Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$116

Unrealized P&L

+$25

Hit rate

62.4%

Resolved

237

Trades

479

lifetime

Volume

$21.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

$182

8 positions

First seen

2026-07-05

last 10-22 13:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

42% 78% +$555

Politics

29% 63% -$152

Crypto

18% 48% -$297

Sports

6% 62% -$41

Tech

5% 70% +$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	+86	$76	91¢	$79	+$3	10-03 22:51
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	+61	$54	96¢	$59	+$5	10-19 08:24
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+46	$34	95¢	$44	+$9	10-22 13:31
Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?	Yes	+1	-$2	97¢	$1	+$3	10-18 13:16
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+0	$0	94¢	$0	+$1	10-18 13:15
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	+0	-$4	96¢	$0	+$4	10-18 13:15
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+1	$0	4¢	$0	+$0	10-18 13:15
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+0	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	10-18 13:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$412	416	305	+111	No	+$77	09-11 14:45
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	13	$376	313	230	+83	Yes	-$13	07-24 20:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	4	$364	240	240	+0	No	+$5	07-30 21:03
bitcoin above 62k on july 13 2026	6	$345	225	170	+55	Yes	+$20	07-13 15:01
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?	4	$313	219	219	+0	Yes	-$36	10-12 01:27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$303	305	305	+0	Yes	+$14	07-30 21:08
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	4	$291	187	187	+0	open	—	09-12 12:14
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	4	$284	187	187	+0	No	-$23	09-01 13:14
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	3	$274	151	151	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	4	$254	177	177	+0	Yes	-$15	07-23 19:55
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	4	$239	154	154	+0	No	+$42	07-15 12:43
bitcoin above 64k on july 16 2026	4	$232	148	138	+10	Yes	-$16	07-16 13:49
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	3	$222	198	118	+80	No	+$3	08-30 03:34
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	4	$218	124	124	+0	No	+$19	09-30 02:26
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	3	$209	154	98	+56	Yes	-$2	09-09 00:45
Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?	2	$204	108	107	+1	open	—	10-18 13:15
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	2	$198	126	126	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	2	$198	131	131	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$197	108	108	+0	Yes	+$18	09-30 02:26
will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	4	$191	106	106	+0	No	+$12	07-30 21:03
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	2	$190	105	105	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	2	$188	111	111	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	2	$188	125	125	+0	No	-$12	10-08 16:50
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	2	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	4	$186	195	26	+169	Yes	+$28	07-14 19:07
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$185	111	111	+0	Yes	+$37	07-23 19:39
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	2	$184	99	99	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	2	$184	108	108	+0	No	+$15	07-30 21:03
Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?	3	$182	96	95	+1	open	—	10-18 13:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$182	109	109	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 13:31:38	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	46	75¢	$34	0x27bf54…
10-21 22:26:51	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x3887d4…
10-20 17:27:15	Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xc7393b…
10-20 11:24:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0xdae90b…
10-19 15:28:02	Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	86¢	$53	0xf85003…
10-19 08:24:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	61	88¢	$54	0x80fd41…
10-18 13:27:41	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$101	0x25e1a7…
10-18 13:16:17	Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xb2e239…
10-18 13:16:05	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xccfa89…
10-18 13:16:03	Will the Democratic Party win the OR-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xf2829e…
10-18 13:16:03	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xc61c18…
10-18 13:16:02	Will Levante UD win on 2026-09-16?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0xb9ed44…
10-18 13:16:00	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	No	SELL	16	83¢	$13	0xf891b5…
10-18 13:16:00	Will Levante UD vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x6afa54…
10-18 13:15:59	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0xcb4b75…
10-18 13:15:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	18	92¢	$17	0x18b607…
10-18 13:15:57	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0x84cc01…
10-18 13:15:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	38	81¢	$31	0x9222ef…
10-18 13:15:56	Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	31	95¢	$30	0x61ea84…
10-18 13:15:54	Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xe19e29…
10-18 13:15:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	4¢	$3	0x39bb13…
10-18 13:15:53	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	77	90¢	$70	0x09b411…
10-18 13:15:51	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	96	86¢	$83	0xa48138…
10-18 13:15:51	Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	78	97¢	$76	0x985466…
10-18 13:15:50	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	97	90¢	$87	0xb2273c…
10-18 13:15:50	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	SELL	99	95¢	$94	0x03d70c…
10-18 13:15:48	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	105	96¢	$100	0xb85886…
10-18 13:15:48	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x753faf…
10-18 13:15:47	Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?	Yes	SELL	107	96¢	$103	0x46a5ad…
10-18 13:15:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	109	85¢	$93	0xa9552f…
10-18 13:15:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	93¢	$103	0x8d8a88…
10-18 13:15:44	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	126	78¢	$99	0xa9ca24…
10-18 13:15:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	131	75¢	$98	0x5ac347…
10-18 13:15:42	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	151	91¢	$137	0x1f2b07…
10-18 13:15:41	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	174	4¢	$6	0xe7e1d6…
10-18 13:15:41	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	169	5¢	$8	0x83bab0…
10-17 22:04:47	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x49cda2…
10-17 17:58:20	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0xc1267b…
10-17 17:58:20	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0x9772a9…
10-17 17:58:20	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x649cf4…
10-17 10:56:18	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	112	4¢	$5	0xc1cfc3…
10-17 10:56:18	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	119	3¢	$4	0x9f90ba…
10-17 10:56:18	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	101	91¢	$92	0x00e4f9…
10-17 06:06:32	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	61	91¢	$56	0x4d2b1d…
10-13 20:01:42	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x6df6ad…
10-13 18:59:51	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xee12cd…
10-13 15:08:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	32	69¢	$22	0xcccef4…
10-13 15:02:47	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x4c97b0…
10-12 17:58:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0xe088a2…
10-12 15:00:36	Will the Republican Party win the WI-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	96	94¢	$90	0xac3770…
10-12 01:27:03	Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?	Yes	SELL	131	58¢	$76	0x6ada6e…
10-11 07:00:00	Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x070f2b…
10-09 22:57:31	Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x0a70bc…
10-09 21:56:43	Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x423e89…
10-09 16:57:20	Will the Democratic Party win the OR-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x164fcc…
10-09 12:05:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xd8ab94…
10-09 08:06:04	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	92¢	$89	0x46b4d2…
10-09 07:05:51	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x801e95…
10-09 04:40:01	Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?	Yes	SELL	88	71¢	$62	0x0dbe11…
10-09 01:07:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x4f56bc…
10-09 00:09:47	Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 October 5-11?	Yes	SELL	112	34¢	$38	0xec5784…
10-08 22:49:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?	Yes	SELL	126	36¢	$45	0xbcacb1…
10-08 19:02:54	Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	88	85¢	$75	0xf3e54d…
10-08 18:04:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 5-11?	Yes	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0xc3dd81…
10-08 17:04:59	Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 October 5-11?	Yes	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x79a84a…
10-08 16:50:30	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	125	70¢	$88	0x24571e…
10-08 14:14:05	Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11?	Yes	SELL	111	69¢	$77	0x482bc7…
10-08 13:58:29	Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11?	Yes	BUY	111	81¢	$90	0x12c3ef…
10-07 17:58:39	Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$101	0xaebdde…
10-07 17:58:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	101	94¢	$95	0x8121de…
10-07 16:58:02	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x795f00…
10-07 15:01:08	Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	BUY	121	82¢	$99	0xc80863…
10-07 13:29:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x63a716…
10-07 09:28:29	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	77	90¢	$69	0x1f5923…
10-07 08:31:36	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x64f8d8…
10-07 03:29:24	Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0xb2700c…
10-06 22:32:51	Will Spirit Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xa1ba35…
10-06 21:27:41	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	105	85¢	$89	0xcf3342…
10-06 19:26:27	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0x2aa737…
10-05 01:52:44	Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xb7b9c6…
10-04 21:04:05	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	SELL	123	45¢	$55	0x2c0867…
10-04 09:53:11	Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?	Bolsonaro	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x597c0c…
10-04 08:52:10	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0x7512d7…
10-04 03:53:25	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x7fcdba…
10-03 22:51:38	Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	BUY	86	88¢	$76	0xafd600…
10-02 05:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 2?	Up	BUY	89	89¢	$79	0x7a2b85…
10-02 04:06:42	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	29	84¢	$24	0xbd4ec0…
10-02 04:06:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	76¢	$84	0x60b323…
10-02 00:06:12	Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	94	90¢	$85	0x405525…
10-01 22:04:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	109	82¢	$89	0x4867d1…
10-01 19:03:44	Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	96	93¢	$89	0x997127…
10-01 18:02:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Yes	BUY	102	88¢	$90	0xcb61fd…
10-01 15:03:06	Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xf72705…
09-30 18:20:12	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	97	78¢	$76	0x11500c…
09-30 08:00:41	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xe37908…
09-30 06:02:21	Lula participates in debate before first round?	No	BUY	16	89¢	$15	0xcdb9d9…
09-30 02:26:59	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	No	SELL	107	99¢	$106	0x65b57e…
09-30 02:26:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xa2c2c2…
09-27 07:00:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	85	88¢	$75	0x8a747c…
09-26 16:57:33	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	96	83¢	$80	0xde4643…