Arid-Cinema 0x73d225…34f9b7
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$54.3K
Unrealized P&L
-$724
Hit rate
70.8%
Resolved
3,946
Trades
34,508
lifetime
Volume
$3.95M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$114
Open exposure
$21.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 11:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 280 days
Categories
Politics
48% 63% -$5,841
Other
48% 61% -$45,718
Tech
2% 49% -$2,181
Crypto
1% 52% -$1,065
Sports
1% 61% +$841
Pop-Culture
0% 61% -$307
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 214 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +7,380 $6,686 92¢ $6.8K +$67 10-18 06:35
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +4,500 $3,770 86¢ $3.9K +$122 10-22 20:42
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -2,411 -$2,073 97¢ $-2335 -$262 04-28 13:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -2,400 -$1,776 94¢ $-2268 -$492 06-18 03:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,471 $2,075 82¢ $2.0K -$61 10-15 11:51
US recession by end of 2026? No -1,889 -$1,416 93¢ $-1756 -$340 04-29 12:36
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -862 -$457 78¢ $-668 -$211 10-05 15:17
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +400 $332 94¢ $374 +$42 09-16 19:32
us x china agree to pace the ai frontier in 2026 No +200 $184 95¢ $189 +$5 09-14 22:35
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No -184 -$147 94¢ $-172 -$25 05-01 14:04
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +177 $218 68¢ $121 -$97 10-25 03:17
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +136 $131 88¢ $119 -$12 10-25 17:50
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +147 $100 80¢ $119 +$19 10-24 12:07
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +150 $118 75¢ $112 -$6 10-15 10:13
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? Yes +150 $93 64¢ $95 +$2 10-18 23:23
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +100 $85 81¢ $81 -$4 09-19 05:36
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? No +100 $51 69¢ $69 +$18 05-28 10:50
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No -50 -$44 88¢ $-44 +$0 10-22 06:18
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No -1,000 -$456 3¢ $-28 +$427 05-07 14:10
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? No +102 $95 26¢ $27 -$68 10-27 16:19
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +400 $20 6¢ $26 +$6 09-23 07:17
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes +300 $24 6¢ $19 -$4 10-01 04:52
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +18 $17 85¢ $15 -$1 10-21 23:43
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Yes +159 $86 10¢ $15 -$71 10-27 23:09
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? Yes +200 $10 5¢ $11 +$1 09-16 03:24
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -396 -$191 0¢ $-1 +$190 04-29 04:16
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -0 $2 85¢ $-0 -$2 04-29 21:09
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? No +0 $3 98¢ $0 -$3 09-29 17:55
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No +0 -$12 93¢ $0 +$12 05-10 01:33
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +0 -$24 92¢ $0 +$24 06-14 22:13