Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

185

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$236

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-23

last 11-07 05:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

83% 63% +$24

Politics

13% 58% +$4

Tech

3% 40% +$0

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	10-30 05:00
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	+2	$1	46¢	$1	$0	11-03 17:11
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	+3	$1	29¢	$1	$0	11-07 05:03
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+1	$1	50¢	$1	$0	11-06 12:45
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	20¢	$0	-$1	11-05 17:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-13 11:03
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	2	$2	5	+5	No	$0	10-13 10:37
Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	09-30 23:57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$0	10-11 01:06
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	No	-$1	10-03 08:19
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-02 00:52
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	No	-$1	09-20 20:15
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	10-10 07:17
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	08-09 14:15
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-08 21:15
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-19 02:55
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 11:59
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-14 03:18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-08 13:09
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-09 06:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-06 09:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	07-23 01:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-04 20:51
spx up or down on august 5 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Down	-$2	08-05 04:55
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-04 12:47
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-04 04:47
grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	08-11 06:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-03 04:40
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	-$2	07-25 01:32
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-09 22:25
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	No	+$2	11-06 01:31
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$3	09-30 15:47
will trump say steel during michigan remarks 20260724162420360	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	07-26 13:39
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-13 19:18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-16 04:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 05:03:36	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x766760…
11-06 20:46:40	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in October?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa7871f…
11-06 12:45:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x02b6cd…
11-06 01:31:33	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb63b98…
11-06 01:30:34	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x309161…
11-05 17:28:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x398d9a…
11-05 09:11:06	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x02ce2a…
11-04 23:37:54	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xaec449…
11-04 09:16:42	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xb643d5…
11-04 01:14:33	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x541845…
11-03 17:11:46	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xad184a…
11-03 09:07:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 3?	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9c0b21…
11-03 09:07:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x740517…
11-03 01:06:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x798764…
11-03 01:06:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc0dec6…
11-02 17:06:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf3be17…
11-02 17:06:27	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7835fe…
11-02 09:06:15	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8fd336…
11-02 01:05:57	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x650d70…
11-01 16:48:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x89899f…
10-31 17:07:12	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4f5406…
10-30 14:53:58	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x91c1c9…
10-30 13:35:16	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x883657…
10-30 05:00:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x735719…
10-29 20:50:16	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdbc678…
10-29 11:54:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x3a0159…
10-29 03:46:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x73d4ec…
10-28 19:45:50	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 in October?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5476f2…
10-28 11:37:35	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x4716f5…
10-28 03:35:19	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xaaae3a…
10-27 18:59:33	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x82a701…
10-27 10:58:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa58abb…
10-27 02:54:56	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x65a18a…
10-26 18:17:03	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $562.50 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb4a450…
10-26 10:04:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x788469…
10-26 02:04:42	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x53fdc6…
10-25 18:04:36	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x148200…
10-25 10:03:47	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x65d98a…
10-25 02:03:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3c8897…
10-24 14:23:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x910d83…
10-24 06:16:59	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa50e6d…
10-23 21:00:29	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8367de…
10-23 12:56:29	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1e0724…
10-23 04:56:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0f836a…
10-22 20:55:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe82dbb…
10-22 12:52:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x46496d…
10-22 04:51:14	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd151de…
10-21 20:49:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd15060…
10-21 12:43:50	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x517bf0…
10-21 04:37:54	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd124b0…
10-20 20:29:02	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x967332…
10-20 12:28:15	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.25 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x76d1d6…
10-20 04:28:06	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc38dec…
10-19 20:27:09	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5dada0…
10-19 12:27:02	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x49b53e…
10-19 04:26:53	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa2788e…
10-18 20:26:35	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x05adcc…
10-18 11:55:51	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xbfe500…
10-18 03:53:50	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xc81a1c…
10-17 19:48:57	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0c6692…
10-17 11:47:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x708df5…
10-17 01:17:30	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2e88e1…
10-16 12:19:55	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x664680…
10-16 04:04:25	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x8b7509…
10-15 19:04:25	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x646c16…
10-15 10:44:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd0490f…
10-15 02:39:28	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xfe1682…
10-15 02:39:25	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x426a62…
10-13 18:38:10	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8a9f29…
10-13 10:37:46	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe6d862…
10-13 02:30:44	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xfb3216…
10-12 18:30:39	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x40346e…
10-12 10:30:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x10c1b5…
10-12 02:30:05	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf5b1de…
10-11 18:18:42	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x887a19…
10-11 09:39:27	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4ab5ed…
10-11 01:06:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe27d22…
10-11 00:59:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xdc23c6…
10-11 00:46:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x1ae78b…
10-10 16:32:31	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x406089…
10-10 07:17:57	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe38db1…
10-09 22:56:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfff017…
10-09 22:56:02	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0b5979…
10-09 14:31:18	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xf7d7ba…
10-09 06:08:50	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbad727…
10-08 22:08:36	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe1f082…
10-08 14:06:41	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x812b04…
10-08 06:01:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5811c5…
10-07 21:59:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe56230…
10-07 13:57:38	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd0b02e…
10-07 05:33:27	Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xeee24d…
10-06 21:33:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf5dd0d…
10-06 13:32:36	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8b4ce4…
10-06 05:30:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb834f6…
10-05 21:30:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x158180…
10-05 12:38:04	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x74835a…
10-05 00:53:49	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xaf63b7…
10-04 09:47:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x08549d…
10-03 17:56:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x74a781…
10-03 08:19:09	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb63969…