Realized P&L
+$41.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.08K
Hit rate
83.9%
Resolved
456
Trades
4,903
lifetime
Volume
$632.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$129
Open exposure
$18.4K
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-08 13:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 128 days
Categories
Politics
73% 83% +$33,907
Other
26% 74% +$6,611
Tech
1% 100% +$505
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
18 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Nawrocki out by December 31? No +2,211 $2,018 98¢ $2.2K +$141 10-31 06:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 No +2,000 $1,530 90¢ $1.8K +$270 08-04 12:31
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +1,332 $1,097 95¢ $1.3K +$168 06-19 09:11
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No +1,255 $567 98¢ $1.2K +$666 07-17 10:22
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +1,237 $930 94¢ $1.2K +$238 08-29 20:23
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026? No +1,215 $971 88¢ $1.1K +$98 11-06 22:41
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027? No +1,400 $1,066 74¢ $1.0K -$23 11-08 13:08
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -1,000 -$842 94¢ $-945 -$103 07-23 23:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,000 $868 90¢ $895 +$27 11-04 04:38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +1,500 $625 58¢ $870 +$245 11-07 04:40
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026? No +800 $680 88¢ $700 +$20 11-07 03:55
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -1,144 -$752 55¢ $-623 +$128 11-04 04:17
Tusk out by December 31? No +625 $544 96¢ $602 +$59 10-31 01:05
Święczkowski charged by December 31? Yes +998 $308 54¢ $534 +$226 11-03 16:03
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027? No +584 $364 80¢ $470 +$105 11-06 20:19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? No +600 $378 64¢ $387 +$9 11-04 04:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? Yes +600 $300 64¢ $381 +$81 11-05 21:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +500 $310 72¢ $362 +$52 11-05 18:05
Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31? No +400 $344 82¢ $330 -$14 11-06 17:26
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2027? Yes +500 $255 53¢ $265 +$10 11-06 22:05
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? No +300 $249 88¢ $264 +$15 11-06 17:40
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 Yes +2,000 $480 12¢ $250 -$230 08-09 11:43
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +250 $206 98¢ $246 +$40 11-04 04:22
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2027? Yes +412 $208 52¢ $212 +$4 10-31 15:35
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No +180 $170 99¢ $178 +$8 06-13 23:07
Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI? Yes +100 $56 86¢ $85 +$29 11-02 22:54
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +42 $28 74¢ $31 +$3 11-07 09:31
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +400 $208 4¢ $16 -$192 06-26 04:26
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +100 $17 14¢ $14 -$3 11-02 09:52