Realized P&L
-$89.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$10.1K
Hit rate
59.6%
Resolved
482
Trades
5,558
lifetime
Volume
$1.61M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$290
Open exposure
$80.2K
8 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 07-08 23:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 125 days
Categories
Politics
63%
52%
-$59,635
Other
29%
53%
-$21,946
Sports
6%
54%
-$7,906
Crypto
2%
27%
+$1,356
Tech
0%
40%
-$1,296
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-08).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -37,500 | -$31,340 | 82¢ | $-30562 | +$777 | 07-01 19:26 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +30,626 | $26,271 | 94¢ | $28.6K | +$2,364 | 06-25 22:48 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +16,206 | $6,026 | 88¢ | $14.3K | +$8,317 | 07-08 20:00 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | -4,650 | -$1,255 | 55¢ | $-2581 | -$1,325 | 06-15 18:45 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | +3,366 | $2,188 | 76¢ | $2.5K | +$353 | 06-30 17:34 | |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | -67,878 | -$1,332 | 2¢ | $-1493 | -$162 | 06-17 11:35 | |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | +400 | $256 | 2¢ | $7 | -$249 | 05-10 04:21 | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Yes | +4 | $1 | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | 06-09 02:00 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 60 | $90.8K | 67,200 | 39,905 | +27,295 | No | +$10,332 | 01-24 04:39 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 184 | $75.8K | 74,875 | 80,425 | -5,550 | Yes | -$17,262 | 02-28 07:32 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 68 | $66.8K | 23,471 | 60,971 | -37,500 | open | — | 07-01 19:26 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 76 | $47.3K | 32,700 | 32,700 | +0 | No | -$4,656 | 01-31 00:18 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 21 | $43.1K | 22,500 | 22,500 | +0 | No | +$1,525 | 06-14 21:04 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 168 | $41.7K | 21,000 | 24,000 | -3,000 | No | +$1,728 | 02-18 15:06 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | 52 | $39.7K | 38,626 | 8,000 | +30,626 | open | — | 06-25 22:48 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 82 | $39.1K | 68,063 | 44,063 | +24,000 | Yes | +$2,996 | 06-16 06:51 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 14 | $34.3K | 35,000 | 0 | +35,000 | No | +$682 | 02-24 02:08 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 25 | $32.7K | 34,000 | 0 | +34,000 | No | +$1,304 | 03-19 04:12 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 14 | $29.9K | 19,729 | 19,729 | -0 | No | -$88 | 06-25 17:59 |
| us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913 | 58 | $28.9K | 34,500 | 34,500 | +0 | No | -$3,734 | 01-14 22:11 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 30 | $28.3K | 16,000 | 16,000 | +0 | No | +$1,120 | 03-28 06:53 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 113 | $26.5K | 42,622 | 15,500 | +27,122 | Yes | -$3,928 | 04-02 05:19 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13 | 15 | $25.0K | 12,800 | 12,800 | +0 | No | +$424 | 06-17 06:48 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 14 | $23.3K | 15,700 | 10,500 | +5,200 | No | +$2,360 | 04-01 01:52 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | 85 | $20.9K | 21,000 | 14,250 | +6,750 | No | +$172 | 07-02 07:05 |
| us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992 | 13 | $18.5K | 9,530 | 9,530 | +0 | No | +$498 | 02-20 03:09 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026 | 30 | $18.2K | 17,400 | 6,200 | +11,200 | No | -$1,096 | 04-15 18:46 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 25 | $18.2K | 18,000 | 1,700 | +16,300 | Yes | -$252 | 02-04 01:02 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 39 | $17.7K | 24,429 | 7,750 | +16,679 | Yes | -$11,298 | 07-07 19:27 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 29 | $17.7K | 9,546 | 9,546 | +0 | open | — | 05-28 04:47 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 70 | $17.7K | 25,821 | 25,821 | +0 | Yes | -$2,295 | 06-13 21:04 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 11 | $16.1K | 16,400 | 16,400 | +0 | Yes | -$9,912 | 02-28 16:57 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 164 | $15.9K | 13,973 | 12,773 | +1,200 | No | +$712 | 05-01 01:16 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | 7 | $15.5K | 8,000 | 7,998 | +2 | No | +$296 | 04-30 05:37 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 12 | $15.1K | 9,890 | 9,500 | +390 | No | +$2,858 | 06-01 14:55 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 47 | $15.0K | 19,122 | 8,657 | +10,466 | No | +$4,296 | 06-29 18:29 |
| us strikes iran by february 24 2026 | 7 | $14.7K | 7,500 | 7,500 | +0 | No | +$242 | 02-25 01:40 |
| us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671 | 4 | $14.3K | 10,500 | 5,500 | +5,000 | No | +$1,206 | 06-12 05:30 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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