Thrifty-Dungeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$80

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.8%

Resolved (90d)

891

Trades (90d)

2,576

4,186 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$119.7K

$314.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 11-04 04:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 157 days

Categories

Other

46% 58% +$904

Politics

34% 57% +$679

Crypto

11% 67% +$417

Tech

8% 76% +$435

Sports

1% 56% +$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	46	$14.7K	8,732	8,732	+0	No	+$745	06-27 17:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	35	$6.0K	3,844	3,844	+0	No	+$453	05-26 22:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.1K	3,080	3,080	+0	Yes	+$581	06-14 21:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	24	$4.8K	2,740	2,740	+0	No	+$57	05-20 11:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	33	$4.3K	2,401	2,401	+0	No	+$116	05-24 22:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	17	$4.3K	2,824	2,824	+0	No	+$2	06-14 08:06
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	27	$4.1K	2,495	2,495	+0	Yes	+$117	08-11 11:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	35	$3.8K	2,080	2,080	+0	No	+$87	05-22 23:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	17	$3.8K	2,501	2,501	+0	No	+$1	07-02 11:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$3.4K	2,151	2,151	+0	No	+$130	05-28 09:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$3.1K	1,831	1,831	+0	No	+$74	07-14 09:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	13	$3.0K	2,118	2,118	+0	Yes	-$206	06-12 10:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$2.9K	1,815	1,815	+0	Yes	+$38	06-15 06:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$2.8K	2,172	2,172	+0	Yes	-$247	06-13 23:13
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	20	$2.4K	1,968	1,968	+0	No	-$89	08-19 23:16
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	29	$2.4K	1,781	1,781	+0	No	-$107	08-13 22:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	24	$2.4K	1,479	1,479	+0	No	-$38	05-28 09:44
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	15	$2.3K	1,480	1,480	+0	Yes	-$153	07-12 01:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	17	$2.3K	1,477	1,477	+0	Yes	+$75	08-14 01:35
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	27	$2.2K	1,286	1,286	+0	Yes	-$26	05-28 09:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	19	$2.2K	1,392	1,392	+0	No	+$32	08-07 23:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	14	$2.2K	1,266	1,266	+0	No	-$49	07-30 13:43
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	10	$2.2K	1,227	1,227	+0	Argentina	+$196	07-12 03:33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$2.2K	1,236	1,236	+0	No	+$177	05-30 13:20
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	13	$2.2K	1,257	1,257	+0	Yes	+$93	06-18 05:20
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	8	$2.1K	1,143	1,143	+0	No	+$109	07-14 09:32
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$2.1K	1,095	1,095	+0	No	+$63	07-19 14:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	21	$1.9K	1,943	1,943	+0	No	+$478	05-23 09:35
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	19	$1.8K	1,060	1,060	+0	Yes	+$46	07-31 07:12
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?	13	$1.8K	1,693	490	+1,203	Yes	+$203	09-01 09:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 04:21:33	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	553	85¢	$472	0xd29452…
11-04 03:22:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	553	90¢	$500	0xaf65ab…
11-04 03:21:31	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	SELL	56	87¢	$48	0x57d7bd…
11-04 03:19:33	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	114	94¢	$108	0x8d71ec…
11-04 03:17:24	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	84	89¢	$75	0x370528…
11-04 03:16:16	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	298	85¢	$254	0x7d2cae…
11-04 03:15:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	SELL	37	91¢	$33	0x50005a…
11-04 03:14:30	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	33	92¢	$31	0x98b577…
11-04 03:12:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	298	84¢	$250	0xae139c…
11-04 03:10:27	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xaf14f1…
11-04 03:06:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	47¢	$8	0xeb940e…
11-04 03:06:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	21¢	$10	0xac204f…
11-04 03:05:49	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	91¢	$119	0x9b80e4…
11-04 03:05:36	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	60	94¢	$57	0x4c14ff…
11-04 03:05:12	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	79¢	$98	0x6c61c4…
11-04 02:57:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	70¢	$79	0xc16e11…
11-04 02:45:27	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	96¢	$121	0x1aadc7…
11-04 02:40:22	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xe35b27…
11-04 02:36:09	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	15	86¢	$12	0x45ce40…
11-04 02:33:52	Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	19	67¢	$12	0x3e1021…
11-04 02:33:15	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xf4c7fc…
11-04 02:32:42	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x167cd7…
11-04 02:31:58	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	96¢	$91	0x7d4edb…
11-04 02:20:42	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x9b9dc9…
11-04 02:16:49	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xf16ff4…
11-04 02:14:07	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	20¢	$17	0x358fb0…
11-04 02:12:28	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	98¢	$59	0xe7b042…
11-04 02:12:12	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	68	98¢	$66	0x0957a2…
11-04 02:07:52	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x7262f1…
11-04 02:05:36	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	74¢	$46	0x31fb7b…
11-04 01:43:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xd94cee…
11-04 01:43:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0x530820…
11-04 01:42:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0xc67c74…
11-04 01:41:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	75¢	$12	0x3c95ca…
11-04 01:41:13	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0x81ed65…
11-04 01:32:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,000 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	67¢	$12	0x6d605a…
11-04 01:31:34	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x2e33da…
11-04 01:31:06	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xdf6535…
11-04 01:30:09	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x4d00c9…
11-04 01:23:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	67	95¢	$63	0xbac64f…
11-04 01:19:01	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xa1a66c…
11-04 01:18:39	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x63e025…
11-04 01:18:22	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xcc0513…
11-04 01:10:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$12	0x80ecc9…
11-04 01:10:46	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	16	79¢	$12	0x69b596…
11-04 01:10:04	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$12	0x7b40fa…
11-04 00:51:21	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xae82c7…
11-04 00:50:55	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x45c4a2…
11-04 00:49:30	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xef8d24…
11-04 00:46:58	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xfb9fb7…
11-04 00:46:27	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x03a59e…
11-04 00:46:07	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	104	7¢	$7	0xae361c…
11-04 00:18:51	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xd321e0…
11-04 00:18:37	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xdbfcb8…
11-04 00:13:45	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	68	75¢	$51	0xfe5f6e…
11-03 23:51:03	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	104	12¢	$12	0xc29718…
11-03 23:49:27	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 November 2-8?	No	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0x43ac81…
11-03 23:49:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	18¢	$5	0x84c55b…
11-03 23:48:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0xa0bc76…
11-03 23:48:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	56	18¢	$10	0x7fbba5…
11-03 23:48:25	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	39	29¢	$11	0xaae4ff…
11-03 23:48:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	SELL	28	27¢	$7	0xdf6e25…
11-03 23:48:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	12¢	$5	0xaf1654…
11-03 09:20:24	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0x7c38b9…
11-03 09:15:18	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,050 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	19¢	$12	0xc602d7…
11-03 09:14:03	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$12	0xe2d23a…
11-03 09:11:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of November 2 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	27¢	$12	0xcd8a12…
11-03 09:10:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0x01e6c7…
11-03 09:07:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	39	22¢	$9	0xa6db38…
11-02 23:02:10	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	SELL	29	88¢	$26	0x15bffd…
11-02 23:01:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	58	82¢	$48	0x383138…
11-02 22:56:12	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xdd531f…
11-02 22:55:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Yes	BUY	28	45¢	$12	0xd835fe…
11-02 22:55:10	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 2-8?	No	BUY	48	26¢	$12	0xf084ea…
11-02 22:47:55	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	56	18¢	$10	0x77981d…
11-02 08:26:04	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x567db4…
11-02 03:11:06	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1d75f5…
11-02 03:10:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0x5b167f…
11-02 03:10:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x085708…
11-02 03:09:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xac527a…
11-02 00:25:30	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	SELL	115	28¢	$32	0xd2bf1b…
11-02 00:18:00	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x1177ea…
11-02 00:07:48	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xa5fc16…
11-01 23:59:51	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x7b568f…
11-01 23:57:10	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$189	0x6526c4…
11-01 23:56:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0x0056cb…
11-01 23:56:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0x317f13…
11-01 23:54:45	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x27a822…
11-01 23:53:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	24	27¢	$6	0x29534f…
11-01 04:35:39	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	27	13¢	$4	0x8b6dc9…
10-31 23:57:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x055914…
10-31 23:23:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x916ff1…
10-31 23:18:45	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	27	31¢	$8	0xf9a8b3…
10-31 23:18:28	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	27	16¢	$4	0x671d01…
10-31 23:17:37	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	56	22¢	$12	0xde7713…
10-31 23:17:09	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	27	16¢	$4	0x5243aa…
10-31 23:09:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xff91d4…
10-31 11:10:54	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0x5751af…
10-31 04:59:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xb7ef0e…
10-31 04:43:15	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$12	0x195f23…