Deficient-Chafe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$429

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

Trades

306

lifetime

Volume

$18.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 05-31 15:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

63% 0% $-99

Other

35% 25% +$527

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	3	$3.2K	1,700	3,100	-1,400	open	—	03-30 18:33
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$3.1K	1,000	3,100	-2,100	open	—	03-30 02:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$2.5K	2,600	3,100	-500	open	—	05-31 15:12
us strike on somalia by march 7 324	2	$1.6K	800	2,000	-1,200	open	—	03-10 07:52
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	7	$1.1K	633	1,033	-400	Yes	+$567	05-12 21:21
will catherine trautmann be the next mayor of strasbourg	3	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-23 01:49
will claude opus 4pt7 by anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500 969	3	$372	1,380	1,396	-17	open	—	04-17 16:33
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	26	$273	1,589	689	+900	open	—	04-16 15:28
will khamenei tweet again by march 10	4	$248	3,200	0	+3,200	open	—	03-06 14:00
stt quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 17 2026 2pt57	3	$239	300	300	+0	open	—	04-16 18:45
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	5	$235	1,302	0	+1,302	open	—	04-14 12:48
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	11	$204	400	700	-300	open	—	03-09 19:35
will trump dance during national agriculture day event	9	$199	1,989	0	+1,989	open	—	03-27 17:19
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	2	$198	500	1,100	-600	open	—	03-08 21:36
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	17	$196	5,307	3,600	+1,707	open	—	04-16 15:28
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$184	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-23 21:23
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	2	$177	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-14 21:10
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	6	$174	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-17 00:46
trump announces new drug boat strike by march 14 2026	8	$167	2,119	0	+2,119	open	—	03-09 00:20
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	4	$166	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	03-31 12:46
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 17	14	$160	2,032	0	+2,032	open	—	03-17 22:31
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	3	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 22:52
will khamenei tweet again by march 7 216	5	$144	1,563	0	+1,563	open	—	03-06 13:59
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	4	$134	600	217	+383	open	—	03-08 21:10
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	4	$127	1,900	0	+1,900	open	—	04-21 20:01
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	6	$126	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	03-31 12:46
will jean luc moudenc be the next mayor of toulouse following the 2026 toulouse municipal election	3	$122	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	03-22 19:54
Trump kiss by May 31?	2	$114	400	900	-500	open	—	05-20 01:54
will israel strike gaza on march 7 2026	3	$114	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	03-07 18:55
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	4	$113	915	915	+0	open	—	05-19 17:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 15:12:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,100	80¢	$2,464	0xd9f7e9…
05-31 15:00:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0xd7aa66…
05-31 15:00:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x3a8368…
05-28 21:02:06	Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x294419…
05-28 17:42:19	Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xbd8457…
05-25 23:02:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	152	6¢	$9	0x157bc6…
05-25 23:02:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0xa851d5…
05-25 23:02:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xa8bcb5…
05-25 23:02:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0x9d445c…
05-25 23:02:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x508a19…
05-25 23:02:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x8a45c6…
05-25 23:02:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	52	6¢	$3	0x23edf2…
05-25 22:57:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	600	4¢	$24	0x164287…
05-25 22:56:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x226ae2…
05-22 17:01:31	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x00570b…
05-22 17:01:17	Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x376fcd…
05-22 04:58:54	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x6548a6…
05-20 17:01:51	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x025294…
05-20 17:01:32	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x53a3ae…
05-20 17:01:02	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x46c781…
05-20 01:54:24	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	SELL	900	10¢	$90	0x146b87…
05-20 01:49:00	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0xe96cbf…
05-19 17:46:59	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	536	2¢	$11	0x88092e…
05-19 17:46:47	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xe66a1b…
05-19 17:42:42	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	329	28¢	$92	0x0d81dc…
05-19 17:28:44	Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	915	1¢	$9	0xb7f10e…
05-19 12:36:31	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x0ef45c…
05-18 23:15:20	Will Grey Target by Johns sell for $30M or more?	Yes	BUY	336	10¢	$34	0xed6b9c…
05-16 20:41:44	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x46f8c9…
05-15 14:23:03	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x34ad2d…
05-15 14:07:39	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x436d67…
05-15 02:59:37	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	SELL	42	4¢	$2	0xfe92c2…
05-15 02:05:43	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x6813f0…
05-15 02:05:22	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xf19f14…
05-15 02:05:20	Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x469c49…
05-14 21:42:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x5c311d…
05-14 11:59:53	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x4ed771…
05-12 21:21:03	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	532	99¢	$526	0x6a2792…
05-12 21:20:08	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	501	99¢	$496	0xe56b10…
05-12 21:19:12	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	132	6¢	$8	0x06b3fc…
05-12 21:19:02	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xac0f2d…
05-12 21:18:55	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	278	7¢	$19	0xc0752f…
05-12 21:18:55	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	122	7¢	$9	0x5cf0b6…
05-12 21:18:55	Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x3fd999…
05-11 23:07:03	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	71	17¢	$12	0xd866ee…
05-11 07:48:37	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0x9d0928…
05-11 00:03:58	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xc8a9cc…
05-11 00:03:19	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xd3b69d…
05-11 00:03:19	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x33a6e0…
05-11 00:03:11	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x5bbcfc…
05-10 23:43:45	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xc97736…
05-10 18:45:45	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xc0ca5c…
05-08 23:02:41	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	800	2¢	$16	0x5aca44…
05-08 23:02:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0xe075aa…
05-07 19:08:28	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xe88ad6…
05-07 19:08:18	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa9426f…
05-07 19:08:18	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa16a9e…
05-07 19:08:18	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x329a84…
05-07 19:08:16	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xec3e51…
05-07 19:08:16	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xda1132…
05-07 19:08:16	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x9e11db…
05-07 19:08:16	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8e7d9d…
05-07 19:08:16	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0x5286da…
05-07 19:08:16	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0x474b71…
05-07 19:08:14	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4cf9bf…
05-07 19:08:14	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x47a31d…
05-07 19:08:14	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	205	1¢	$2	0x342939…
05-07 19:07:51	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	BUY	400	6¢	$24	0x2e8ee4…
05-06 22:52:38	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	SELL	200	60¢	$119	0xc63007…
05-06 22:46:30	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xad817e…
05-06 22:46:18	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x0fe293…
05-06 19:17:17	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0x1997ba…
05-06 19:17:16	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	220	3¢	$7	0x1f7f43…
05-06 19:17:12	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	4¢	$24	0x1cec9f…
05-05 01:07:04	Will Alex Consani be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	65	13¢	$8	0x125601…
05-04 14:39:08	Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May 2026?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x88104e…
04-27 01:16:52	Will Trump say "Hottest" today?	No	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0x1ef7c6…
04-27 01:16:40	Will Trump say "Hottest" today?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x32a99b…
04-24 10:08:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0x9c8f83…
04-23 21:23:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	1,100	10¢	$110	0xb53967…
04-23 21:21:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	600	3¢	$18	0x9e20e4…
04-23 21:21:38	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x69a5b3…
04-23 21:21:34	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x7a032e…
04-22 11:30:26	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	282	1¢	$3	0xe9a83f…
04-22 11:30:26	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	55	1¢	$1	0x8df0b8…
04-22 11:30:26	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	980	1¢	$10	0x7b3190…
04-22 11:30:26	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	683	1¢	$7	0x66723f…
04-22 11:30:18	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	800	4¢	$32	0x1bc459…
04-22 11:30:16	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0xb82085…
04-22 10:56:34	FDA approves Sanofi’s Subcutaneous Sarclisa?	Yes	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0xac9460…
04-21 20:01:08	ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0xf80ec3…
04-21 20:01:04	ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	300	18¢	$54	0xa9f1a2…
04-21 20:01:04	ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	518	10¢	$52	0x4005dd…
04-21 20:01:04	ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	82	10¢	$8	0x313f88…
04-21 19:52:46	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,646	2¢	$33	0xde998f…
04-21 19:24:06	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x9affba…
04-21 19:23:10	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	3¢	$8	0x9ee03a…
04-21 19:22:42	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xe691bf…
04-21 19:18:46	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$20	0xb3e8ef…
04-20 04:06:50	Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	800	2¢	$17	0x0eaca1…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	54	$131.3K	10,933	05-31 17:25
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	50	$102.0K	7,930	05-31 15:28
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	49	$1.82M	4,441	06-01 01:54
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	48	$17.0K	3,683	05-07 13:31
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	48	$5.33K	899	05-30 00:15
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	47	$21.8K	2,631	05-31 02:34
Full-Bow 0x59fe…14fd	39	$6.20K	2,725	05-08 22:03
(anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8	39	$5.11K	307	05-21 06:02