xf9b002…
07-31 00:00:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc287a6…
07-30 16:20:27	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x68fd5a…
07-30 08:56:44	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3d9b36…
07-29 23:36:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb6c588…
07-29 06:33:41	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7e1d6b…
07-28 22:10:43	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x562516…
07-26 03:00:21	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x57b046…
07-25 15:47:30	will bitcoin dip to 45k in july 2026 597	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdd13d8…
07-25 12:21:37	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc974ac…
07-22 21:43:37	will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc5675c…
07-03 02:53:44	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x931374…
06-30 02:44:17	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa2a80c…
06-29 12:59:19	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7de664…
06-29 03:18:59	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb41a6f…
06-29 02:15:52	will coin reach 195 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4c707e…
06-28 18:57:37	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x4fc793…
06-27 14:15:25	Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x0d6fb0…
05-30 07:09:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc9156a…
05-30 06:16:45	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x89209a…
05-28 13:29:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x699c18…
05-26 00:25:37	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	92¢	$9	0x35e8d2…
05-24 08:06:34	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd39e84…
05-18 01:45:12	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4c0064…
05-16 19:20:43	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$17	0x0c82c5…
05-14 02:07:23	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9734d2…
05-11 05:47:45	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbb6967…
05-10 19:20:54	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3588d6…
05-09 15:36:29	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x739f72…
05-09 08:17:14	Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3c6e96…
05-08 17:08:53	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8f40be…
05-08 02:34:10	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcb95ce…
05-08 01:32:27	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbb0e23…
05-06 10:37:20	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd36bc2…
05-05 13:50:10	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x449def…
05-05 12:22:56	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbeb419…
05-05 11:55:30	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x99bb7b…
05-05 08:16:40	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x72c956…
04-29 07:02:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x10ad39…
04-24 18:19:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x509de3…
04-23 21:31:56	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7c520d…