Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$6

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

67.5%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

78 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$74

$110 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-20

last 11-05 22:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

75% 62% +$4

Politics

21% 58% -$3

Tech

4% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes		+2	$1	27¢	$1	$0	11-05 14:36
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	Yes		+2	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	11-05 06:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	2	$5	3	3	+0	No	+$1	08-26 08:39
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	08-26 08:39
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	2	$3	5	5	+0	No	+$1	08-26 08:40
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	2	$3	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	08-26 08:39
iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	07-23 12:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-22 12:42
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-27 01:02
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	0	+4	cancelled	+$0	07-31 10:36
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	07-20 12:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	08-13 11:25
will trump say crazy during remarks in new york 20260811183234686	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-12 05:38
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	-$2	08-15 16:36
will warsh say ai or artificial intelligence during july press conference 20260720204109043	1	$2	7	0	+7	Yes	-$2	07-24 00:50
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$3	08-11 21:37
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	-$2	08-11 13:20
Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	08-16 09:36
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	7	0	+7	No	-$2	08-16 17:40
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	6	0	+6	Yes	-$2	08-16 00:38
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$2	9	0	+9	Yes	+$7	08-11 05:18
spx up or down on august 11 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	Down	-$2	08-11 13:20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-14 19:27
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-15 05:25
will trump say stock market during remarks in new york 20260811183234690	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	08-13 03:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-21 12:42
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-23 00:43
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	07-26 00:54
will trump say drill baby drill during michigan remarks 20260724162420368	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-26 12:58
will trump say hell 3 times during cabinet meeting 20260727172357440	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	07-30 07:06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	07-21 00:42
will trump say shots fired or shots will be fired during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255814	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	07-24 12:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 22:52:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa152c5…
11-05 14:36:22	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb71fed…
11-05 06:34:04	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x14d89f…
11-02 21:01:46	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x4648c6…
10-30 07:54:25	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x23364d…
10-29 07:34:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x49324d…
10-28 23:34:40	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf3bc1a…
10-27 00:04:48	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x66d019…
10-26 04:00:12	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4a2638…
10-24 07:21:47	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xfb27db…
10-22 20:45:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5ae164…
10-22 12:44:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xadb0ca…
10-22 04:44:21	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfd5919…
10-21 20:05:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xcf97c0…
10-21 11:57:06	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xb521c7…
10-21 03:56:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xec906d…
10-18 07:52:50	Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 6% to 8%?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb8f26e…
10-17 23:50:47	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9f16c0…
10-16 13:52:24	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x9a1b88…
10-16 05:45:33	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf30a2b…
10-15 09:37:55	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x966003…
10-15 01:28:23	spy closes above 765 on october 15 2026	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe235c6…
10-09 15:20:16	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xde6f57…
10-09 03:41:09	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6146be…
10-06 18:34:57	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x139716…
10-06 18:34:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x184665…
09-11 23:11:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x4a506b…
08-29 13:18:27	Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.1M in July?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x110121…
08-29 04:03:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa5e094…
08-27 07:37:58	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x8b9cdd…
08-26 08:40:09	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x76082f…
08-26 08:39:49	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	Yes	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x6886eb…
08-26 08:39:40	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x61ee98…
08-26 08:39:30	Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xd9da8f…
08-24 21:14:57	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8c35fd…
08-24 01:05:51	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xea2417…
08-23 15:49:55	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xfb4cbb…
08-22 19:03:51	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x5e1bda…
08-22 09:47:55	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd71601…
08-21 00:16:36	Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4bc53b…
08-21 00:15:01	spy up or down on august 21 2026	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x872fd3…
08-19 15:43:07	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x44d417…
08-19 13:49:52	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x819b82…
08-19 05:48:22	wti closes above 84 on august 19 2026	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x26293e…
08-16 17:40:15	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x14cd1a…
08-16 09:36:06	Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x102180…
08-16 00:38:52	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x0a68fc…
08-15 16:36:49	Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xf72f3e…
08-15 05:25:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xb87a9c…
08-14 19:27:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x7f1aa8…
08-13 11:25:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xd7b260…
08-13 03:23:49	will trump say stock market during remarks in new york 20260811183234690	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x47476b…
08-12 05:38:15	will trump say crazy during remarks in new york 20260811183234686	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xb8b1b6…
08-11 21:37:24	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x15dfae…
08-11 13:20:28	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1f48e1…
08-11 13:20:00	spx up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x8ab004…
08-11 05:18:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x7f1c3b…
07-31 18:41:23	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2cc078…
07-31 10:36:59	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x6e3e9e…
07-30 07:06:42	will trump say hell 3 times during cabinet meeting 20260727172357440	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x36e610…
07-29 19:23:45	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xe53c09…
07-29 06:14:11	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x327a93…
07-28 10:36:31	will trump say nobody like him during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556638	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x86ba94…
07-28 01:25:03	will trump say hell 2 times during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556633	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xff70dd…
07-27 01:02:51	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x82e009…
07-26 12:58:33	will trump say drill baby drill during michigan remarks 20260724162420368	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x01ca48…
07-26 00:54:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x86c94f…
07-25 12:53:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xd6bed3…
07-25 00:53:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4bdb85…
07-24 12:52:21	will trump say shots fired or shots will be fired during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255814	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x68ae9d…
07-24 00:50:04	will warsh say ai or artificial intelligence during july press conference 20260720204109043	No	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xadea8e…
07-23 12:46:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x3e7833…
07-23 00:43:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xc65ae1…
07-22 12:42:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xc1a5f9…
07-22 00:42:34	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x415565…
07-21 12:42:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xcec0f8…
07-21 00:42:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x31b59e…
07-20 12:42:12	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x8e94ae…