Deficient-Chafe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$429

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

Trades

361

lifetime

Volume

$21.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$38

1 position

First seen

2026-03-06

last 07-08 04:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% $-99

Other

33% 25% +$527

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No		-60	$-37	63¢	$-38	$-1	07-08 04:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	3	$3.2K	1,700	3,100	-1,400	open	—	03-30 18:33
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$3.1K	1,000	3,100	-2,100	open	—	03-30 02:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$2.5K	2,600	3,100	-500	open	—	05-31 15:12
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 16 22	4	$1.7K	1,683	1,683	+0	open	—	06-22 12:01
us strike on somalia by march 7 324	2	$1.6K	800	2,000	-1,200	open	—	03-10 07:52
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	7	$1.1K	633	1,033	-400	Yes	+$567	05-12 21:21
will catherine trautmann be the next mayor of strasbourg	3	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-23 01:49
will claude opus 4pt7 by anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500 969	3	$372	1,380	1,396	-17	open	—	04-17 16:33
nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	4	$371	500	500	+0	open	—	07-07 13:27
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	26	$273	1,589	689	+900	open	—	04-16 15:28
will khamenei tweet again by march 10	4	$248	3,200	0	+3,200	open	—	03-06 14:00
stt quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 17 2026 2pt57	3	$239	300	300	+0	open	—	04-16 18:45
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	5	$235	1,302	0	+1,302	open	—	04-14 12:48
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	11	$204	400	700	-300	open	—	03-09 19:35
will trump dance during national agriculture day event	9	$199	1,989	0	+1,989	open	—	03-27 17:19
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	2	$198	500	1,100	-600	open	—	03-08 21:36
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	17	$196	5,307	3,600	+1,707	open	—	04-16 15:28
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$184	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-23 21:23
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	10	$181	2,712	1,131	+1,581	open	—	07-02 16:03
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	2	$177	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-14 21:10
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	6	$174	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-17 00:46
trump announces new drug boat strike by march 14 2026	8	$167	2,119	0	+2,119	open	—	03-09 00:20
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	4	$166	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	03-31 12:46
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 17	14	$160	2,032	0	+2,032	open	—	03-17 22:31
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	3	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 22:52
will khamenei tweet again by march 7 216	5	$144	1,563	0	+1,563	open	—	03-06 13:59
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	4	$134	600	217	+383	open	—	03-08 21:10
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	4	$127	1,900	0	+1,900	open	—	04-21 20:01
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	6	$126	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	03-31 12:46
will jean luc moudenc be the next mayor of toulouse following the 2026 toulouse municipal election	3	$122	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	03-22 19:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 04:34:35	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	SELL	34	61¢	$21	0xbd4a4e…
07-07 13:27:07	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	341	63¢	$215	0x55deb7…
07-07 13:27:04	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	159	63¢	$100	0x16655a…
07-07 13:26:10	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x4b5357…
07-07 13:25:59	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x8e1e0d…
07-07 11:53:49	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	No	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0xbabb53…
07-06 07:51:08	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x78e573…
07-06 05:07:19	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x362ca7…
07-02 16:03:01	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xfa7e85…
07-02 15:49:25	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xa14b91…
07-02 15:32:16	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x85891b…
07-02 14:39:53	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	SELL	91	11¢	$10	0x9bcba1…
07-02 14:31:58	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	SELL	926	10¢	$93	0xe6e756…
07-02 12:31:43	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	BUY	302	1¢	$3	0xcd48a1…
07-02 12:31:34	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	BUY	223	1¢	$2	0x145d27…
07-02 12:31:22	Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?	No	BUY	1,187	1¢	$12	0xb9d64e…
07-02 03:40:47	will epic games valuation hit high 14b by december 31	Yes	SELL	40	24¢	$10	0xb771c3…
07-01 23:07:07	will epic games valuation hit high 14b by december 31	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x8bce18…
07-01 15:46:32	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x5183ae…
06-30 17:00:05	will openais valuation hit high 875b by june 30	No	BUY	800	2¢	$16	0x57f734…
06-29 14:01:46	SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	Yes	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x59aaec…
06-27 22:08:19	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	No	SELL	53	91¢	$48	0xd70339…
06-26 23:52:26	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x739a5e…
06-26 19:37:02	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	91¢	$14	0xd40eb9…
06-25 13:28:43	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0xa2b024…
06-24 17:24:47	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xa2b7c6…
06-24 14:15:52	will donald trump publicly insult zohran mamdani by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x32f1c9…
06-22 12:01:25	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 16 22	No	SELL	1,683	99¢	$1,667	0x61ff21…
06-22 12:00:47	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 16 22	No	BUY	683	1¢	$7	0xcf8abb…
06-21 06:31:13	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x72fc22…
06-21 03:45:37	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x98b147…
06-15 15:38:57	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x5787c6…
06-15 13:34:55	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	SELL	122	20¢	$24	0x59ac2a…
06-15 13:34:34	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	SELL	78	20¢	$15	0xc74ae6…
06-15 13:32:21	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xce72b7…
06-14 21:20:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x28f6f2…
06-14 21:18:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd1a67b…
06-13 01:06:07	us anti cartel operation outside of the us by june 30	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x2838f4…
06-13 01:05:25	us anti cartel operation outside of the us by june 30	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x35c687…
06-13 01:05:22	Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x654bb1…
06-10 11:33:24	will trump praise allah by june 30	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x255adb…
06-10 11:33:21	will trump praise allah again by june 30	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0xa79308…
06-10 11:33:00	will trump praise allah again by june 30	No	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x911530…
06-10 11:32:58	will trump praise allah again by june 30	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xd07e91…
05-31 15:12:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,100	80¢	$2,464	0xd9f7e9…
05-31 15:00:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0xd7aa66…
05-31 15:00:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x3a8368…
05-28 21:02:06	Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x294419…
05-28 17:42:19	Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xbd8457…
05-25 23:02:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	152	6¢	$9	0x157bc6…
05-25 23:02:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0xa851d5…
05-25 23:02:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xa8bcb5…
05-25 23:02:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0x9d445c…
05-25 23:02:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x508a19…
05-25 23:02:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x8a45c6…
05-25 23:02:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	52	6¢	$3	0x23edf2…
05-25 22:57:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	600	4¢	$24	0x164287…
05-25 22:56:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x226ae2…
05-22 17:01:31	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x00570b…
05-22 17:01:17	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x376fcd…
05-22 04:58:54	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x6548a6…
05-20 17:01:51	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x025294…
05-20 17:01:32	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x53a3ae…
05-20 17:01:02	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x46c781…
05-20 01:54:24	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	SELL	900	10¢	$90	0x146b87…
05-20 01:49:00	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0xe96cbf…
05-19 17:46:59	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	536	2¢	$11	0x88092e…
05-19 17:46:47	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xe66a1b…
05-19 17:42:42	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	329	28¢	$92	0x0d81dc…
05-19 17:28:44	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	915	1¢	$9	0xb7f10e…
05-19 12:36:31	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x0ef45c…
05-18 23:15:20	Will Grey Target by Johns sell for $30M or more?	Yes	BUY	336	10¢	$34	0xed6b9c…
05-16 20:41:44	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x46f8c9…
05-15 14:23:03	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x34ad2d…
05-15 14:07:39	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x436d67…
05-15 02:59:37	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	SELL	42	4¢	$2	0xfe92c2…
05-15 02:05:43	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x6813f0…
05-15 02:05:22	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xf19f14…
05-15 02:05:20	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x469c49…
05-14 21:42:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x5c311d…
05-14 11:59:53	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x4ed771…
05-12 21:21:03	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	532	99¢	$526	0x6a2792…
05-12 21:20:08	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	501	99¢	$496	0xe56b10…
05-12 21:19:12	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	132	6¢	$8	0x06b3fc…
05-12 21:19:02	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xac0f2d…
05-12 21:18:55	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	278	7¢	$19	0xc0752f…
05-12 21:18:55	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	122	7¢	$9	0x5cf0b6…
05-12 21:18:55	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x3fd999…
05-11 23:07:03	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	71	17¢	$12	0xd866ee…
05-11 07:48:37	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0x9d0928…
05-11 00:03:58	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xc8a9cc…
05-11 00:03:19	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xd3b69d…
05-11 00:03:19	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x33a6e0…
05-11 00:03:11	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x5bbcfc…
05-10 23:43:45	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xc97736…
05-10 18:45:45	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xc0ca5c…
05-08 23:02:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	800	2¢	$16	0x5aca44…
05-08 23:02:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0xe075aa…
05-07 19:08:28	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xe88ad6…
05-07 19:08:18	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa9426f…