Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?
No won
Total volume
$19,004
Trades
712
Unique wallets
171
Liquidity
$0
End date
2026-10-13
First seen
2026-10-06
last 10-12 09:59
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-11.7¢
(top1%: 9% YES on $6.2K
vs crowd: 20% YES on $14.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 43 | $1.5K | $8.1K | $6.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 36 | $765 | $2.4K | $1.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 39 | $561 | $773 | $212 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 53 | $162 | $354 | $192 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 24 | $530 | $5.6K | $5.1K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 20 | $112 | $707 | $595 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 12 | $71 | $164 | $93 |
| Median | 15 | $19 | $170 | $151 |
| Below median | 34 | $89 | $156 | $67 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 10 | $184 | $92 | +$92 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 17 | $384 | $1.0K | $642 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 39 | $1.6K | $3.6K | $2.1K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability 0xb1ca…1705 | No | +1,486 | $1,159 | $1,159 | 1 | 10-07 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xb7d5…0789 | Yes | +1,112 | $221 | $247 | 16 | 10-12 09:47 |
| Grounded-Depression 0x35bb…009b | No | +986 | $598 | $3,670 | 24 | 10-07 12:44 |
| Vengeful-Netsuke 0x5cd5…ac33 | No | +799 | $643 | $643 | 2 | 10-10 09:34 |
| Splendid-Harald 0x0952…a44b | Yes | +700 | $147 | $147 | 1 | 10-09 09:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | +613 | $470 | $470 | 15 | 10-09 09:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | Yes | +612 | $149 | $149 | 14 | 10-09 09:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | +500 | $106 | $106 | 5 | 10-11 23:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +500 | $399 | $399 | 5 | 10-11 23:44 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +474 | $369 | $416 | 20 | 10-12 03:39 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +437 | $154 | $473 | 35 | 10-12 03:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x42bc…63e3 | No | +432 | $424 | $424 | 1 | 10-12 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | +372 | $77 | $77 | 4 | 10-10 11:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | No | +372 | $296 | $300 | 5 | 10-10 11:12 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +315 | $63 | $63 | 5 | 10-12 03:59 |
| Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | Yes | +315 | $64 | $64 | 5 | 10-12 06:06 |
| Weird-Freedom 0xeca0…e8f8 | No | +300 | $243 | $243 | 16 | 10-09 07:12 |
| Creative-Diction 0xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | +299 | $73 | $73 | 5 | 10-10 10:06 |
| Smart-Homework 0x580a…a236 | Yes | +286 | $60 | $60 | 2 | 10-10 11:12 |
| Eager-Politician 0x67af…61ee | Yes | +284 | $56 | $56 | 18 | 10-12 09:33 |
| Spicy-Quince 0xfe1a…6bcc | Yes | +270 | $64 | $64 | 4 | 10-06 15:23 |
| Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | +263 | $211 | $211 | 10 | 10-12 09:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | +234 | $53 | $53 | 4 | 10-07 16:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x3988…4082 | Yes | +214 | $45 | $45 | 1 | 10-10 10:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | +209 | $56 | $67 | 9 | 10-12 03:03 |
| Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | +200 | $154 | $960 | 17 | 10-10 09:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xcb01…7dfb | Yes | +180 | $35 | $35 | 9 | 10-07 21:58 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +163 | $38 | $39 | 11 | 10-12 03:45 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | +157 | $121 | $123 | 10 | 10-12 03:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x67ba…fafe | No | +154 | $130 | $130 | 1 | 10-12 09:48 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | +150 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-12 09:48 |
| Arid-Cinema 0x73d2…f9b7 | No | +150 | $117 | $117 | 8 | 10-12 02:29 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | Yes | +144 | $29 | $29 | 2 | 10-07 08:32 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +143 | $111 | $111 | 5 | 10-08 08:32 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +143 | $83 | $405 | 11 | 10-12 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +142 | $21 | $21 | 7 | 10-12 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x7afc…ea2c | No | +141 | $141 | $141 | 2 | 10-12 09:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xbec4…b075 | No | +121 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 10-07 15:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +120 | $93 | $93 | 6 | 10-09 08:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +120 | $28 | $28 | 6 | 10-09 08:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +118 | $94 | $94 | 7 | 10-12 05:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +110 | $25 | $25 | 3 | 10-12 03:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +110 | $86 | $86 | 3 | 10-12 03:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +104 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 10-12 09:48 |
| Adventurous-Font 0xf2da…9385 | Yes | +100 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 10-06 16:15 |
| Happy-Proliferation 0x5caa…4831 | Yes | +100 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 10-07 03:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x13de…fd91 | No | +100 | $80 | $159 | 5 | 10-09 15:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x13de…fd91 | Yes | +96 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 10-10 09:34 |
| Infatuated-Nun 0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | +90 | $18 | $30 | 3 | 10-11 03:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xd322…8503 | Yes | +87 | $17 | $17 | 5 | 10-11 13:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xd322…8503 | No | +85 | $69 | $69 | 3 | 10-10 09:41 |
| Creative-Hurt 0x91f7…932c | No | +84 | $62 | $63 | 5 | 10-10 07:59 |
| Creative-Hurt 0x91f7…932c | Yes | +84 | $25 | $25 | 4 | 10-06 17:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +84 | $66 | $68 | 9 | 10-11 19:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +84 | $18 | $20 | 8 | 10-12 03:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +80 | $61 | $117 | 7 | 10-06 17:52 |
| Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | No | +80 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 10-06 11:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | No | +73 | $57 | $57 | 3 | 10-06 23:00 |
| Worried-Dinghy 0x8482…3f7a | No | +71 | $56 | $56 | 2 | 10-11 19:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x5231…ca59 | No | +67 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 10-07 02:21 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 09:59:32 | (anonymous) 0x7afc…ea2c | No | BUY | 91 | 100¢ | $91 | 0xf264fe… |
| 10-12 09:59:32 | Ready-Progression 0xa9ac…c5d1 | No | SELL | 91 | 100¢ | $91 | 0xf264fe… |
| 10-12 09:49:59 | (anonymous) 0x7afc…ea2c | No | BUY | 50 | 100¢ | $50 | 0xf0728c… |
| 10-12 09:49:59 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf0728c… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 43 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | (anonymous) 0x42bc…63e3 | No | BUY | 432 | 98¢ | $424 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | BUY | 56 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 2¢ | $3 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:29 | Far-Off-Entirety 0xf3f7…8c35 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf07af6… |
| 10-12 09:48:17 | (anonymous) 0xbcc5…fd56 | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0x7b9bfa… |
| 10-12 09:48:17 | (anonymous) 0x601f…bb82 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x7b9bfa… |
| 10-12 09:48:17 | (anonymous) 0x0dba…2db9 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x7b9bfa… |
| 10-12 09:48:14 | (anonymous) 0xa98c…5173 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 15¢ | $8 | 0x6311f3… |
| 10-12 09:48:14 | (anonymous) 0x67ba…fafe | No | BUY | 154 | 84¢ | $130 | 0x6311f3… |
| 10-12 09:48:14 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 84 | 16¢ | $13 | 0x6311f3… |
| 10-12 09:48:14 | Oily-Hammer 0xb778…0bcb | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x6311f3… |
| 10-12 09:47:47 | (anonymous) 0xa98c…5173 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 17¢ | $4 | 0xadcb2d… |
| 10-12 09:47:47 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 25 | 82¢ | $20 | 0x8c0c8f… |
| 10-12 09:47:47 | (anonymous) 0xb7d5…0789 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x8c0c8f… |
| 10-12 09:47:47 | (anonymous) 0xb7d5…0789 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 17¢ | $4 | 0xadcb2d… |
| 10-12 09:46:46 | Gruesome-Cassava 0xddff…b4e1 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x70ecbd… |
| 10-12 09:46:46 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0x70ecbd… |
| 10-12 09:42:52 | (anonymous) 0x2c03…0d7e | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0xc4fa55… |
| 10-12 09:42:52 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0xc4fa55… |
| 10-12 09:42:50 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 3 | 80¢ | $3 | 0x58dfd8… |
| 10-12 09:42:50 | (anonymous) 0xb7d5…0789 | Yes | BUY | 95 | 20¢ | $19 | 0x58dfd8… |
| 10-12 09:40:59 | (anonymous) 0x2c03…0d7e | No | BUY | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0x9848b0… |
| 10-12 09:40:59 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0x9848b0… |
| 10-12 09:33:17 | Eager-Politician 0x67af…61ee | Yes | BUY | 15 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x51ce42… |
| 10-12 09:33:17 | (anonymous) 0x6b25…7a69 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 18¢ | $0 | 0x51ce42… |
| 10-12 09:33:17 | Simple-Violation 0x88b6…3cff | No | SELL | 76 | 82¢ | $63 | 0x51ce42… |
| 10-12 09:33:17 | Ready-Progression 0xa9ac…c5d1 | No | BUY | 91 | 82¢ | $75 | 0x51ce42… |
| 10-12 09:27:25 | Simple-Violation 0x88b6…3cff | No | SELL | 61 | 82¢ | $50 | 0x97c165… |
| 10-12 09:27:25 | (anonymous) 0xa2e8…e82a | No | BUY | 61 | 82¢ | $50 | 0x97c165… |
| 10-12 09:01:33 | (anonymous) 0xa768…eb1b | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x84b004… |
| 10-12 09:01:33 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 25 | 80¢ | $20 | 0x84b004… |
| 10-12 09:00:22 | Simple-Violation 0x88b6…3cff | No | SELL | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0xbf8e97… |
| 10-12 09:00:22 | (anonymous) 0x67c8…4841 | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0xbf8e97… |
| 10-12 07:50:12 | Eager-Politician 0x67af…61ee | Yes | BUY | 11 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xbc75ff… |
| 10-12 07:50:12 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 11 | 80¢ | $9 | 0xbc75ff… |
| 10-12 07:49:18 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 6 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x43a16b… |
| 10-12 07:49:18 | Noxious-Auditorium 0x546a…1988 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x43a16b… |
| 10-12 07:41:29 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 31 | 80¢ | $25 | 0xeb051b… |
| 10-12 07:41:29 | (anonymous) 0x29de…1ec7 | No | SELL | 31 | 80¢ | $25 | 0xeb051b… |
| 10-12 07:36:08 | (anonymous) 0x29de…1ec7 | No | BUY | 31 | 81¢ | $25 | 0xb40203… |
| 10-12 07:36:08 | (anonymous) 0x6b25…7a69 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xb40203… |
| 10-12 06:14:21 | (anonymous) 0x6b25…7a69 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 20¢ | $3 | 0x01142c… |
| 10-12 06:14:21 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 15 | 80¢ | $12 | 0x01142c… |
| 10-12 06:06:32 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x31a3c1… |
| 10-12 06:06:32 | Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x31a3c1… |
| 10-12 05:48:35 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 13 | 81¢ | $11 | 0x9ae669… |
| 10-12 05:48:35 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 60 | 80¢ | $48 | 0x9ae669… |
| 10-12 05:48:35 | (anonymous) 0xb7d5…0789 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 20¢ | $15 | 0x9ae669… |
| 10-12 05:48:24 | Rex416 0x9a3f…914a | No | BUY | 11 | 80¢ | $9 | 0x725086… |
| 10-12 05:48:24 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 19 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x725086… |
| 10-12 05:48:24 | Eager-Politician 0x67af…61ee | Yes | BUY | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0x725086… |
| 10-12 05:36:05 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0xbaa3e7… |
| 10-12 05:36:05 | (anonymous) 0x8772…22f9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xbaa3e7… |
| 10-12 05:04:00 | (anonymous) 0x978b…2add | No | SELL | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x5ad5a2… |
| 10-12 05:04:00 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x5ad5a2… |
| 10-12 03:59:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x3d6b69… |
| 10-12 03:59:24 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x3d6b69… |
| 10-12 03:59:24 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 19 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x3d6b69… |
| 10-12 03:45:56 | Simple-Violation 0x88b6…3cff | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x068b39… |
| 10-12 03:45:56 | (anonymous) 0x3c7b…6863 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x068b39… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 21 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xdc44dd… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | Multicolored-Soil 0xab2d…b1aa | No | SELL | 39 | 77¢ | $30 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | Worried-Dinghy 0x8482…3f7a | Yes | BUY | 21 | 22¢ | $5 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | BUY | 21 | 80¢ | $17 | 0xdc44dd… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x9209…a393 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | Simple-Violation 0x88b6…3cff | No | BUY | 139 | 78¢ | $109 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 23¢ | $2 | 0x9508d8… |
| 10-12 03:39:32 | Multicolored-Soil 0xab2d…b1aa | No | SELL | 77 | 77¢ | $59 | 0xba940c… |
| 10-12 03:39:32 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 77 | 77¢ | $59 | 0xba940c… |
| 10-12 03:35:00 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 25¢ | $8 | 0xb5112f… |
| 10-12 03:35:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 31 | 75¢ | $23 | 0xb5112f… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | BUY | 80 | 76¢ | $61 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Multicolored-Soil 0xab2d…b1aa | No | SELL | 199 | 76¢ | $152 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 30 | 76¢ | $23 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 25¢ | $8 | 0xc2ee96… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 25¢ | $8 | 0xc2ee96… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 25 | 77¢ | $20 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 24 | 76¢ | $18 | 0x2867ba… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x356caa… |
| 10-12 03:34:57 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x356caa… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xfd1a4d… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x8253f1… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | (anonymous) 0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xfd1a4d… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | (anonymous) 0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x8253f1… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 23¢ | $6 | 0xfd1a4d… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x8253f1… |
| 10-12 03:03:36 | Prudent-Wheel 0xfa68…ba5d | Yes | BUY | 50 | 23¢ | $12 | 0xfd1a4d… |
| 10-12 03:00:53 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 21¢ | $0 | 0x2c1ccd… |