Arid-Cinema — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.50K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.8%

Resolved

Trades

13,388

lifetime

Volume

$3.09M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$231

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 11:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

53% 65% $-1,535

Other

43% 48% $-967

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 144 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	135	$80.2K	42,400	42,400	+0	open	—	04-19 17:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	86	$65.9K	34,500	34,500	+0	open	—	05-05 18:59
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	7	$60.4K	30,840	30,840	+0	open	—	02-27 04:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	159	$43.4K	27,200	27,200	+0	open	—	04-24 11:56
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	42	$37.1K	19,224	19,224	+0	open	—	02-24 16:42
Iran leadership change by April 30?	87	$35.8K	20,774	20,774	+0	open	—	04-26 13:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	99	$32.3K	20,700	20,700	+0	Yes	+$195	05-04 19:27
Netanyahu out by April 30?	55	$30.7K	16,000	16,000	+0	open	—	03-28 19:11
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	62	$29.3K	16,200	16,200	+0	open	—	03-27 09:36
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	54	$27.6K	15,600	15,600	+0	open	—	04-07 04:54
will axiom be accused of insider trading	29	$27.0K	31,279	22,920	+8,359	open	—	02-26 13:41
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	27	$26.7K	14,600	14,600	+0	open	—	04-09 19:21
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	23	$26.5K	13,713	13,713	+0	open	—	03-16 21:52
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	87	$25.0K	14,775	14,775	+0	open	—	04-23 22:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	44	$23.7K	16,800	16,800	+0	open	—	04-28 13:36
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	87	$23.6K	13,910	13,910	+0	open	—	04-18 10:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	65	$23.2K	15,500	13,200	+2,300	open	—	04-20 21:46
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	138	$23.1K	16,964	16,964	+0	open	—	05-06 19:00
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$23.1K	12,000	12,000	+0	open	—	03-20 16:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	73	$22.4K	16,800	16,800	+0	open	—	04-08 05:57
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	62	$21.8K	11,361	13,000	-1,639	open	—	04-13 23:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	81	$21.1K	12,525	11,966	+560	open	—	05-20 19:09
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	60	$20.4K	10,600	10,600	+0	open	—	03-27 06:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	38	$20.3K	14,800	12,800	+2,000	open	—	06-01 03:05
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	16	$19.8K	10,064	10,064	+0	open	—	02-20 03:40
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	41	$19.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-28 16:25
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	99	$19.1K	12,337	12,337	+0	open	—	04-21 05:39
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	99	$18.4K	10,310	10,310	+0	open	—	04-27 22:52
will trump visit china by march 31	25	$18.2K	9,390	9,390	+0	open	—	03-22 09:43
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	28	$17.3K	8,841	8,841	+0	open	—	03-12 12:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 14:38:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0xde72e1…
08-10 14:18:19	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	No	BUY	320	91¢	$291	0xff40b5…
08-10 14:17:01	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	SELL	61	8¢	$5	0x94ce6d…
08-10 13:47:10	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xaca2bd…
08-10 11:30:18	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	BUY	248	6¢	$15	0x887ec2…
08-10 09:24:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xcf1859…
08-10 09:03:43	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	172	89¢	$153	0xc64e25…
08-10 06:37:54	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x1958c4…
08-10 06:30:19	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x88b628…
08-10 06:24:13	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	16	76¢	$13	0x093eb7…
08-10 03:58:21	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	SELL	31	88¢	$27	0xb0a587…
08-10 03:11:43	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x94e8e7…
08-10 03:10:27	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0x3906e5…
08-10 03:09:06	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x99a77b…
08-10 00:43:27	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	160	76¢	$122	0x68fd47…
08-10 00:38:57	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0x8aebbd…
08-10 00:32:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	320	86¢	$275	0x9bd33b…
08-09 23:29:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x6d0b45…
08-09 23:17:24	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	No	SELL	46	100¢	$46	0xf80fdf…
08-09 22:30:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	No	BUY	160	72¢	$115	0x7999f5…
08-09 22:24:04	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0xd3ea3f…
08-09 22:11:13	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	No	SELL	38	100¢	$37	0x0e03ee…
08-09 21:52:34	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x562db8…
08-09 21:51:55	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0xec69f1…
08-09 21:28:12	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x068dea…
08-09 21:25:04	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	SELL	190	50¢	$96	0x1464ae…
08-09 21:24:22	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0xbb4ab4…
08-09 21:22:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x4616cf…
08-09 21:10:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x8f6633…
08-09 21:08:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0x3f71f1…
08-09 20:50:55	will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xe6f654…
08-09 20:50:45	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xa8bcf9…
08-09 20:50:22	will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x66c5f7…
08-09 20:35:55	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x7bf663…
08-09 20:33:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x80fbce…
08-09 20:16:18	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0xaaf13e…
08-09 20:14:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	320	88¢	$282	0x836933…
08-09 19:58:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	95	86¢	$82	0x1ad54f…
08-09 19:58:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x4a9516…
08-09 19:26:51	will warsh be out as fed chair by june 30 2027 20260723173503768	No	BUY	111	89¢	$99	0x5bd098…
08-09 19:00:48	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	160	90¢	$144	0xe1c60f…
08-09 18:07:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	320	85¢	$272	0x3d4908…
08-09 17:30:24	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x825587…
08-09 16:34:58	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x144c7a…
08-09 16:24:10	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	138	76¢	$105	0x70c118…
08-09 15:14:18	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	400	80¢	$320	0x74c344…
08-09 15:10:54	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	320	89¢	$285	0x037c01…
08-09 15:03:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	320	90¢	$288	0x382ee1…
08-09 13:26:03	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	BUY	160	75¢	$120	0x56074b…
08-09 12:35:12	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x92a79f…
08-09 12:26:06	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x7bbb75…
08-09 11:57:51	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0xaf396b…
08-09 11:06:43	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x99c6e7…
08-09 05:40:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	320	87¢	$278	0x26f6d4…
08-09 01:14:46	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	39	77¢	$30	0xba1867…
08-09 01:14:45	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	52	77¢	$40	0xdcd478…
08-09 01:14:45	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x7b5282…
08-09 01:14:43	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x934861…
08-09 01:14:42	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	15	77¢	$11	0x36a0bd…
08-09 01:14:40	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0xd18c34…
08-09 00:49:49	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x5d4f53…
08-08 23:15:40	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	160	46¢	$74	0xb86f42…
08-08 22:35:27	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	160	18¢	$29	0xb089bc…
08-08 08:15:25	will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x24a3e5…
08-08 03:30:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0x093e45…
08-07 17:42:01	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	16	66¢	$10	0x3d771f…
08-07 17:42:01	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x32afeb…
08-07 17:42:00	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x9a0973…
08-07 17:42:00	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	SELL	137	66¢	$90	0x939d69…
08-07 13:02:21	will israel participate in eurovision 2027	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x127828…
08-07 10:58:30	will russia capture shevchenko by october 31 20260805162837389	Yes	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x6e2404…
08-07 09:42:36	will russia capture shevchenko by october 31 20260805162837389	Yes	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0xd9907b…
08-07 06:00:58	will joao felix attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803204947260	No	SELL	160	48¢	$77	0xd4309a…
08-07 04:19:01	will giorgio chiellini attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630268	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x1b2423…
08-07 02:10:13	will drake attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630272	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xe2a248…
08-07 01:13:40	will karim benzema attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630270	No	SELL	160	86¢	$138	0xadb71b…
08-06 23:41:48	will movistar koi make a roster change by december 20260805205516462	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x2f2ccd…
08-06 23:08:29	will carlos alcaraz play in the uptspt open 20260805193315485	Yes	BUY	94	63¢	$60	0x03b031…
08-06 22:33:30	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	Yes	BUY	160	85¢	$136	0x71b272…
08-06 22:02:15	will russia capture shevchenko by october 31 20260805162837389	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xe18c71…
08-06 21:53:36	will g2 esports make a roster change by december 20260805205516459	No	BUY	60	72¢	$43	0x24298e…
08-06 21:42:41	will russia capture shevchenko by october 31 20260805162837389	Yes	BUY	21	69¢	$15	0x2deb5d…
08-06 21:08:26	will carlos alcaraz play in the uptspt open 20260805193315485	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$3	0xec4f7e…
08-06 20:56:41	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	SELL	160	84¢	$135	0x9345d6…
08-06 20:16:14	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xbee1bf…
08-06 20:14:17	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	160	33¢	$53	0xb10df5…
08-06 19:28:45	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x93e130…
08-06 13:24:50	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	138	87¢	$120	0x36529a…
08-06 13:24:15	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	182	87¢	$159	0x29b398…
08-06 11:57:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	220	63¢	$138	0x37f558…
08-06 10:00:42	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	BUY	160	76¢	$122	0x2089f3…
08-06 07:01:11	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by december 31	Yes	SELL	160	44¢	$70	0xfe9c99…
08-06 06:57:45	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x9bc9ae…
08-06 06:31:50	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	29	66¢	$19	0x222670…
08-06 05:27:33	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xa77204…
08-06 04:55:14	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x93a390…
08-06 04:54:00	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0x699a67…
08-06 04:53:17	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x925cf7…
08-06 01:18:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	Yes	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x3e9509…
08-06 01:18:51	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	Yes	BUY	27	77¢	$20	0x241143…