Occasional-Flexibility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.71K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.52K

Hit rate

64.6%

Resolved

399

Trades

5,619

lifetime

Volume

$1.04M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$185

Open exposure

$7.77K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 05:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 117 days

Categories

Politics

51% 45% +$2,536

Other

24% 57% -$8,653

Crypto

22% 79% +$4,151

Sports

2% 48% +$4,358

Tech

0% 43% +$309

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-6,539	-$3,954	92¢	$-5983	-$2,029	06-01 12:47
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+1,829	-$4,707	97¢	$1.8K	+$6,480	11-04 02:25
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	-1,500	-$87	1¢	$-14	+$73	10-06 02:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	64	$70.7K	52,493	47,493	+5,000	Yes	-$4,596	02-02 23:23
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	71	$42.2K	31,754	25,734	+6,020	Yes	+$5,094	03-02 20:56
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	22	$32.8K	31,521	31,516	+5	No	+$12,900	06-03 00:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	59	$26.7K	19,708	19,708	+0	open	—	10-27 22:17
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	5	$21.2K	11,092	11,092	+0	No	+$913	02-01 06:37
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	52	$21.0K	12,185	12,185	+0	Yes	+$3,321	10-26 22:53
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	24	$19.4K	12,486	12,486	+0	Yes	+$2,840	06-10 16:10
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$16.8K	8,500	8,500	+0	No	+$221	05-21 19:24
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	47	$14.9K	27,473	27,473	+0	Yes	-$2,374	04-03 15:39
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	10	$14.6K	13,016	11,187	+1,829	open	—	11-04 02:25
bitboy convicted	18	$14.4K	15,034	6,305	+8,728	No	+$2,663	03-31 20:46
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	31	$14.3K	9,869	9,869	+0	Yes	+$4,180	04-24 17:25
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	69	$14.2K	15,638	5,654	+9,984	Yes	+$247	05-16 01:17
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	23	$14.0K	13,360	13,360	+0	No	-$1,542	01-30 00:50
will ethereum dip to 1550 on june 30	9	$13.8K	10,100	10,095	+5	No	+$2,294	07-01 02:04
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	30	$13.4K	8,174	8,174	+0	Yes	+$1,772	05-04 14:10
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$13.0K	6,700	6,700	+0	No	+$14	01-23 10:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	41	$12.1K	8,100	8,100	+0	No	-$154	03-29 19:53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	7	$12.0K	0	14,733	-14,733	No	-$2,753	01-25 00:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	8	$11.4K	9,565	9,565	+0	No	-$7,423	05-23 14:55
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	16	$11.1K	8,712	8,712	+0	No	+$1,246	11-04 01:05
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 1m 791 144 948	35	$11.1K	7,486	7,012	+474	No	+$495	02-15 14:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	22	$10.5K	22,487	3,427	+19,060	Yes	+$10,745	06-14 23:16
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	12	$10.1K	7,930	6,430	+1,500	Yes	-$715	03-28 03:55
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	12	$10.1K	5,500	5,500	+0	Yes	+$894	04-09 16:39
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	13	$9.5K	12,600	11,800	+800	Yes	-$7,789	02-28 07:10
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	6	$9.5K	5,719	5,719	+0	No	+$1,253	03-16 22:22
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$9.3K	10,397	10,397	+0	Yes	-$1,086	02-28 06:59
Iran leadership change by April 30?	3	$9.3K	6,340	6,340	+0	No	+$1,532	03-31 16:36
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	4	$9.1K	4,637	4,637	+0	Yes	+$75	02-02 23:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 05:35:42	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	460	0¢	$1	0xcddb15…
11-04 05:35:03	Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,100	0¢	$7	0x927a55…
11-04 03:49:57	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	675	31¢	$209	0x310c66…
11-04 02:25:42	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	798	78¢	$622	0xcce8df…
11-04 02:22:16	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	1,032	73¢	$753	0xa68467…
11-04 02:03:24	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	212	32¢	$67	0xa11c6e…
11-04 02:01:57	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,544	95¢	$1,467	0x320ed7…
11-04 02:00:39	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x572a9b…
11-04 01:59:18	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	3,210	2¢	$48	0x24def8…
11-04 01:55:04	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	5,776	87¢	$5,025	0xf386e4…
11-04 01:54:42	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	411	87¢	$357	0x52f395…
11-04 01:53:52	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	460	6¢	$28	0x3b6c56…
11-04 01:51:42	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	558	90¢	$502	0x9eeab6…
11-04 01:51:16	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,111	90¢	$1,000	0x913c13…
11-04 01:50:49	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	90¢	$1,350	0x5ca48c…
11-04 01:50:46	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	786	90¢	$708	0x61dd5e…
11-04 01:41:49	Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	900	16¢	$144	0x2c2625…
11-04 01:39:27	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	5,000	85¢	$4,250	0x8ac649…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xed9a69…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xe798bf…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0xe4ad25…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x91a5f2…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	19¢	$9	0x606e66…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x499237…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	19¢	$95	0x3e003a…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x2caf26…
11-04 01:35:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	271	19¢	$52	0x01b25a…
11-04 01:26:54	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,091	35¢	$382	0xcc2b6b…
11-04 01:26:54	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xc8a6ee…
11-04 01:26:54	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x9c15a9…
11-04 01:22:10	Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	11¢	$330	0xb91f3e…
11-04 01:14:54	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,060	88¢	$933	0x39e9d6…
11-04 01:05:22	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	93¢	$930	0xbd7600…
11-04 01:05:22	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1,800	93¢	$1,674	0x766460…
11-04 01:05:22	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0x0898d6…
11-04 01:00:13	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	1,348	8¢	$108	0xf964b2…
11-04 00:59:16	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	385	8¢	$31	0x852150…
11-04 00:56:51	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	53	8¢	$5	0x15cb2c…
11-04 00:56:30	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xbbf8f4…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0xfa3a9e…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	53¢	$28	0xf6ec53…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xea6463…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xe38853…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	53¢	$19	0xdfbe94…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0xd24cb4…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0xd0d502…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xce0e69…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0xb282f5…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	53¢	$28	0x50070f…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x4db201…
11-04 00:49:21	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x40fd06…
11-04 00:48:55	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	53¢	$29	0xdf65a0…
11-04 00:48:01	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	640	9¢	$58	0x534e4b…
11-04 00:47:33	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	33	9¢	$3	0xea5b8c…
11-04 00:10:30	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	17	11¢	$2	0xc66afb…
11-04 00:10:30	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	72	11¢	$8	0x828341…
11-04 00:10:28	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	13	11¢	$1	0x677756…
11-04 00:10:27	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	92	11¢	$10	0xa68467…
11-04 00:05:40	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,688	6¢	$97	0xaf9163…
11-04 00:04:49	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,177	5¢	$60	0x3e5212…
11-04 00:04:25	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,681	6¢	$161	0x4d16a0…
11-03 21:09:55	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	5,671	10¢	$556	0xb8d7c2…
11-03 20:32:34	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,116	40¢	$1,646	0xc3b4e8…
11-03 20:31:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,000	75¢	$2,250	0x987d3b…
11-03 19:53:06	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0xa3327b…
11-03 19:53:03	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	188	39¢	$73	0x36653d…
11-03 16:04:34	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,330	36¢	$479	0xfa38ae…
11-03 15:39:13	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	33¢	$26	0x887343…
11-03 15:34:10	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	33¢	$8	0x976a9b…
11-03 12:24:40	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,955	38¢	$1,503	0xe2c48f…
11-02 14:02:09	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	8,000	32¢	$2,560	0xbd4d43…
11-02 03:39:03	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	400	32¢	$128	0xbb9d56…
11-02 03:36:48	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0x7ff5b3…
11-02 02:36:33	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	1,287	34¢	$438	0x5fc6e0…
11-02 02:36:18	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	64¢	$640	0xc9c5a5…
11-02 01:18:46	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	1,000	26¢	$260	0x103b94…
11-01 17:38:13	Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 46.5	Over	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0x1cbf88…
11-01 17:22:34	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,558	24¢	$374	0xacaae5…
11-01 17:18:12	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	25¢	$4	0xff4699…
11-01 17:16:51	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	25¢	$20	0x9a2d12…
11-01 17:15:30	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x0cbaab…
11-01 17:15:28	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	25¢	$14	0xb0bb99…
11-01 17:15:22	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xfed651…
11-01 17:14:12	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	25¢	$37	0x403c92…
11-01 17:14:12	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	25¢	$31	0x277843…
10-28 10:07:52	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	3,101	55¢	$1,706	0xe32be6…
10-28 10:03:46	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	183	55¢	$101	0x3119dd…
10-28 10:03:26	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	1,697	55¢	$934	0x8b8bd6…
10-28 07:20:19	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc13dec…
10-28 04:54:04	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x538c22…
10-28 04:45:47	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x6a6016…
10-28 04:45:08	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xcad4c3…
10-27 22:29:00	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	8,885	8¢	$745	0xc061b3…
10-27 22:17:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10,820	61¢	$6,600	0x15a0ac…
10-27 03:55:11	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	870	64¢	$557	0xa34c3e…
10-27 01:33:39	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x0011be…
10-27 01:33:06	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0x962e4e…
10-27 01:33:03	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,956	31¢	$606	0x432350…
10-26 23:54:05	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	110	64¢	$70	0x9251ba…
10-26 23:54:05	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x20ed9d…