Thrifty-Dungeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$56

Unrealized P&L

+$77

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved (90d)

900

Trades (90d)

2,616

4,271 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$117.9K

$316.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$407

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 11-06 04:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 159 days

Categories

Other

46% 58% +$940

Politics

34% 57% +$679

Crypto

11% 67% +$414

Tech

8% 76% +$435

Sports

1% 56% +$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	+175	$100	64¢	$112	+$12	11-06 03:55
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	No	+116	$75	90¢	$105	+$30	11-06 00:20
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	+203	$56	48¢	$98	+$42	11-05 23:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?	No	+65	$57	68¢	$44	-$13	11-06 03:58
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	+34	$25	82¢	$27	+$2	11-04 23:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of November 2 2026?	No	+21	$16	95¢	$20	+$4	11-05 02:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	46	$14.7K	8,732	8,732	+0	No	+$745	06-27 17:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	35	$6.0K	3,844	3,844	+0	No	+$453	05-26 22:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.1K	3,080	3,080	+0	Yes	+$581	06-14 21:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	24	$4.8K	2,740	2,740	+0	No	+$57	05-20 11:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	33	$4.3K	2,401	2,401	+0	No	+$116	05-24 22:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	17	$4.3K	2,824	2,824	+0	No	+$2	06-14 08:06
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	27	$4.1K	2,495	2,495	+0	Yes	+$117	08-11 11:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	35	$3.8K	2,080	2,080	+0	No	+$87	05-22 23:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	17	$3.8K	2,501	2,501	+0	No	+$1	07-02 11:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$3.4K	2,151	2,151	+0	No	+$130	05-28 09:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$3.1K	1,831	1,831	+0	No	+$74	07-14 09:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	13	$3.0K	2,118	2,118	+0	Yes	-$206	06-12 10:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$2.9K	1,815	1,815	+0	Yes	+$38	06-15 06:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$2.8K	2,172	2,172	+0	Yes	-$247	06-13 23:13
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	20	$2.4K	1,968	1,968	+0	No	-$89	08-19 23:16
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	29	$2.4K	1,781	1,781	+0	No	-$107	08-13 22:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	24	$2.4K	1,479	1,479	+0	No	-$38	05-28 09:44
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	15	$2.3K	1,480	1,480	+0	Yes	-$153	07-12 01:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	17	$2.3K	1,477	1,477	+0	Yes	+$75	08-14 01:35
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	27	$2.2K	1,286	1,286	+0	Yes	-$26	05-28 09:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	19	$2.2K	1,392	1,392	+0	No	+$32	08-07 23:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	14	$2.2K	1,266	1,266	+0	No	-$49	07-30 13:43
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	10	$2.2K	1,227	1,227	+0	Argentina	+$196	07-12 03:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$2.2K	1,236	1,236	+0	No	+$177	05-30 13:20
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	13	$2.2K	1,257	1,257	+0	Yes	+$93	06-18 05:20
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	8	$2.1K	1,143	1,143	+0	No	+$109	07-14 09:32
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$2.1K	1,095	1,095	+0	No	+$63	07-19 14:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	21	$1.9K	1,943	1,943	+0	No	+$478	05-23 09:35
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	19	$1.8K	1,060	1,060	+0	Yes	+$46	07-31 07:12
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?	13	$1.8K	1,693	490	+1,203	Yes	+$203	09-01 09:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 04:15:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in November?	No	SELL	33	80¢	$26	0xb96abe…
11-06 03:58:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?	No	SELL	65	65¢	$43	0xd10541…
11-06 03:55:39	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x5653ac…
11-06 03:39:37	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x118a66…
11-06 00:45:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xf39ada…
11-06 00:44:42	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xd1fe2a…
11-06 00:40:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	42¢	$17	0x9dc918…
11-06 00:20:43	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x46ce68…
11-06 00:20:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x8355ae…
11-05 23:41:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xd55c7f…
11-05 23:40:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xd9883a…
11-05 23:25:13	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0xb57585…
11-05 23:23:31	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x53dffa…
11-05 23:22:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	72¢	$45	0x2400df…
11-05 23:22:00	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $305 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	0¢	$0	0x7ca2ca…
11-05 23:21:48	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 in November?	Yes	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0xb31a65…
11-05 23:21:37	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $54 in November?	Yes	SELL	32	60¢	$19	0x5bef5d…
11-05 23:21:18	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in November?	Yes	SELL	47	38¢	$18	0x1e5230…
11-05 23:21:07	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 in November?	Yes	SELL	32	22¢	$7	0xf08831…
11-05 23:20:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in November?	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0xd470a4…
11-05 23:20:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in November?	Yes	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0xa90618…
11-05 23:20:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	38¢	$12	0xee17b3…
11-05 23:20:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x745fba…
11-05 23:19:48	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xee7b70…
11-05 23:19:18	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	27¢	$32	0x1ad7bc…
11-05 23:01:40	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $300 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0x64ca7d…
11-05 22:59:12	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0x5ed1a8…
11-05 22:58:52	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0x62b9de…
11-05 09:24:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	35	36¢	$12	0xa4a286…
11-05 09:22:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	36¢	$12	0xec2749…
11-05 09:18:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0xa73c3a…
11-05 09:16:52	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	89	7¢	$6	0x17b89e…
11-05 09:16:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xb49ce4…
11-05 09:09:42	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xfb47a2…
11-05 09:08:52	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	30¢	$12	0xa9a1ae…
11-05 09:07:45	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	74¢	$28	0xe60b23…
11-05 09:07:45	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xc53e23…
11-05 09:02:40	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x231e80…
11-05 09:01:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x3c878c…
11-05 05:49:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	14¢	$12	0xf4d974…
11-05 05:49:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	14¢	$12	0xaef5a8…
11-05 04:27:25	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of November 2 2026?	No	SELL	28	73¢	$20	0x2eeea4…
11-05 02:29:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of November 2 2026?	No	SELL	21	43¢	$9	0x2bec04…
11-05 02:23:51	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in November?	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$12	0x712b6a…
11-05 02:23:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in November?	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0x208373…
11-05 02:21:34	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 in November?	Yes	BUY	32	39¢	$12	0xdde79c…
11-05 02:21:28	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 in November?	Yes	BUY	47	27¢	$12	0xe6e92c…
11-05 02:16:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0x6c0529…
11-05 01:32:48	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in November?	Yes	BUY	23	55¢	$12	0xd0505b…
11-05 01:31:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x06711e…
11-05 01:23:24	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of November 2 2026?	No	SELL	28	66¢	$18	0x00c31a…
11-05 01:16:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	31¢	$17	0x9f9649…
11-05 01:15:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xa8e9f0…
11-05 01:15:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	33¢	$8	0xa04ccd…
11-05 01:12:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	100¢	$89	0xbca9c9…
11-05 01:07:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x957aa3…
11-05 00:37:01	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	16¢	$12	0x092dc0…
11-05 00:33:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in November?	No	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x8a13f7…
11-05 00:32:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x348994…
11-05 00:23:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	15¢	$6	0xd5d717…
11-05 00:18:37	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0x269846…
11-05 00:13:51	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in November?	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$12	0xf81d77…
11-05 00:13:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $54 in November?	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xc1c4ef…
11-04 23:52:13	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x9827e0…
11-04 23:52:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0x245ddc…
11-04 23:25:13	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xf24089…
11-04 23:24:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	16	79¢	$12	0x4e7185…
11-04 23:24:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	14	89¢	$12	0x0ccc3d…
11-04 23:23:57	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $305 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	15¢	$6	0x21d8bf…
11-04 23:23:45	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $300 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	37¢	$12	0xb8810d…
11-04 23:17:01	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x170639…
11-04 23:15:40	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xcde993…
11-04 23:15:28	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xc01a34…
11-04 23:06:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0x0b257b…
11-04 23:05:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0xb4d74b…
11-04 22:56:15	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	19	67¢	$12	0xb30e3e…
11-04 22:53:49	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $132.50 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0xc564ef…
11-04 22:53:21	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $142.50 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xb46d5a…
11-04 22:48:03	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x39432c…
11-04 22:45:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	22	58¢	$12	0xc54021…
11-04 22:40:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0xcf3d2e…
11-04 22:40:25	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xfe466f…
11-04 22:39:55	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x2a7b75…
11-04 22:38:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x532583…
11-04 22:35:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x06c478…
11-04 04:21:33	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	553	85¢	$472	0xd29452…
11-04 03:22:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	553	90¢	$500	0xaf65ab…
11-04 03:21:31	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	SELL	56	87¢	$48	0x57d7bd…
11-04 03:19:33	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	114	94¢	$108	0x8d71ec…
11-04 03:17:24	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	84	89¢	$75	0x370528…
11-04 03:16:16	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	298	85¢	$254	0x7d2cae…
11-04 03:15:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	SELL	37	91¢	$33	0x50005a…
11-04 03:14:30	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	33	92¢	$31	0x98b577…
11-04 03:12:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	298	84¢	$250	0xae139c…
11-04 03:10:27	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xaf14f1…
11-04 03:06:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	47¢	$8	0xeb940e…
11-04 03:06:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	21¢	$10	0xac204f…
11-04 03:05:49	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	91¢	$119	0x9b80e4…
11-04 03:05:36	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	60	94¢	$57	0x4c14ff…
11-04 03:05:12	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	79¢	$98	0x6c61c4…