Monumental-Nurture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$97

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

64.0%

Resolved

960

Trades

2,087

lifetime

Volume

$4.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-27 01:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 288 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 47% -$77

Politics

5% 50% -$22

Other

2% 37% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes		+2	$1	78¢	$1	+$0	05-12 02:02
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+21	$1	4¢	$1	$0	08-04 13:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$184	400	400	+0	No	+$4	03-26 10:35
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$66	400	447	-47	No	-$26	03-28 03:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 06:45 UTC	3	$36	0	50	-50	Down	-$14	02-11 06:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 08:00 UTC	5	$32	0	51	-51	Down	+$3	02-11 08:13
will goat opening weekend box office be between 23m and 26m	2	$29	50	50	+0	No	+$0	02-14 12:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 11:30 UTC	4	$27	14	28	-14	Up	+$1	01-17 11:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 16:45 UTC	2	$25	0	48	-48	Down	+$1	01-17 16:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 08:35 UTC	3	$25	63	0	+63	Up	+$7	02-22 08:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 07:40 UTC	4	$24	62	0	+62	Up	+$2	02-22 07:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 07:55 UTC	3	$24	59	0	+59	Down	+$3	02-22 07:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 04:00 UTC	6	$23	0	42	-42	Up	+$2	01-24 04:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 07:15 UTC	3	$22	0	30	-30	Up	+$2	02-11 07:26
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	12	$21	45	0	+45	Delhi Capitals	+$2	05-17 17:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 03:30 UTC	7	$20	10	25	-15	Up	+$1	01-18 03:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 07:30 UTC	2	$19	52	0	+52	Up	+$1	02-22 07:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:35 UTC	4	$18	55	0	+55	Down	+$7	04-10 00:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 05:35 UTC	4	$18	43	0	+43	Up	+$4	02-22 05:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 06:45 UTC	6	$18	35	0	+35	Up	-$2	02-22 06:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	7	$17	61	0	+61	Up	+$2	05-19 04:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 07:25 UTC	5	$17	35	0	+35	Down	$0	06-28 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	6	$16	39	0	+39	Down	+$2	05-30 04:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 02:00 UTC	6	$16	10	15	-5	Up	+$1	02-13 02:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 03:45 UTC	5	$16	0	25	-25	Up	+$1	02-12 03:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 03:30 UTC	5	$16	38	0	+38	Up	+$1	03-27 03:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 07:20 UTC	4	$16	32	0	+32	Down	+$0	06-28 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	9	$16	50	0	+50	Up	+$4	05-12 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	5	$15	37	0	+37	Down	$0	05-27 07:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 09:15 UTC	2	$15	34	0	+34	Up	+$5	02-22 09:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 08:30 UTC	2	$15	27	0	+27	Down	-$8	02-22 08:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 06:00 UTC	4	$15	35	0	+35	Up	+$1	02-22 06:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 01:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd82232…
10-27 01:24:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0xeb67b9…
10-26 02:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0ee572…
10-26 01:52:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x97878b…
10-25 00:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x4fd001…
10-25 00:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x0be6e6…
10-25 00:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0xa62c80…
10-24 03:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x904b81…
10-24 02:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0xc80848…
10-23 08:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9e8471…
10-23 08:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x044190…
10-23 07:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x0a6929…
10-22 14:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6a8800…
10-22 13:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x99cdc5…
10-21 12:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x03b20f…
10-21 12:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0xb02914…
10-20 13:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x650f9b…
10-20 13:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x78367c…
10-19 05:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xa83eea…
10-19 04:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0xd8580c…
10-18 03:53:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:50 UTC	Down	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x5a1721…
10-18 03:46:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:50 UTC	Up	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x214cb5…
10-17 03:27:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 03:25 UTC	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x45c7d9…
10-16 05:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa78013…
10-16 05:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x680d3a…
10-15 14:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4592ad…
10-15 14:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0xd28189…
10-14 02:09:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:05 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x465995…
10-13 04:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb3a3ca…
10-12 03:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x9c68d2…
10-11 03:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xaaeae3…
10-10 02:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x4ae4f5…
10-09 01:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0xa2aeb9…
10-08 02:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa88e40…
10-07 02:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x5cd493…
10-07 02:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0xbbb75b…
10-06 03:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x57c264…
10-06 03:16:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x92458e…
10-06 03:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x586a0d…
10-05 03:22:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 03:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfd41f7…
10-05 03:18:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 03:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x0fdb6e…
10-04 02:49:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x61a9ca…
10-04 02:47:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x8f9e2a…
10-04 02:43:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 02:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0xfbc9e1…
10-03 08:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3f5069…
10-03 08:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x44cf6e…
10-02 01:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x18c294…
10-02 01:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0xd81a6c…
10-01 02:41:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 02:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x3bb211…
09-30 03:05:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 03:05 UTC	Up	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x48498d…
09-30 03:03:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 03:05 UTC	Down	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x71d649…
09-29 03:19:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf677df…
09-28 04:29:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 04:25 UTC	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc16f4c…
09-27 02:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa08a70…
09-26 04:17:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 04:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6c0e18…
09-25 14:17:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0xcdf2e9…
09-24 06:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc15d49…
09-23 02:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xfa5b36…
09-23 02:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0x265897…
09-22 02:28:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 02:25 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x97ef4e…
09-21 03:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x94e0f9…
09-20 03:19:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 03:20 UTC	Up	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x8fbf1e…
09-20 03:19:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-20 03:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x2295cf…
09-19 01:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x162ea0…
09-18 11:37:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5e38c6…
09-17 02:44:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 02:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x24aea3…
09-16 02:28:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x5c34e2…
09-15 13:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6f905e…
09-14 02:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xcfb909…
09-13 02:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9ba0f2…
09-12 02:41:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0xb6331b…
09-11 03:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xdf6ba2…
09-10 01:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbd91d2…
09-09 03:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xca1639…
09-08 13:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xc22250…
09-07 02:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd17099…
09-06 03:38:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa6f9ea…
09-05 14:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x49b135…
09-04 02:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa032c6…
09-04 02:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xdf7f75…
09-04 02:30:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x37380e…
09-03 04:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc9c4a9…
09-02 17:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8e2d88…
09-01 02:44:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-01 02:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x65198a…
08-31 01:38:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 01:35 UTC	Down	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x8aa526…
08-31 01:37:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 01:35 UTC	Up	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x5f8c1f…
08-30 02:33:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 02:30 UTC	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb38e3a…
08-30 02:31:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 02:30 UTC	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x60056c…
08-30 02:30:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 02:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	46¢	$0	0xd94fb1…
08-29 14:19:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 14:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9c0714…
08-28 13:54:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 13:50 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbb138a…
08-27 02:44:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 02:40 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8ee752…
08-26 14:24:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcdc2e2…
08-25 02:28:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 02:25 UTC	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1f3a40…
08-24 14:08:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 14:05 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8b437c…
08-23 06:13:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 06:10 UTC	Down	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x8d8221…
08-23 06:13:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 06:10 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc188e2…
08-22 14:18:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x2b2d22…
08-21 04:24:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 04:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb2a15e…
08-20 06:19:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 06:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf1ee34…