Well-Documented-Stiletto — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$7

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

143 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.52K

$1.85K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$62

1 position

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-04 17:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

44% 95% +$2

Politics

40% 88% +$5

Crypto

15% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No		+62	$61	100¢	$62	+$1	11-04 17:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$210	109	109	+0	No	+$3	10-29 13:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$119	74	50	+24	No	+$1	08-27 14:39
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$117	59	59	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:10
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$111	55	55	+0	No	+$0	08-14 12:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$96	48	48	+0	No	+$0	09-07 19:05
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$94	58	58	+0	No	+$0	10-18 01:33
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	5	$89	60	60	+0	No	+$2	11-04 00:26
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	3	$80	65	16	+49	No	+$1	09-30 19:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	09-29 22:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	09-30 19:08
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$61	62	0	+62	open	—	11-04 17:12
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$55	56	0	+56	No	+$1	08-15 07:00
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	08-14 19:35
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$55	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	08-05 00:02
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$52	52	0	+52	Yes	+$0	08-20 02:52
LAPTOP FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	09-10 18:41
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-22 11:51
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:02
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	09-29 01:34
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	07-31 15:25
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	06-27 04:38
will spy dip to 700 in june 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-29 17:32
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	10-03 04:54
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	08-27 07:51
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	10-28 02:27
will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	1	$16	17	0	+17	No	+$0	03-31 04:09
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	09-22 13:43
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	05-30 23:07
will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-29 09:06
will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	07-30 06:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 17:12:18	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x586979…
11-04 17:12:10	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x83d817…
11-04 00:26:55	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0x68482b…
11-04 00:26:54	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	27	77¢	$21	0x6664e6…
11-04 00:26:54	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0x2f335c…
11-03 14:42:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x7ad5c8…
11-03 14:42:21	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	39	73¢	$29	0x906cba…
10-29 13:19:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x281e73…
10-29 02:30:08	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0xff10ea…
10-28 03:01:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x6f3383…
10-28 02:27:41	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x1fab52…
10-27 18:04:05	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xbfb82f…
10-22 06:30:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0xfa8ed2…
10-18 01:33:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	58	81¢	$47	0x1d6fe7…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	58	81¢	$47	0xc76c91…
10-09 22:47:52	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x980c51…
10-04 21:10:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	59	99¢	$58	0x61c6f4…
10-03 18:06:59	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	59	99¢	$58	0xdc4889…
10-03 04:54:48	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$9	0x4518b7…
09-30 19:52:35	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x17fcd7…
09-30 19:08:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x05838a…
09-30 12:04:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x2088de…
09-30 01:42:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xec4dad…
09-29 22:23:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x7f3b77…
09-29 02:58:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x67738a…
09-29 01:34:00	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x4b69b7…
09-28 09:18:42	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc8b0a1…
09-27 18:51:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xa352ea…
09-22 13:43:31	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x3f1b6d…
09-22 11:51:28	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x2abc5e…
09-16 00:02:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0abad5…
09-11 20:20:10	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xed6480…
09-10 18:41:04	LAPTOP FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0xf1b067…
09-07 19:05:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x685cef…
09-06 01:24:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x48fe1c…
09-04 07:23:18	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x30805a…
08-29 04:50:39	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x276cea…
08-27 14:39:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0x8cabdb…
08-27 07:51:03	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4e25a4…
08-26 16:43:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0xcbaf99…
08-26 02:23:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf7737d…
08-24 06:25:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x24e213…
08-24 01:05:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3b3819…
08-22 18:40:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x8bc8ee…
08-20 11:25:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xeafb8d…
08-20 02:52:15	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0xef4c1a…
08-19 22:29:07	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb298fd…
08-17 03:32:04	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa9cc62…
08-16 12:48:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xa898e9…
08-16 12:48:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x9cf31b…
08-16 12:48:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x0efd53…
08-16 12:27:42	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xe36a6e…
08-16 12:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xb4ea53…
08-16 12:22:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xfcdb4b…
08-16 12:21:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0148be…
08-16 12:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa7ebb0…
08-15 07:00:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x805f0d…
08-14 19:35:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xbdb096…
08-14 12:22:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xa95899…
08-10 01:13:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x51ec16…
08-05 00:02:00	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0x570a2f…
07-31 15:25:11	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x380673…
07-31 03:12:59	will spy dip to 710 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xbe3772…
07-30 17:09:26	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x700b55…
07-30 06:34:03	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xfa007c…
07-30 06:04:00	will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2339bc…
07-28 19:59:58	will xagusd reach 66 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc87358…
07-28 13:25:01	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9dcbbc…
07-27 22:07:12	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x80de43…
07-27 15:00:52	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x52e555…
07-25 22:34:19	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x212803…
07-04 20:36:43	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb54888…
07-04 11:18:59	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6d1dde…
06-29 17:32:22	will spy dip to 700 in june 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x1e55b5…
06-29 09:06:43	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0xef1421…
06-27 04:38:07	Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x6a34ac…
05-30 23:07:44	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x6c8c23…
05-11 17:31:05	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x021abf…
05-11 09:57:46	Will Solana dip to $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x58604f…
05-10 21:30:17	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x466b26…
05-10 18:31:37	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdfe209…
05-10 14:28:34	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x88d719…
05-09 12:59:13	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x333dc4…
05-07 18:14:41	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xec2273…
05-07 17:50:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdf97b0…
05-06 04:53:52	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe2bdea…
05-05 13:31:12	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd716ee…
05-05 12:17:52	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa2713f…
04-21 07:29:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x54fa30…
04-19 12:04:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x111c48…
04-19 00:34:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1bd574…
04-18 02:32:02	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x97ff0d…
04-17 12:43:10	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x0e592c…
04-16 08:24:16	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2ee1f5…
04-14 12:13:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x079b91…
04-14 03:10:59	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xb34e53…
04-13 04:59:57	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5a1409…
04-06 11:38:15	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xea26cf…
04-05 06:48:13	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xc45d82…
03-31 04:09:09	will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	No	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0x2a48f2…