Spicy-Quince — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.60K

Unrealized P&L

+$144

Hit rate

72.5%

Resolved

399

Trades

2,895

lifetime

Volume

$50.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$427

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 13:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Other

84% 45% +$4,684

Pop-Culture

8% 72% +$538

Politics

6% 54% -$633

Tech

2% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+216	$43	85¢	$183	+$141	10-14 00:29
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+144	$140	100¢	$144	+$4	10-14 00:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+120	$100	82¢	$99	-$1	10-14 00:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tisza win at least 130 seats	13	$2.1K	1,570	1,570	+0	Yes	+$1,081	04-13 10:47
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?	21	$1.8K	2,576	214	+2,362	No	+$810	06-11 12:21
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04?	2	$1.2K	1,440	0	+1,440	No	+$222	09-04 16:27
will metas q1 headcount be above 77000	22	$1.2K	752	783	-31	Yes	+$323	04-29 22:28
will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the february decision	20	$1.1K	561	561	+0	Yes	+$7	02-17 20:28
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?	15	$1.1K	1,802	610	+1,192	Yes	-$203	05-10 16:13
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	10	$1.1K	590	590	+0	No	+$34	09-23 14:24
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May?	17	$900	1,677	0	+1,677	Yes	+$676	06-11 12:31
Will Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	5	$858	1,051	0	+1,051	No	+$103	10-07 09:48
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	8	$846	1,543	0	+1,543	No	+$337	10-10 16:10
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	10	$769	400	521	-121	Yes	+$0	06-08 15:55
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?	14	$758	1,218	152	+1,066	Yes	+$183	06-10 11:18
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?	1	$656	692	0	+692	open	—	10-09 09:34
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?	13	$650	935	399	+536	No	-$3	06-10 11:51
no change in swiss national bank policy rate after march meeting	8	$650	421	314	+108	Yes	+$22	03-16 12:24
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	8	$635	1,040	0	+1,040	No	-$635	10-11 12:23
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes?	6	$627	790	210	+580	Yes	+$173	09-19 00:30
Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on September 25?	9	$608	391	391	+0	Yes	+$159	09-25 16:03
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris FC end in a draw?	2	$604	806	0	+806	No	+$202	09-06 16:35
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	14	$601	1,557	0	+1,557	Yes	-$601	09-11 18:35
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	3	$598	308	300	+8	Yes	+$6	02-02 14:43
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	7	$592	323	323	+0	Yes	+$12	04-28 13:30
will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	12	$523	290	290	+0	Yes	+$26	03-25 23:16
Will Drake feature Lil Yachty on ICEMAN?	7	$522	678	0	+678	No	+$156	05-14 23:20
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?	6	$475	280	280	+0	Yes	+$85	03-25 14:12
Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	3	$471	400	260	+140	Yes	-$107	05-16 13:17
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$468	517	65	+452	Yes	+$43	04-20 15:00
lol t1 dk 2026 09 06	3	$462	796	0	+796	T1	+$334	09-05 23:15
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	3	$461	1,320	0	+1,320	No	-$461	09-10 10:05
no change in bank of englands interest rates after march 2026 meeting 453	16	$448	331	169	+162	Yes	+$23	03-18 20:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:18:54	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	240	30¢	$72	0x5a840a…
10-27 13:18:29	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	240	63¢	$151	0x5163d9…
10-27 13:16:17	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	152	58¢	$89	0xbf87c3…
10-27 13:15:03	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	152	38¢	$57	0xc45ba8…
10-14 10:23:05	Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	210	0¢	$0	0x4f2fcc…
10-14 10:22:46	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in September?	Yes	BUY	225	1¢	$3	0x28c1af…
10-14 10:22:25	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?	Yes	BUY	214	5¢	$11	0xaee43d…
10-14 00:29:07	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	216	20¢	$43	0xaa1975…
10-14 00:15:10	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	144	97¢	$140	0xb781ae…
10-14 00:14:12	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	No	BUY	70	79¢	$55	0x8bf036…
10-14 00:09:39	Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0xbcc1ba…
10-14 00:07:55	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	No	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0xfdaf7d…
10-14 00:06:06	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?	No	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0xa8dad5…
10-14 00:04:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xae51d5…
10-13 10:39:35	Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 16?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xa406a9…
10-13 00:05:18	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	464	1¢	$4	0x064edf…
10-13 00:03:35	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x5d5e4e…
10-12 22:19:03	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x301dd6…
10-11 15:25:00	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	158	37¢	$58	0xa720e3…
10-11 15:24:46	Will PPI YoY be 5.8% in September?	Yes	BUY	158	9¢	$15	0x15dd51…
10-11 12:23:12	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	55¢	$79	0x4d02a3…
10-11 12:23:04	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	31¢	$44	0x6b7bac…
10-11 12:22:25	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	110	88¢	$97	0x4c0514…
10-10 16:19:43	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x362db7…
10-10 16:10:46	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	720	57¢	$407	0x33ebeb…
10-10 16:08:00	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	360	46¢	$166	0x6414f8…
10-10 15:21:01	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	161	1¢	$1	0x232999…
10-10 15:20:52	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	161	2¢	$4	0xcc4960…
10-10 15:20:18	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	161	7¢	$11	0xe02195…
10-10 12:45:27	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	Yes	BUY	11	31¢	$4	0xb017b3…
10-09 09:34:28	Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	692	95¢	$656	0xd56602…
10-08 23:36:57	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	230	32¢	$74	0x0f9e92…
10-08 23:36:42	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	230	54¢	$124	0x45b92f…
10-07 16:47:10	Will the US lose more than 25k jobs in October?	No	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0xbd7c32…
10-07 16:37:46	Will Big Walk win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xc392f9…
10-07 09:48:32	Will David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	222	97¢	$216	0xacca6b…
10-07 09:48:11	Will Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	941	88¢	$825	0xeab982…
10-07 08:51:36	Will Krzysztof Matyjaszewski win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x25e900…
10-06 22:54:15	Will Eric Jacobsen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x9aece6…
10-06 22:15:09	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x92c030…
10-06 22:12:38	Will Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x7ff429…
10-06 21:19:14	Will Robert Barro win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x884040…
10-06 19:44:15	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xdf58e2…
10-06 19:44:15	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x0c5974…
10-06 19:43:45	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x615be0…
10-06 19:04:30	Will David Allara win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	SELL	57	85¢	$49	0x274fd5…
10-06 19:02:02	Will Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xb2a3db…
10-06 18:42:03	Will David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xfcba61…
10-06 17:10:33	Will David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xc19aae…
10-06 17:02:26	Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xc25340…
10-06 16:56:54	Will David Allara win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xc51282…
10-06 16:56:35	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x0e7696…
10-06 16:41:11	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x8767c6…
10-06 16:36:36	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0x47fd1e…
10-06 16:36:00	Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0xf0712e…
10-06 16:34:47	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x27d49e…
10-06 16:34:09	will sidney winter win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x61a4b6…
10-06 16:33:32	will hal varian win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0xf18b9d…
10-06 16:33:30	will javier milei win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x504dcd…
10-06 16:32:59	will lawrence katz win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x5e11de…
10-06 16:32:21	will michael woodford win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xaad989…
10-06 16:31:30	will david autor win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xf02aae…
10-06 16:29:38	Will David Autor win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa44ac6…
10-06 16:29:32	Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x62aa62…
10-06 16:29:15	Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xdac2a4…
10-06 16:29:06	Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0866b9…
10-06 16:28:57	Will Sidney Winter win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x97ccba…
10-06 16:28:33	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8a677f…
10-06 16:26:51	Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	12¢	$4	0x9cc02d…
10-06 16:25:38	Will Demian Reidel win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	31	88¢	$27	0x117042…
10-06 16:20:05	will david autor win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xfcc364…
10-06 16:19:23	will michael woodford win the nobel prize in economics in 2026	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xad823e…
10-06 16:18:24	Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xf0fdec…
10-06 16:17:33	Will Hal Varian win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x7da285…
10-06 16:17:00	Will Sidney Winter win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x49fb44…
10-06 16:01:05	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x0bea23…
10-06 15:55:44	Will Peter G. Schultz win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xadebd4…
10-06 15:33:14	Will David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xcee95b…
10-06 15:31:14	Will David Allara win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x2d7e12…
10-06 15:23:17	Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xb6ae6c…
10-06 15:23:17	Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0xb34e38…
10-06 15:23:17	Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	31¢	$6	0x06ceb6…
10-06 15:21:12	Will David Liu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd3458e…
10-06 15:19:54	Will Stephen Buchwald win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0xf426e8…
10-06 15:19:54	Will Stephen Buchwald win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$19	0x64ff90…
10-06 15:19:45	Will Harry Gray win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x245fbf…
10-06 15:19:35	Will Shankar Balasubramanian win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xd13af9…
10-06 14:52:08	Will Jin-Quan Yu win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x4a4fc3…
10-06 14:39:27	Will Henry Snaith win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xd55528…
10-06 14:17:35	Will Eric Jacobsen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x3bdcf0…
10-06 13:48:00	Will Stephen Lippard win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x66c5fe…
10-06 13:26:15	Will Krzysztof Matyjaszewski win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x339297…
10-06 13:10:54	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xefd3ee…
10-06 13:09:00	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	6¢	$3	0x14d4c0…
10-06 13:05:27	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x4def70…
10-06 13:04:40	Will Kazunari Domen win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xbd4b2e…
10-06 13:01:42	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	6¢	$4	0x78c48e…
10-06 13:01:12	Will JoAnne Stubbe win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe38595…
10-06 12:41:01	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xb86cc2…
10-06 12:40:43	Will Hiroaki Suga win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x53a936…