Hopeful-Homogenate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$130

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.4%

Resolved

178

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$20.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$88

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-30 16:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 81% -$15

Other

24% 68% -$106

Sports

21% 15% -$6

Politics

15% 45% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$489	245	245	+0	No	$0	01-16 10:07
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$270	136	136	+0	No	$0	03-09 08:01
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	2	$270	135	135	+0	No	$0	02-13 05:38
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$270	136	136	+0	No	$0	03-09 08:23
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$270	135	135	+0	No	$0	02-13 06:10
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$269	135	135	+0	No	$0	02-13 06:35
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$262	131	131	+0	No	$0	03-02 07:39
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$257	129	129	+0	No	$0	03-12 08:57
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$257	129	129	+0	No	$0	03-10 12:47
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$257	129	129	+0	No	$0	03-12 09:23
will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	2	$250	125	125	+0	No	$0	03-24 08:02
will bitcoin dip to 30k in march 2026	2	$250	125	125	+0	No	$0	03-24 08:28
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$249	125	125	+0	No	$0	03-20 09:40
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$249	125	125	+0	No	$0	03-20 10:02
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$238	119	119	+0	No	$0	02-10 08:19
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$237	119	119	+0	No	$0	03-29 10:02
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$237	119	119	+0	No	$0	03-29 10:16
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$236	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-16 10:40
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$229	115	115	+0	No	$0	01-15 08:33
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$222	111	111	+0	No	$0	04-05 11:43
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$218	111	111	+0	Yes	-$4	05-26 12:44
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$216	108	108	+0	No	$0	05-27 07:23
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$216	108	108	+0	No	$0	05-27 08:20
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	2	$216	108	108	+0	No	$0	04-14 06:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	2	$210	105	105	+0	No	$0	05-18 11:33
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	2	$210	106	106	+0	No	$0	05-20 06:28
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	2	$202	101	101	+0	No	$0	05-06 05:00
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	$0	04-25 08:54
Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	$0	04-26 09:17
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$196	98	98	+0	No	$0	05-24 07:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 16:44:09	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at <$125 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x24c37d…
10-30 16:43:49	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $160-$165 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xbf6d56…
10-30 16:43:43	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x7b75d1…
10-30 16:42:09	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at >$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x48a11f…
09-25 12:26:23	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in September?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb41866…
08-31 20:54:51	will ethereum reach 2700 on august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x432031…
07-10 09:02:01	will amzn dip to 220 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0xed1f68…
07-03 11:25:58	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	No	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0xd02575…
06-30 07:47:58	will open reach 7 00 in june 2026	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x86bd00…
06-05 13:13:31	will spy dip to 725 by june 1 2026	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x4a49ba…
06-01 08:01:30	Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	BUY	9	36¢	$3	0x7b7e12…
05-31 06:29:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x768292…
05-31 06:26:01	Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek	Iga Swiatek	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xaf5945…
05-30 08:43:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xb1cff0…
05-30 08:37:13	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$64	0x9eaaf7…
05-30 08:13:55	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	64	99¢	$64	0x67411a…
05-30 08:09:38	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	13	58¢	$7	0x983f28…
05-30 08:04:54	Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfef712…
05-29 06:01:48	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of May 25 2026?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0x7048cc…
05-29 06:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x63f044…
05-28 06:35:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$84	0x04d3c2…
05-28 06:32:33	Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$84	0xffda15…
05-28 05:55:47	Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xa9601c…
05-28 05:52:08	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs	Virtus.pro	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0x9fe787…
05-28 05:48:27	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x517552…
05-27 08:29:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x1b7c81…
05-27 08:24:20	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x26a7f4…
05-27 08:20:50	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0x112904…
05-27 07:25:51	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x64b7bd…
05-27 07:23:37	Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xc390ef…
05-27 07:06:15	Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x09691b…
05-26 12:51:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xea270d…
05-26 12:44:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	111	96¢	$107	0x643066…
05-25 11:26:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xe02ecd…
05-24 07:26:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x082a79…
05-24 07:23:21	Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x0daa6a…
05-24 07:07:46	Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x619302…
05-24 07:03:36	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	13	44¢	$6	0xbfce30…
05-23 06:58:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xe428ed…
05-23 06:50:03	LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	LOS	BUY	16	54¢	$8	0x9d2292…
05-23 06:41:46	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0xdf64e1…
05-23 05:59:42	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x1a2ce9…
05-22 06:51:05	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x2d5d5c…
05-20 06:39:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$97	0xc7ad74…
05-20 06:33:35	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Jil Teichmann	Alycia Parks	BUY	14	53¢	$8	0x6f737f…
05-20 06:28:07	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0xe41206…
05-20 06:03:32	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0x493266…
05-19 12:02:27	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x71eb1e…
05-18 11:36:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x5dc7df…
05-18 11:33:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x7b574f…
05-18 11:17:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x7eb152…
05-17 08:37:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x23af83…
05-16 06:15:59	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x76aeb4…
05-16 06:12:13	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Tundra Esports	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0xad6b67…
05-16 06:04:29	Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xd19dc9…
05-16 05:15:47	Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x39511d…
05-16 05:13:23	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xa77762…
05-16 04:57:58	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xff5877…
05-15 06:04:20	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x79c5fb…
05-14 09:01:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x7ee289…
05-14 08:59:01	LoL: Once Upon A Team vs ZennIT (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season	Once Upon A Team	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0x11161e…
05-14 08:53:15	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x617b17…
05-14 08:37:54	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0xfb1600…
05-14 08:36:37	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x0d756e…
05-14 08:14:24	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0xfd8cd5…
05-13 12:52:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$94	0x14f050…
05-12 09:32:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$94	0x13e469…
05-11 08:20:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0xaba275…
05-11 08:18:22	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$93	0x60aa51…
05-11 08:02:18	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x6998f7…
05-11 08:01:10	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$93	0x7ede79…
05-11 07:41:35	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x83f417…
05-10 07:52:22	Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 10?	No	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0xb8384d…
05-10 07:40:28	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova	Liudmila Samsonova	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x52b488…
05-09 07:45:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xa9654c…
05-09 07:42:29	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x3319ce…
05-09 07:23:25	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x29ac13…
05-09 07:21:03	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x43e3c1…
05-09 07:05:23	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x823603…
05-08 03:28:21	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x487d29…
05-07 10:38:14	Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 7?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xb447b2…
05-07 10:34:40	Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x4d3278…
05-07 10:18:17	Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x453827…
05-07 10:12:30	Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid	Hapoel Tel Aviv	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0xe7a8e1…
05-06 05:10:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x6ccc6c…
05-06 05:04:40	KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins	LG Twins	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x99c461…
05-06 05:00:00	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x47ae66…
05-06 04:27:18	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5fce12…
05-04 12:38:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd904e3…
05-03 07:42:56	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x97860a…
05-01 05:24:46	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xcca665…
04-30 09:51:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x91cdee…
04-29 05:15:46	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x380ca3…
04-28 03:45:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x112574…
04-27 14:15:02	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xb856c8…
04-26 09:22:00	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x506333…
04-26 09:17:26	Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xb35270…
04-26 08:59:52	Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xd3a70c…
04-25 08:56:02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xf17f8b…
04-25 08:54:16	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xb108d1…