Quarterly-Occurrence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.4%

Resolved

140

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$2.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-22 15:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

70% 94% +$0

Crypto

27% 97% -$2

Tech

2% 80% -$1

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Sports

1% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xrp dip to 0pt4 in march 2026	1	$102	102	0	+102	No	+$0	03-29 11:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$86	50	50	+0	No	+$0	05-26 11:36
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	2	$82	50	50	+0	No	-$1	05-31 02:17
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$62	50	12	+38	No	+$0	05-05 15:02
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	04-22 15:26
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	01-26 14:50
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 160 179	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	01-07 14:26
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	3	$46	38	38	+0	No	+$0	05-26 13:30
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	05-31 14:48
will bitcoin reach 75k on march 9	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	03-09 10:19
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 140 159	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	03-06 14:33
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-17 00:23
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-20 11:52
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-16 14:01
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	-$1	05-31 03:07
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-21 14:57
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-06 14:57
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or below on June 27?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	06-27 03:35
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 18?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	06-17 15:52
highest temperature in busan on april 21 2026 15corbelow	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	04-20 13:33
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-20 11:52
bitcoin above 56k on march 7	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	03-06 14:34
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-21 14:57
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-09 11:52
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-21 14:57
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on August 27?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-25 14:47
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-04 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 22?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-21 13:10
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 340 359	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	03-02 11:32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 28?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-27 03:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 15:09:36	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x75eb9d…
10-22 15:09:33	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8ae0c3…
10-02 15:48:45	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x46424b…
10-02 15:48:41	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xebe32e…
09-14 14:21:13	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x67e4a3…
09-14 14:21:07	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8d8ae2…
09-14 14:21:03	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc43294…
08-30 14:36:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 1?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe2e651…
08-30 14:36:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on September 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f96c0…
08-25 14:50:18	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2b0e51…
08-25 14:50:12	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x10de3c…
08-25 14:48:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb611af…
08-25 14:47:39	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfe833e…
08-06 14:58:17	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd9976b…
08-06 14:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xee00b2…
08-06 14:58:02	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa0d58f…
08-06 14:57:54	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8c8ccc…
08-06 14:57:48	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xfae544…
07-21 14:58:00	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x035e88…
07-21 14:57:55	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7c5d65…
07-21 14:57:37	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2d42e5…
07-21 14:57:31	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x91260f…
07-21 14:57:22	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x14bb34…
07-07 16:04:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on July 9?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x11ab29…
07-07 16:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5b2e9c…
07-07 16:04:10	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on July 8?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7194b6…
07-07 16:03:13	will bitcoin dip to 50k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbc87c1…
07-07 16:02:53	bitcoin above 56k on july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5c0249…
07-07 16:02:46	bitcoin above 56k on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9fcc2f…
06-27 03:35:35	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or below on June 27?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x45f502…
06-27 03:35:26	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 28?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfbdf85…
06-27 03:35:19	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 42°C on June 28?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x08b738…
06-27 03:35:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 43°C or higher on June 28?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x58f908…
06-27 03:34:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 28?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x591fe9…
06-17 15:52:05	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 18?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xcf29f1…
06-17 15:50:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 18?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd1fe36…
06-17 15:47:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x8abb61…
06-17 15:46:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x532482…
06-17 15:46:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe547ff…
06-17 15:43:19	bitcoin above 56k on june 18 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xee44b5…
05-31 14:48:21	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x5df87e…
05-31 03:08:47	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x77660e…
05-31 03:07:23	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x14ac2f…
05-31 03:07:16	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xee53b5…
05-31 03:07:01	Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x6f55f3…
05-31 03:06:33	Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x0e29db…
05-31 02:17:41	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x31278d…
05-31 02:12:54	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$41	0x8ba302…
05-26 13:30:49	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	26	61¢	$16	0x954795…
05-26 11:54:57	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	SELL	12	61¢	$7	0xc799ed…
05-26 11:54:03	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	38	61¢	$23	0x71cbdb…
05-26 11:36:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x33b4b7…
05-26 11:36:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x1f10e1…
05-26 11:33:55	Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x8f55f8…
05-26 11:33:20	Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x906e59…
05-26 11:31:23	Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x61c993…
05-26 11:30:55	Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xf7a44e…
05-26 11:17:23	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x17b96e…
05-22 10:49:50	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May 23?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa1cee0…
05-22 10:49:29	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdf7680…
05-22 10:49:17	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xaed344…
05-21 13:10:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 22?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x314a90…
05-21 13:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 22?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe26368…
05-20 11:52:29	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2791ec…
05-20 11:52:13	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1fa334…
05-20 11:52:06	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8f1bf2…
05-17 00:23:19	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbe3822…
05-15 03:02:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd2ad33…
05-15 03:02:21	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2d9584…
05-14 12:12:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4b6ba5…
05-14 12:12:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2e7135…
05-14 12:11:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x07e6a7…
05-14 12:11:35	Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd63085…
05-13 13:32:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd02ca9…
05-13 13:32:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 13?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x783019…
05-13 13:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 14?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa33a69…
05-13 13:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 14?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xa9e341…
05-11 15:12:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xccbb95…
05-11 15:12:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x31849f…
05-10 12:57:53	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 10?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x81a57f…
05-10 12:57:41	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 10?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc4b376…
05-10 12:56:03	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x67d1ba…
05-09 11:52:36	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x641f58…
05-08 12:53:19	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6a4942…
05-07 11:13:12	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 7?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7c39a9…
05-07 11:13:01	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 7?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa5ddd8…
05-06 12:48:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 6?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfef20b…
05-05 15:02:26	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x7fb0f0…
05-04 14:42:02	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x66f38c…
05-04 14:41:50	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9e7df0…
05-04 14:41:40	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9e6d02…
05-04 14:41:34	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfd8686…
04-24 14:54:16	highest temperature in london on april 24 2026 21c	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xef3b76…
04-24 14:54:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 25?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x2e4062…
04-22 15:27:30	highest temperature in madrid on april 22 2026 27c	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfcce14…
04-22 15:26:54	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xe72e3f…
04-20 13:34:38	highest temperature in tokyo on april 21 2026 19c	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6546a2…
04-20 13:34:18	highest temperature in tokyo on april 21 2026 18c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x62580e…
04-20 13:33:52	highest temperature in busan on april 21 2026 16c	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6dd3c6…
04-20 13:33:40	highest temperature in busan on april 21 2026 15corbelow	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x48efd5…