Rare-Average — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.01K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.57K

Hit rate

51.5%

Resolved

Trades

886

lifetime

Volume

$169.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$191

Open exposure

$6.20K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-04 08:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

48% 50% +$117

Politics

44% 75% +$7,136

Sports

6% 0% -$2,056

Tech

1% 75% +$138

Crypto

1% 33% -$322

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 151 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+6,239	$4,866	99¢	$6.2K	+$1,291	11-04 02:42
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	-1,000	-$32	2¢	$-22	+$9	11-04 06:19
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	-999	-$280	2¢	$-15	+$265	11-03 12:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	5	$36.4K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	11-04 08:31
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	36	$15.2K	9,467	7,500	+1,967	Yes	-$381	11-04 01:53
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$9.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$500	01-15 01:46
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	6	$9.3K	11,000	3,000	+8,000	Golden Knights	-$1,010	05-27 03:43
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	11	$9.3K	0	10,625	-10,625	Yes	-$1,363	06-25 18:50
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	6	$8.8K	10,567	0	+10,567	No	+$1,733	05-18 20:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	9	$5.3K	4,000	3,000	+1,000	Yes	+$1,000	04-09 14:49
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	2	$5.1K	5,000	1,994	+3,006	Yes	+$1,058	11-04 01:01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	105	$4.9K	6,239	0	+6,239	open	—	11-04 02:42
qqq up or down on april 20 2026	14	$3.1K	5,114	0	+5,114	Down	+$2,057	04-20 13:31
qqq up or down on april 15 2026	21	$2.5K	5,000	1,131	+3,869	Up	-$2,499	04-16 01:57
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	40	$2.5K	6,000	0	+6,000	Up	-$2,500	06-02 14:50
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	5	$2.3K	2,406	0	+2,406	Yes	+$96	05-20 20:09
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16?	39	$2.3K	5,035	0	+5,035	Down	+$2,771	06-16 10:58
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?	13	$2.2K	5,000	0	+5,000	Up	-$2,160	06-01 00:15
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28?	14	$2.1K	4,801	0	+4,801	Up	-$2,080	05-28 00:58
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?	3	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$75	05-25 23:29
qqq up or down on april 16 2026	11	$2.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	Up	-$2,000	04-16 00:47
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?	79	$1.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	Up	-$1,940	05-27 00:15
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	4	$1.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	11-03 15:39
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	46	$1.9K	1,743	1,769	-26	No	+$69	04-10 08:38
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	1	$1.8K	0	9,999	-9,999	No	+$1,800	11-03 12:00
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29?	61	$1.8K	4,500	0	+4,500	Up	-$1,755	05-29 09:19
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$1.5K	0	6,999	-6,999	Yes	+$1,540	11-03 12:01
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?	5	$1.5K	3,002	0	+3,002	Down	+$1,501	05-14 22:01
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	20	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$1,500	05-07 01:40
spx up or down on june 29 2026	1	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	+$1,500	06-26 20:37
spx up or down on august 5 2026	11	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	+$1,500	08-04 22:13
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?	30	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	-$1,500	05-23 18:20
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	2	$1.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	Down	+$1,075	05-24 04:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 08:31:00	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20,000	86¢	$17,200	0x45d160…
11-04 06:43:01	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17,708	96¢	$16,999	0x49072c…
11-04 06:42:57	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,472	96¢	$1,413	0x8aba78…
11-04 06:42:49	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0x58833f…
11-04 06:42:48	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	806	96¢	$774	0xe6d07c…
11-04 06:24:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?	Up	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x8140ad…
11-04 06:19:16	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	3¢	$32	0x019950…
11-04 02:42:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	35	78¢	$28	0x99c8a6…
11-04 02:41:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xeedfd4…
11-04 02:41:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x81829a…
11-04 02:41:31	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xf8122f…
11-04 02:41:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0x5fe18d…
11-04 02:40:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	363	78¢	$283	0xa04f29…
11-04 02:40:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	569	78¢	$444	0x535406…
11-04 02:40:49	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x0b09b0…
11-04 02:36:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xa11d90…
11-04 02:36:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	79	78¢	$62	0xb59f66…
11-04 02:36:37	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xe40a76…
11-04 02:36:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xd66094…
11-04 02:36:28	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xe87cbe…
11-04 02:36:19	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	42	78¢	$33	0x0e2888…
11-04 02:35:49	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	75	78¢	$59	0x97b53f…
11-04 02:35:37	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xc3fd15…
11-04 02:35:28	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	131	78¢	$102	0x0554f2…
11-04 02:30:48	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	82	78¢	$64	0x3f4964…
11-04 02:30:46	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	78	78¢	$61	0xd41b09…
11-04 02:30:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	59	78¢	$46	0xeff191…
11-04 02:30:25	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	99	78¢	$77	0xc01059…
11-04 02:30:22	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x44f3ff…
11-04 02:30:18	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$15	0x847095…
11-04 02:30:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x947485…
11-04 02:29:52	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0x88bc49…
11-04 02:29:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xf976c1…
11-04 02:29:48	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	73	78¢	$57	0xd6cc02…
11-04 02:29:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	73	78¢	$57	0x5e72f6…
11-04 02:29:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0x4c2fea…
11-04 02:29:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	73	78¢	$57	0x6756d7…
11-04 02:29:39	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0x7e6f2c…
11-04 02:20:15	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x7eafb5…
11-04 02:20:13	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x391176…
11-04 02:20:09	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	62	78¢	$48	0x75dae6…
11-04 02:20:09	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x20f15c…
11-04 02:20:04	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x909f3a…
11-04 02:20:01	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x1a2a8a…
11-04 02:20:00	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xaf1852…
11-04 02:19:58	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x3d8cb2…
11-04 02:19:58	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x08b989…
11-04 02:19:55	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x85cd12…
11-04 02:19:54	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0xf7562c…
11-04 02:19:49	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x2be965…
11-04 02:19:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xaba157…
11-04 02:19:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	49	78¢	$38	0xa665ac…
11-04 02:19:12	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x7af236…
11-04 02:19:06	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x6fc9f3…
11-04 02:19:03	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x501cdc…
11-04 02:18:52	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0x5cd4ba…
11-04 02:17:09	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x1cbf08…
11-04 02:17:01	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$24	0x5ec878…
11-04 02:16:48	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	152	78¢	$119	0x9c5a1a…
11-04 02:16:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xc0b9d1…
11-04 02:13:33	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x121373…
11-04 02:13:30	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	34	78¢	$27	0xaf8219…
11-04 02:13:30	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	25	78¢	$19	0x725578…
11-04 02:13:25	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	287	78¢	$224	0x498442…
11-04 02:12:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xe4b65e…
11-04 02:12:49	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0xb58680…
11-04 02:12:49	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xaa86c4…
11-04 02:12:46	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	56	78¢	$44	0x11ef21…
11-04 02:12:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xcd63d7…
11-04 02:12:45	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0xa81c37…
11-04 02:12:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	121	78¢	$94	0x58ed3b…
11-04 02:07:04	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	236	78¢	$184	0xdb1404…
11-04 02:07:04	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x6c97d3…
11-04 02:05:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xdb334f…
11-04 02:04:18	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0xd910e1…
11-04 02:04:18	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x1df35a…
11-04 02:04:13	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x5fa860…
11-04 02:03:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	184	78¢	$144	0x58b0d6…
11-04 02:03:31	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	47	78¢	$36	0x0c95a4…
11-04 02:03:28	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$7	0xa338cd…
11-04 02:02:58	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0xebe6e6…
11-04 02:02:57	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0x1b0055…
11-04 02:02:31	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	96	78¢	$75	0xfc9874…
11-04 02:02:00	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	131	78¢	$102	0x3bf10e…
11-04 02:01:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xf9d8b5…
11-04 02:01:31	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0x2e6408…
11-04 02:01:18	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$21	0xd42fc2…
11-04 02:01:15	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	34	78¢	$26	0x0824f8…
11-04 02:01:09	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x701312…
11-04 02:00:55	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	16	78¢	$13	0x15a480…
11-04 02:00:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$15	0x5b356c…
11-04 02:00:48	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	54	78¢	$42	0x6a39f2…
11-04 01:59:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0xb77e1d…
11-04 01:59:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x0892be…
11-04 01:59:24	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	52	78¢	$41	0x51f6ef…
11-04 01:59:19	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	151	78¢	$118	0xe4769e…
11-04 01:59:07	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0xc5598a…
11-04 01:59:07	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	231	78¢	$180	0x4f2755…
11-04 01:57:54	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	95	78¢	$74	0xfda9c9…
11-04 01:57:48	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0xc25811…