Tall-Correspondence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$94

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

59.6%

Resolved

170

Trades

333

lifetime

Volume

$1.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-24 15:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Politics

45% 48% -$15

Other

34% 36% -$73

Crypto

21% 57% $0

Sports

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+4	$1	17¢	$1	$0	05-13 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	12	$112	136	136	+0	Yes	+$30	02-07 06:33
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	4	$54	47	47	+0	Yes	+$4	02-04 22:30
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	4	$43	29	29	+0	No	+$3	04-07 13:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$41	48	32	+15	No	-$19	06-15 04:27
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	4	$40	80	80	+0	No	+$8	03-25 22:22
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	1	$30	0	30	-30	No	$0	01-03 08:58
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	4	$27	27	27	+0	No	-$13	03-19 14:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$25	14	24	-10	No	+$5	06-22 09:27
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$25	527	14	+513	Yes	-$1	03-24 19:27
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$24	27	24	+4	No	-$13	01-26 05:24
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	4	$22	21	21	+0	No	+$2	04-02 05:43
nothing ever happens us strike edition	3	$22	27	10	+17	No	-$10	02-09 15:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	23	0	+23	No	+$3	05-17 19:24
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	6	$20	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	04-25 09:50
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$18	19	19	+0	Yes	+$6	03-06 15:07
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	3	$17	55	55	+0	No	-$3	02-04 22:32
us x venezuela military engagement by march 31 2026 264 352 211 137 861 788 622 336 869 453	1	$16	0	16	-16	Yes	$0	01-03 08:58
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	4	$16	13	13	+0	No	+$0	04-22 04:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$15	8	8	+0	No	+$1	04-25 09:50
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$15	8	8	+0	No	+$1	04-26 21:16
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	2	$15	18	18	+0	No	+$5	04-13 17:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	5	$14	33	33	+0	No	-$4	05-15 05:10
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	4	$14	17	7	+10	Yes	-$2	06-22 16:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 15:25 UTC	4	$13	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	03-22 15:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	04-26 21:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	05-16 14:05
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$12	7	7	+0	Yes	+$2	03-07 07:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	4	$12	14	14	+0	No	+$2	05-16 14:05
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$12	14	0	+14	No	-$12	10-24 15:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 07:35 UTC	2	$12	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	03-22 07:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 15:40:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0x1e4f1b…
10-23 22:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x32c95f…
10-23 22:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x0a1cd9…
07-09 18:11:52	Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x0b4e8d…
07-09 18:10:11	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x2f448b…
07-09 18:09:55	Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xc079e9…
07-09 18:09:38	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb23d2e…
07-09 18:09:29	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 btts	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x627752…
07-08 12:31:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0x842e02…
07-08 07:34:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 07:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x274a62…
07-08 07:34:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xd9a0e8…
07-08 07:30:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xdda0cc…
07-08 07:28:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9bd7da…
07-06 05:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x4ff74d…
07-06 05:43:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7454c5…
07-06 05:42:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xae9bf0…
07-06 05:41:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 05:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x38951f…
07-06 05:33:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x67636a…
07-06 05:32:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xc8d0dd…
07-06 05:31:01	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x20377d…
07-06 05:28:10	Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xefac71…
07-06 05:27:49	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x423c07…
07-03 12:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x76c79a…
07-03 12:58:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 12:55 UTC	Up	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0xb7cef8…
07-03 12:58:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 12:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x714c7c…
07-03 06:35:28	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x12eaae…
07-03 06:30:13	Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x175ea0…
07-03 06:29:41	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x413e64…
07-03 06:29:22	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xf97909…
07-03 06:26:34	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x87a91c…
07-03 06:25:32	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe35920…
07-03 06:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x9a8aa2…
06-23 08:53:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x319d82…
06-23 08:49:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x03f1a1…
06-23 08:49:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xa2014d…
06-23 08:48:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xb8befd…
06-23 08:44:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xc27428…
06-23 08:43:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x87f6f5…
06-23 08:39:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdf4cfa…
06-23 08:39:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 08:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1f6697…
06-22 16:44:56	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa4e038…
06-22 16:33:41	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb5d0ad…
06-22 16:33:32	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x8ab133…
06-22 16:32:07	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xb9444a…
06-22 16:29:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc27ac4…
06-22 16:25:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4d02ef…
06-22 16:25:28	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x47c2b4…
06-22 09:27:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x23b299…
06-16 21:48:50	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x745139…
06-16 21:48:43	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0x17d687…
06-16 21:48:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x1ee5f2…
06-16 17:19:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	75¢	$3	0x7866b5…
06-16 17:16:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xce03ec…
06-15 08:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x516e32…
06-15 04:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x9634e2…
06-15 04:27:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x6b8332…
06-15 04:27:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	32	35¢	$11	0xc7017a…
06-15 04:22:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf17e57…
06-03 05:11:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x720c27…
06-03 04:45:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x23e36b…
06-03 04:44:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x9525c0…
06-03 04:43:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xe09c67…
05-17 20:15:49	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x2022d6…
05-17 19:24:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xf7fc43…
05-16 14:06:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xe0c60e…
05-16 14:06:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x1bd54c…
05-16 14:05:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x97b32f…
05-16 14:05:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x24826c…
05-16 14:05:20	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	No	SELL	9	90¢	$9	0xc5ab43…
05-16 13:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x9de596…
05-15 08:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9957fa…
05-15 06:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	33¢	$1	0x638621…
05-15 06:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x0cd1d4…
05-15 05:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x1faa12…
05-15 05:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x515697…
05-15 05:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xa1ff5e…
05-15 05:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4364fd…
05-15 05:19:26	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4dc328…
05-15 05:10:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0xf72c5e…
05-13 12:01:09	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc8987a…
05-11 10:52:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2a9a05…
05-11 08:51:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x03baa4…
05-11 08:51:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x11ce63…
05-08 14:01:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x2f3ee3…
05-08 14:01:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xc3853c…
05-08 14:01:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x44a901…
05-08 10:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x5e90bc…
05-08 10:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x26327b…
05-07 19:23:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x1f02ac…
05-07 08:58:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x03b4a4…
05-07 08:58:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xb054c4…
05-06 12:26:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x27870c…
05-04 18:40:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4c9acb…
05-04 18:39:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xbf486e…
05-04 04:58:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x58ae2b…
05-04 04:19:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x89d210…
05-04 04:17:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xa5a402…
04-29 05:48:00	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0xa6eb9a…
04-28 04:43:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0xd4a795…
04-27 13:34:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xb995fe…