Realized P&L
+$32.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.10K
Hit rate
55.5%
Resolved
2,075
Trades
26,041
lifetime
Volume
$4.59M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$176
Open exposure
$14.8K
21 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 10:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 285 days
Categories
Politics
48% 35% +$32,226
Other
46% 35% -$8,935
Sports
3% 38% +$824
Crypto
2% 32% +$6,298
Tech
1% 43% +$2,413
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$18
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 350 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +7,500 $5,378 74¢ $5.5K +$135 10-27 11:25
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -2,600 -$2,290 97¢ $-2518 -$229 05-04 15:28
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +2,500 $2,064 82¢ $2.1K -$2 10-26 15:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,000 $1,206 82¢ $1.6K +$444 10-25 21:04
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +1,255 $1,152 92¢ $1.1K -$4 10-27 09:44
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +1,314 $907 74¢ $966 +$59 10-26 22:56
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +750 $622 84¢ $626 +$4 10-27 10:16
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No +200 $140 87¢ $173 +$33 10-23 12:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +1,000 $113 16¢ $155 +$42 10-10 15:18
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +21 $16 88¢ $19 +$3 10-15 21:34
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +21 $5 12¢ $3 -$2 10-17 19:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +0 $99 94¢ $0 -$98 10-26 20:03
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +0 -$128 98¢ $0 +$128 05-29 17:34
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +0 $3 87¢ $0 -$3 10-26 23:00
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +0 -$5 81¢ $0 +$5 05-27 17:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October? No +0 -$43 92¢ $0 +$43 10-26 15:10
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +0 $110 17¢ $0 -$110 06-26 19:25
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +0 -$536 94¢ $0 +$536 09-25 12:22
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +0 -$151 96¢ $0 +$151 07-29 04:36
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 Yes +0 $30 3¢ $0 -$30 07-17 20:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +0 $0 4¢ $0 $0 10-25 17:15