Annual-Thong — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$126

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

68.7%

Resolved

2,131

Trades

3,715

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-01 14:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 67% -$148

Politics

3% 72% +$48

Other

3% 47% -$27

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	+19	$5	7¢	$1	-$4	05-19 16:01
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$4	2¢	$1	-$3	05-20 00:59
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+25	$4	3¢	$1	-$4	05-19 07:44
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+6	$1	11¢	$1	$0	06-17 16:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC	19	$79	82	82	+0	Down	-$1	07-14 20:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:15 UTC	12	$61	57	57	+0	Down	+$1	07-14 19:28
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	4	$50	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-14 05:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 18:45 UTC	10	$47	38	38	+0	Down	-$3	07-14 18:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:30 UTC	10	$46	56	56	+0	Up	-$4	07-14 17:42
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	3	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	02-25 19:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 16:30 UTC	8	$40	35	35	+0	Down	+$0	07-14 16:39
bitcoin up or down july 14 2026 12pm et	10	$40	39	39	+0	Down	+$0	07-14 16:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 16:45 UTC	8	$40	35	34	+0	Down	+$0	07-14 16:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 16:15 UTC	8	$38	30	30	+0	Up	-$2	07-14 16:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 18:30 UTC	6	$32	26	26	+0	Up	+$2	07-14 18:35
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$31	100	40	+60	Yes	+$51	02-19 11:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 00:30 UTC	6	$31	26	23	+3	Down	+$4	07-16 00:40
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	3	$30	1,231	0	+1,231	No	-$30	03-17 11:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:00 UTC	6	$30	30	30	+0	Down	$0	07-14 20:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:00 UTC	6	$29	25	25	+0	Down	$0	07-14 17:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:45 UTC	6	$29	19	19	+0	Up	-$1	07-14 19:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:30 UTC	6	$28	29	28	+0	Down	-$2	07-14 19:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:00 UTC	6	$28	27	27	+0	Up	-$2	07-14 19:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:45 UTC	6	$28	22	22	+0	Up	-$2	07-14 20:54
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	3	$24	24	24	+0	Yes	+$2	02-28 06:14
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	1	$23	0	43	-43	Yes	-$20	01-03 09:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$23	59	59	+0	Yes	+$3	02-19 07:09
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	2	$22	12	12	+0	No	+$2	03-27 07:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 20:30 UTC	9	$22	15	15	+0	Up	+$2	07-14 20:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 01:45 UTC	5	$21	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	07-16 01:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$0	06-06 12:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	4	$21	18	18	+0	Down	+$1	05-01 22:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	2	$21	15	15	+0	No	+$1	04-06 12:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 00:45 UTC	4	$21	14	14	+0	Up	+$1	07-16 00:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 14:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc79f3e…
10-01 09:10:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xdbae8a…
10-01 09:10:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x68de70…
10-01 09:10:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x526697…
10-01 09:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x203a34…
10-01 08:56:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 08:45 UTC	Up	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0xba72a0…
10-01 08:47:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x63c5b9…
10-01 08:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-01 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xf2da41…
09-30 21:32:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x702a9c…
09-30 20:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x03b36e…
09-30 19:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xb2a494…
09-30 16:29:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x1f2e74…
09-30 16:29:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe6c2a2…
09-30 16:29:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb94074…
09-30 16:29:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x76d773…
09-30 16:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6a67d4…
09-30 15:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x2fea97…
09-30 11:54:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 11:45 UTC	Down	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0x68f10d…
09-30 11:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-30 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf45bdf…
09-29 14:32:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x0e8880…
09-29 14:26:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 14:15 UTC	Up	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xbfe604…
09-29 14:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x15bc30…
09-29 12:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x7d89e1…
09-29 09:28:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x4fc814…
09-29 09:28:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x3db311…
09-29 09:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x65018d…
09-29 09:09:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x154445…
09-29 09:09:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:00 UTC	Down	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0xaeda80…
09-29 09:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd65ae3…
09-28 20:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x2be849…
09-28 18:29:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 18:15 UTC	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc2fb87…
09-28 18:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x66a853…
09-28 14:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xdbd6b6…
09-28 13:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x2aa52a…
09-28 12:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-28 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x77e92d…
09-27 20:41:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0xbf5ec7…
09-27 20:32:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xd1add0…
09-27 16:17:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xd543d9…
09-27 14:23:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0xff694f…
09-27 14:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7a8d96…
09-26 16:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x45cc1d…
09-26 13:32:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-26 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x525402…
09-25 14:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x83a38a…
09-25 11:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x21e7c9…
09-24 23:59:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 23:45 UTC	Down	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0xe9b17c…
09-24 23:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf27c05…
09-24 21:56:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 21:45 UTC	Down	SELL	9	97¢	$8	0x618e49…
09-24 21:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x4ed8b4…
09-24 19:47:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x864cf3…
09-24 18:32:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x33a465…
09-24 17:13:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc45008…
09-24 17:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xe09433…
09-24 14:17:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xea2f85…
09-24 14:02:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x0dfe34…
09-24 13:12:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xf124d9…
09-24 13:12:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcbd883…
09-24 13:02:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x223826…
09-24 11:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-24 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc298ae…
09-24 00:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x7ec75e…
09-24 00:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xf8793f…
09-23 23:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x13c11e…
09-23 21:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xfc21e2…
09-23 21:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x0273fa…
09-23 21:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$2	0xbabfab…
09-23 21:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x5c2181…
09-23 20:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x135e7c…
09-23 18:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x53edb5…
09-23 15:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x842765…
09-23 15:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0x4a5ac7…
09-23 15:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6ec0b2…
09-23 14:34:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x62b6bb…
09-23 14:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xfddfa1…
09-23 13:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x069bcd…
09-23 11:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x09a09e…
09-23 09:56:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-23 09:45 UTC	Up	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x1bc785…
09-23 09:47:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-23 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x644e00…
09-23 09:43:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-23 09:30 UTC	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xed2422…
09-23 09:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x2e63af…
09-23 09:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x7f0f13…
09-23 08:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x656770…
09-22 22:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0xb98ef5…
09-22 22:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x887915…
09-22 20:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0x43f9ea…
09-22 20:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	88¢	$4	0x24d258…
09-22 20:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x198a75…
09-22 16:41:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	97¢	$8	0x63db44…
09-22 16:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xe4f991…
09-22 15:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x09f7d9…
09-19 16:02:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xac2858…
09-19 14:47:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x37bfaf…
09-19 13:47:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x175062…
09-19 13:02:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xf22f31…
09-19 09:02:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6c95e3…
09-19 00:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x50f9b6…
09-18 19:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xfe8513…
09-18 19:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1f85fc…
09-18 18:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x84e32e…
09-18 18:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf8a306…
09-18 17:11:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0xa4c4a8…
09-18 17:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x1b55bb…