Elementary-Cesspool — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$242.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$107.3K

Hit rate

52.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,659

lifetime

Volume

$3.70M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.39K

Open exposure

$326.8K

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 10-12 21:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

78% 56% -$96,314

Politics

22% 75% -$146,142

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes		+336,985	$209,852	94¢	$316.8K	+$106,913	10-12 21:49
US recession by end of 2026?	No		+10,848	$9,655	92¢	$10.0K	+$379	09-17 04:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	265	$831.2K	650,288	314,083	+336,205	Yes	+$96,323	07-29 18:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	585	$823.2K	867,545	793,245	+74,300	No	-$186,118	09-16 15:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	819	$416.9K	178,596	246,321	-67,725	Yes	-$962	06-06 14:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$324.0K	177,748	177,748	-0	No	+$31,185	06-01 09:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	58	$266.3K	290,393	99,361	+191,031	Yes	+$46,599	09-16 19:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	97	$209.9K	336,985	0	+336,985	open	—	10-12 21:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	264	$130.3K	216,238	216,238	+0	Yes	-$100,349	06-14 23:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	185	$106.7K	54,917	54,917	+0	Yes	+$2,431	04-26 01:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	92	$98.8K	297,257	0	+297,257	Yes	-$98,789	06-16 07:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$61.2K	72,928	0	+72,928	No	+$11,745	05-24 05:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	22	$60.2K	31,148	31,148	+0	No	+$1,903	05-23 02:38
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	12	$55.7K	90,590	0	+90,590	No	-$55,741	08-23 03:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$53.3K	29,000	29,000	+0	No	+$4,543	05-15 15:27
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	45	$49.9K	34,329	34,070	+259	No	-$5,911	06-13 21:02
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	12	$32.8K	19,222	19,222	+0	No	-$489	06-12 11:10
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	2	$28.1K	16,634	16,634	+0	Yes	+$5,123	06-11 20:50
fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 spread away 1pt5	4	$25.4K	22,971	22,971	+0	Qatar	-$1,882	06-13 20:38
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	3	$22.7K	16,617	16,617	+0	Yes	+$1,576	06-14 02:02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	34	$22.5K	12,526	12,526	+0	Yes	+$2,273	04-26 05:56
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	3	$13.2K	14,450	0	+14,450	No	+$1,204	05-10 00:43
US recession by end of 2026?	9	$9.7K	10,848	0	+10,848	open	—	09-17 04:03
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	54	$9.4K	5,746	5,746	+0	Yes	-$402	05-23 06:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$7.5K	7,860	0	+7,860	No	+$390	06-04 00:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	3	$7.1K	7,404	0	+7,404	No	+$327	05-10 13:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	24	$6.3K	6,886	0	+6,886	No	+$620	05-10 08:09
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$5.1K	6,000	0	+6,000	Yes	+$914	04-12 11:10
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	4	$4.4K	5,416	0	+5,416	No	+$994	03-20 05:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$4.1K	10,222	10,222	+0	No	-$663	06-14 13:25
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	7	$4.1K	6,225	5,000	+1,225	No	+$158	09-15 06:38
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	9	$3.9K	1,959	2,152	-193	Yes	+$84	05-10 00:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 21:49:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31,062	80¢	$24,850	0xbf8724…
10-09 17:54:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,806	84¢	$12,437	0xf59e90…
10-08 16:27:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23,616	84¢	$19,837	0x146be1…
10-08 13:25:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21,078	84¢	$17,706	0x939a23…
10-06 11:42:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,125	80¢	$2,500	0x3ee792…
10-06 11:32:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x6331d9…
10-06 10:45:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	263	80¢	$211	0x803aff…
10-06 10:20:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	80¢	$89	0x48d511…
10-06 09:46:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0xb4066b…
10-06 09:18:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x9d4d96…
10-06 08:32:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x68bdf2…
10-06 07:42:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0xd5b15e…
10-06 07:38:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$9	0x14eedd…
10-06 07:38:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$9	0x40c5f6…
10-06 07:37:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$0	0xbac02b…
10-06 07:37:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x5e40fa…
10-06 07:22:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x57d336…
10-06 07:22:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd2dfea…
10-06 07:22:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x67f07f…
10-06 07:16:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd9e39b…
10-06 07:16:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x146a10…
10-06 07:15:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x8afaa5…
10-06 07:15:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x297f13…
10-06 07:15:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x0c94b9…
10-06 07:15:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0xff3c07…
10-06 07:15:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x5fe0fe…
10-06 06:46:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xc4223a…
10-06 06:45:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$8	0xdc98ae…
10-06 06:37:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x1f26d7…
10-06 06:31:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x1dbf17…
10-06 06:28:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa500d0…
10-06 06:06:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x25f32f…
10-06 05:09:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	350	80¢	$280	0xb8c3e1…
10-06 05:08:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	380	80¢	$304	0xe44ae8…
10-06 05:04:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0xe10042…
10-06 05:02:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	360	80¢	$288	0xb1cb4e…
10-06 04:59:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	260	80¢	$208	0xdf61e4…
10-06 04:57:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	240	80¢	$192	0xa6937c…
10-06 04:31:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x47e69a…
10-06 04:31:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x204605…
10-06 04:25:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	80¢	$15	0x2ce7ce…
10-06 02:36:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0xe8bd34…
10-06 01:14:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0xc532b0…
10-06 01:09:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x031bcb…
10-06 01:08:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	155	80¢	$124	0xcda4f1…
10-05 23:52:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	48	80¢	$38	0xda67ef…
10-05 23:52:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	96	80¢	$77	0xa3d7c1…
10-05 23:52:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,201	80¢	$7,361	0x690123…
09-18 16:48:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11,167	44¢	$4,913	0x4e7a1d…
09-17 14:06:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,294	53¢	$2,276	0xa72ae9…
09-17 13:56:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$10	0x57e3ca…
09-17 13:33:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0xf206fd…
09-17 13:19:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9215c1…
09-17 13:17:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x3df864…
09-17 12:54:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	800	53¢	$424	0x475f9b…
09-17 12:51:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x83fc5a…
09-17 12:51:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x42010d…
09-17 12:51:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	450	53¢	$238	0x3bfac0…
09-17 12:44:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x316dc3…
09-17 12:29:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x28bba6…
09-17 12:14:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x30f52e…
09-17 12:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,362	53¢	$7,612	0x7b4389…
09-17 12:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$0	0x7376c3…
09-17 04:03:52	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	109	90¢	$98	0xfa185b…
09-17 04:03:52	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	156	90¢	$140	0x76e4f7…
09-17 04:03:51	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	491	90¢	$442	0xa09602…
09-17 04:03:49	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x6bd9a5…
09-17 04:03:48	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	491	90¢	$442	0xd15df5…
09-17 04:03:48	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x394030…
09-17 04:03:46	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5,696	90¢	$5,105	0x0712d6…
09-17 04:01:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60,100	55¢	$33,055	0xbe55f4…
09-17 01:38:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	55¢	$1,375	0x638a5a…
09-17 01:35:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,000	55¢	$22,000	0x7981d1…
09-17 01:30:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa95cbd…
09-17 01:15:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x8c1ff1…
09-17 01:15:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,000	55¢	$11,000	0x85bd31…
09-17 01:10:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x62aed4…
09-17 01:10:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x9748d6…
09-17 01:08:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0xcdaaae…
09-17 01:07:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0x1800a8…
09-17 01:07:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,362	54¢	$3,435	0x59db0e…
09-16 19:57:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,244	53¢	$659	0xd9938d…
09-16 19:57:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xa5d304…
09-16 19:57:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	650	53¢	$344	0x9311cf…
09-16 19:57:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	53¢	$265	0x15017f…
09-16 19:45:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x164db4…
09-16 19:44:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xf4d67d…
09-16 19:36:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17,011	51¢	$8,676	0xa5f788…
09-16 19:36:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0xd27178…
09-16 19:35:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	50¢	$5,000	0xa161a9…
09-16 19:26:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xf711a8…
09-16 19:23:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	50¢	$5,000	0xde0aa9…
09-16 19:21:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x8309ab…
09-16 19:18:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,694	51¢	$4,434	0x31b97b…
09-16 19:18:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	51¢	$29	0x9a5f7c…
09-16 19:18:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	51¢	$128	0x58d3d2…
09-16 19:18:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xa930ed…
09-16 19:18:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	223	51¢	$113	0x5cba4d…
09-16 19:18:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,302	51¢	$1,174	0x098726…
09-16 19:18:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xa4cc85…