Stiff-Deal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

122

lifetime

Volume

$1.92K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$50

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 06-09 12:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

51% — —

Other

33% — —

Politics

9% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

3% 0% $-20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	-20	$-20	99¢	$-20	$-0	06-05 01:14
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+20	$20	98¢	$20	$-0	06-09 12:35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-11	$-10	93¢	$-10	+$0	06-05 01:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	4	$119	60	60	+0	open	—	03-26 04:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	6	$108	55	55	+0	open	—	04-14 12:39
bitcoin above 56k on march 3	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	03-02 16:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	4	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	04-28 07:07
will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-06 06:16
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-08 12:19
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-10 03:12
will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-14 03:15
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$62	31	31	+0	open	—	03-15 10:46
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	2	$59	30	30	+0	open	—	04-07 15:05
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	2	$58	30	30	+0	open	—	03-28 01:45
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$57	29	29	+0	open	—	03-24 00:14
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$57	29	29	+0	open	—	03-23 00:34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$57	29	29	+0	open	—	03-20 12:57
trump out as president by march 31	3	$57	29	29	+0	open	—	03-18 23:56
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	4	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	04-17 01:18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$54	27	27	+0	open	—	04-17 01:17
btc updown 15m 1770208200	4	$51	37	37	+0	open	—	02-04 12:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	2	$44	23	23	+0	open	—	04-14 12:40
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$43	23	23	+0	open	—	04-28 07:08
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	04-17 01:18
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	04-17 01:19
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	04-18 14:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	04-28 13:21
btc updown 15m 1770215400	3	$40	42	42	+0	open	—	02-04 14:43
btc updown 15m 1770216300	5	$32	60	9	+51	open	—	02-04 14:51
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	open	—	02-25 02:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$30	16	16	+0	open	—	05-05 08:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	05-08 05:13
btc updown 5m 1774662300	1	$29	109	0	+109	open	—	03-28 01:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 12:36:16	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xde445e…
06-09 12:35:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x604f9a…
06-05 01:14:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xb2cefa…
06-05 01:14:16	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xba13c9…
05-08 05:13:32	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x8196a4…
05-08 05:13:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xc5ff27…
05-05 08:23:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x04d5b7…
05-05 08:23:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x582365…
05-05 08:23:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xdbe073…
05-05 08:22:32	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x3f1e6b…
04-29 01:00:16	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xc357e8…
04-28 13:21:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x8ad653…
04-28 13:21:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd51401…
04-28 07:08:48	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x7337c7…
04-28 07:08:34	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	23	93¢	$21	0x521655…
04-28 07:08:28	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	23	93¢	$21	0x2cfd27…
04-28 07:07:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x779167…
04-28 07:07:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x743185…
04-25 07:43:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$11	0x36001a…
04-25 07:43:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6fac4b…
04-22 09:50:40	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x3979cf…
04-18 14:56:52	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xcb040c…
04-18 14:55:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xe35fcb…
04-17 01:19:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xa7c6b7…
04-17 01:19:34	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x43d16a…
04-17 01:19:18	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5c5c47…
04-17 01:18:50	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xe5403f…
04-17 01:18:44	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x62c4f5…
04-17 01:18:28	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x4de3e0…
04-17 01:18:22	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x6ad13a…
04-17 01:17:32	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x255396…
04-17 01:17:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x248479…
04-14 12:41:41	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa9dd1e…
04-14 12:40:45	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x571741…
04-14 12:40:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x101b9e…
04-14 12:40:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x576715…
04-14 12:40:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0xc6b62e…
04-14 12:39:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x89915b…
04-14 12:39:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x3e1767…
04-14 12:39:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x1b14d9…
04-14 12:38:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd28a10…
04-14 12:38:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xc0dfdd…
04-12 12:03:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x0f8b06…
04-12 12:03:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x03bacf…
04-09 23:29:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xa512d7…
04-07 15:34:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x17b451…
04-07 15:34:15	btc updown 5m 1775575800	Down	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0x28fdd1…
04-07 15:31:13	btc updown 5m 1775575800	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x61ed61…
04-07 15:31:05	btc updown 5m 1775575800	Up	SELL	5	32¢	$1	0x419515…
04-07 15:30:19	btc updown 5m 1775575800	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xabee6e…
04-07 15:28:25	btc updown 5m 1775575500	Down	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xe1ac4c…
04-07 15:26:05	btc updown 5m 1775575500	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x578080…
04-07 15:25:23	btc updown 5m 1775575500	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x62da06…
04-07 15:21:27	btc updown 5m 1775575200	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xb32463…
04-07 15:15:47	btc updown 5m 1775574900	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x6bcd94…
04-07 15:13:45	btc updown 5m 1775574600	Down	SELL	11	51¢	$6	0xa05ee8…
04-07 15:11:25	btc updown 5m 1775574600	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x52c169…
04-07 15:11:01	btc updown 5m 1775574600	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x34f849…
04-07 15:06:21	btc updown 5m 1775574300	Down	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x00942d…
04-07 15:05:49	btc updown 5m 1775574300	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x520b0d…
04-07 15:05:29	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0xea5fe5…
04-05 07:09:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf4ebf2…
04-05 07:09:13	highest temperature in shanghai on april 6 2026 23c	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4643b3…
04-04 02:15:19	btc updown 5m 1775268600	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x9706a2…
04-04 02:10:43	btc updown 5m 1775268600	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x8719e3…
03-30 12:51:40	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x81d649…
03-28 01:46:13	btc updown 5m 1774662300	Down	BUY	109	27¢	$29	0x8d4c3d…
03-28 01:45:57	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	SELL	30	99¢	$29	0x17da92…
03-26 04:21:13	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	30	96¢	$28	0x6c3f55…
03-26 04:20:59	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xca884a…
03-24 00:15:23	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x44aed2…
03-24 00:14:45	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x8fef32…
03-23 00:35:07	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x7203f8…
03-23 00:34:49	will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	No	SELL	29	98¢	$29	0x184253…
03-20 12:57:41	will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x2d10f5…
03-20 12:57:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0x6a7025…
03-18 23:57:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xc6f633…
03-18 23:56:27	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0xa82492…
03-17 00:21:47	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7425b2…
03-16 11:51:55	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xfe1db1…
03-15 10:46:47	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xa03711…
03-14 03:15:41	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x6e6873…
03-14 03:15:27	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x722f72…
03-12 01:25:45	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xa8e182…
03-12 01:25:15	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xe09817…
03-10 03:12:33	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x4a4f5f…
03-10 03:12:17	will ethereum dip to 400 in march 2026	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0x60a2de…
03-10 03:12:11	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xc61201…
03-08 12:19:53	will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9ae78b…
03-08 12:19:37	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x8a7ce8…
03-06 06:16:27	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xf3702c…
03-06 06:16:09	will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xdfdcd3…
03-02 16:23:37	will ethereum dip to 400 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xfef99a…
03-02 16:23:21	will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x6765d5…
03-02 16:22:53	bitcoin above 56k on march 3	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x1a8ab0…
03-02 15:07:57	bitcoin above 56k on march 3	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xc81873…
02-28 16:21:13	btc updown 5m 1772295600	Down	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x1e1ce4…
02-28 16:18:05	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x4f6d75…
02-25 02:03:38	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x3078f4…
02-22 07:26:30	nba cle okc 2026 02 22	Thunder	BUY	11	41¢	$4	0xdc2c04…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f	33	$3.03K	1,785	06-10 03:07
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	31	$180.1K	634	06-08 16:09
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	31	$22.6K	9,363	04-25 16:15
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	30	$283.5K	4,319	06-10 01:34
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	29	$60.3K	466	06-07 21:47
Spirited-Motion 0x70b6…aa2f	29	$6.62K	3,136	06-03 20:03
Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44	29	$2.63K	1,639	06-09 17:48
Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d	26	$1.11K	1,052	06-10 03:07