Realized P&L
+$3.32K
Unrealized P&L
-$828
Hit rate
82.1%
Resolved
30
Trades
14,157
lifetime
Volume
$2.11M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$149
Open exposure
$14.9K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Politics
58% 36% +$402
Other
35% 53% +$3,202
Crypto
4% 0% $-282
Sports
2%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 241 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -9,957 $-9,340 96¢ $-9549 $-209 05-29 17:34
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No -3,677 $-3,051 90¢ $-3291 $-240 06-23 22:00
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No -700 $-533 100¢ $-699 $-166 06-07 18:13
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +1,627 $672 17¢ $273 $-398 06-30 17:25
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No -260 $-337 100¢ $-259 +$77 06-12 03:44
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,908 $300 12¢ $238 $-62 06-30 19:01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes -800 $-207 26¢ $-208 $-1 05-30 19:13
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +598 $159 26¢ $158 $-1 06-30 19:41
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes -500 $-115 11¢ $-52 +$62 05-28 09:21
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes +2,838 $132 $45 $-86 06-29 12:05
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +70 $39 59¢ $41 +$3 06-29 02:29
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes -2,808 $-237 $-25 +$212 06-19 07:27
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes +5,797 $32 $17 $-14 06-30 12:50
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes +6,667 $131 $17 $-114 06-25 11:11
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes -3,037 $-127 $-11 +$116 06-08 07:56
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes -324 $62 $-10 $-72 06-13 23:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +3,247 $651 $8 $-642 06-22 11:10
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +5,000 $130 $8 $-122 06-30 12:18
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes -2,958 $-89 $-6 +$83 05-28 12:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes +5,000 $10 $5 $-5 06-27 22:38
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? No +307 $30 $4 $-26 06-24 16:15
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes -1,115 $-106 $-3 +$103 06-13 23:46
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes +200 $11 $1 $-9 06-14 16:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +267 $-777 $1 +$779 06-29 14:05
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +322 $36 $1 $-35 06-19 12:39
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No +346 $60 $1 $-60 06-27 22:14