Reliable-Grove — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$139

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

65.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$323

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-26 21:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 38% $-13

Other

6% — —

Politics

5% 100% +$152

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No		+16	$4	27¢	$4	+$0	06-24 21:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	6	$80	118	118	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	3	$21	35	16	+19	Down	+$1	05-12 18:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$17	30	13	+17	Down	$-0	05-13 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	5	$17	235	0	+235	Up	$-17	05-14 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	6	$16	142	0	+142	Up	$-16	05-14 00:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$15	167	0	+167	Yes	+$152	05-06 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	3	$14	30	10	+20	Up	+$2	05-12 19:48
will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	06-26 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	6	$13	109	0	+109	Up	+$0	05-14 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	2	$13	9	9	+0	Up	+$3	05-12 19:51
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	06-15 05:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	3	$11	26	0	+26	Down	$-6	05-14 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	4	$6	16	4	+13	open	—	05-20 21:44
btc updown 5m 1781039100	2	$6	33	0	+33	open	—	06-09 21:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$6	26	0	+26	open	—	05-17 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	3	$6	8	8	+0	open	—	06-03 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$5	22	0	+22	Up	$-5	05-12 19:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	$-5	05-13 23:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$5	17	0	+17	Up	$-5	05-12 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$5	26	0	+26	Down	$-5	05-14 00:21
btc updown 5m 1780557900	3	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	06-04 07:29
btc updown 5m 1780558200	4	$4	31	0	+31	open	—	06-04 07:32
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	1	$4	16	0	+16	open	—	06-24 21:32
btc updown 5m 1781501400	2	$4	13	0	+13	open	—	06-15 05:33
btc updown 5m 1781038800	3	$3	7	3	+5	open	—	06-09 21:02
btc updown 5m 1781038500	3	$3	25	0	+25	open	—	06-09 20:58
btc updown 5m 1781039700	2	$2	54	0	+54	open	—	06-09 21:17
btc updown 5m 1781039400	2	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	06-09 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$2	11	0	+11	open	—	06-02 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$2	20	0	+20	open	—	05-20 21:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 21:49:01	will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x855077…
06-24 21:32:05	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x56c1db…
06-24 21:30:49	will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xa63481…
06-15 05:33:07	btc updown 5m 1781501400	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5a8753…
06-15 05:30:21	btc updown 5m 1781501400	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xcd94e4…
06-15 05:29:30	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xabe996…
06-15 04:16:39	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xfa1299…
06-09 21:20:51	btc updown 5m 1781040000	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xee27a9…
06-09 21:17:58	btc updown 5m 1781039700	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x65a8f4…
06-09 21:15:54	btc updown 5m 1781039700	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd04ae7…
06-09 21:14:22	btc updown 5m 1781039400	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x193934…
06-09 21:12:43	btc updown 5m 1781039400	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xca836b…
06-09 21:07:30	btc updown 5m 1781039100	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x35d1b8…
06-09 21:06:46	btc updown 5m 1781039100	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xd11142…
06-09 21:02:04	btc updown 5m 1781038800	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x14b461…
06-09 21:01:13	btc updown 5m 1781038800	Down	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0x23b8ba…
06-09 21:00:54	btc updown 5m 1781038800	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x55a2a6…
06-09 20:58:58	btc updown 5m 1781038500	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xedd25a…
06-09 20:57:55	btc updown 5m 1781038500	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa92c1c…
06-09 20:57:25	btc updown 5m 1781038500	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xcf5263…
06-04 07:32:39	btc updown 5m 1780558200	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5d60ce…
06-04 07:29:37	btc updown 5m 1780558200	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf8960f…
06-04 07:29:12	btc updown 5m 1780557900	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x5501c1…
06-04 07:28:45	btc updown 5m 1780557900	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x8773b4…
06-04 07:28:12	btc updown 5m 1780557900	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbef38a…
06-04 07:27:43	btc updown 5m 1780558200	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x182526…
06-04 07:27:42	btc updown 5m 1780558200	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3110ef…
06-03 00:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0x5ad349…
06-03 00:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0xb40b26…
06-03 00:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6a5570…
06-02 23:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x875c5b…
06-02 23:59:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xba47b9…
06-02 23:48:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xbbb5bb…
05-31 22:35:05	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	No	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xc609c1…
05-20 21:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xde55d4…
05-20 21:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	4	92¢	$3	0xc5f671…
05-20 21:42:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xec0e32…
05-20 21:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdda9c0…
05-20 21:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x74a215…
05-20 21:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x527b2f…
05-17 07:24:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x67bfdf…
05-17 07:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x7e4b9b…
05-17 07:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6e1961…
05-14 00:21:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x644e88…
05-14 00:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x221059…
05-14 00:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xb40755…
05-14 00:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x63abc3…
05-14 00:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x4f6298…
05-14 00:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xa7025e…
05-14 00:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xf8f351…
05-14 00:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x650017…
05-14 00:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x60c8b0…
05-14 00:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x66feaf…
05-14 00:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x53a3dc…
05-14 00:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8d3d02…
05-14 00:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x767a24…
05-14 00:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xabf880…
05-14 00:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0x21fe75…
05-14 00:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x05c068…
05-14 00:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x02933e…
05-14 00:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x61b598…
05-14 00:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc01997…
05-14 00:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x51e94a…
05-14 00:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x0ef406…
05-13 23:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x91bf6f…
05-13 23:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	36	96¢	$34	0x342c23…
05-13 23:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x060eb7…
05-13 23:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf8fc0f…
05-13 23:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	82	31¢	$26	0x4f2a64…
05-13 23:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x310e68…
05-13 23:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xed4ad4…
05-13 23:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9f2e4e…
05-13 23:46:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xc53992…
05-13 23:46:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	13	49¢	$6	0xbf695e…
05-13 23:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x157dd0…
05-12 19:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xe58e17…
05-12 19:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x45431c…
05-12 19:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xd2695d…
05-12 19:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4c0aa6…
05-12 19:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xddb03c…
05-12 19:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xe16e2a…
05-12 19:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x5e5102…
05-12 18:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x5d7be8…
05-12 18:56:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	16	68¢	$11	0xc69880…
05-12 18:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x880d46…
05-06 15:31:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	9¢	$15	0x86cad0…