Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?
open
Total volume
$207
$1,766 in 24h
Trades
32
Unique wallets
25
Liquidity
$994
Latest YES mid
38¢
Latest NO mid
62¢
End date
2026-05-15
First seen
2026-05-13
last 05-14 10:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | $2 | $5 | $3 |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | — | $2 | $2 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 22 | $37 | $137 | $100 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | — | $107 | $107 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| Median | 7 | $5 | $10 | $5 |
| Below median | 7 | $23 | $24 | $1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $7 | $2 | +$5 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lovable-Hutch 0x044f…d1f1 | No | +136 | $78 | $78 | 4 | 05-14 00:22 |
| Usable-Conifer 0x1753…cafd | Yes | +45 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-13 14:58 |
| Quick-Bitter 0xe2be…ff33 | No | +30 | $18 | $18 | 3 | 05-14 00:15 |
| Sure-Footed-Cherry 0xa98a…a5a8 | No | +24 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 05-13 18:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xadd9…8df9 | Yes | +17 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-14 00:28 |
| Female-Lout 0x873d…f7a9 | Yes | +12 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-14 03:06 |
| Constant-Lobotomy 0x7546…b17a | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 02:42 |
| Overcooked-Plot 0x2298…9f33 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-14 07:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | +9 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-13 17:37 |
| Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | +9 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 05-14 10:54 |
| Reflecting-Ancestor 0xc9d9…07e7 | No | +7 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 06:01 |
| Stunning-Barbeque 0xc80f…6147 | Yes | +7 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 09:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x2390…f69d | Yes | +6 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-13 21:40 |
| Tremendous-Kitten 0xbd6c…1e6d | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-13 18:38 |
| Definite-Mobster 0x4718…8ebd | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 03:02 |
| Vast-Study 0x8bca…0500 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-13 21:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xcdd4…05eb | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 00:14 |
| Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 00:24 |
| Costly-Fail 0x52d7…0ff9 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 05:10 |
| Torn-Semicolon 0xfd9b…96bf | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 04:17 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 10:54:24 | Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | BUY | 4 | 58¢ | $2 | 0xaedf15… |
| 05-14 09:59:46 | Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | BUY | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x8a8490… |
| 05-14 07:09:12 | Overcooked-Plot 0x2298…9f33 | No | BUY | 10 | 67¢ | $7 | 0xef671b… |
| 05-14 06:01:01 | Reflecting-Ancestor 0xc9d9…07e7 | No | BUY | 7 | 67¢ | $5 | 0xb6a176… |
| 05-14 05:40:22 | All-Camp 0xacca…8996 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 34¢ | $7 | 0x9f29e2… |
| 05-14 05:10:47 | Costly-Fail 0x52d7…0ff9 | No | BUY | 3 | 66¢ | $2 | 0x1c3e26… |
| 05-14 05:10:46 | Junior-Resale 0x9646…d98d | No | SELL | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x16adf2… |
| 05-14 03:16:08 | Webbed-Pilot 0x3209…0508 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x4603e7… |
| 05-14 03:15:16 | Webbed-Pilot 0x3209…0508 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 34¢ | $5 | 0xd806f7… |
| 05-14 03:06:52 | Female-Lout 0x873d…f7a9 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 33¢ | $4 | 0x9dbd64… |
| 05-14 03:02:03 | Definite-Mobster 0x4718…8ebd | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xbe791e… |
| 05-14 02:42:11 | Constant-Lobotomy 0x7546…b17a | Yes | BUY | 11 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x155464… |
| 05-14 00:28:31 | (anonymous) 0xadd9…8df9 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 42¢ | $7 | 0x68d590… |
| 05-14 00:24:14 | Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | BUY | 5 | 58¢ | $3 | 0xef5dc2… |
| 05-14 00:22:16 | Lovable-Hutch 0x044f…d1f1 | No | BUY | 36 | 57¢ | $21 | 0x60c8aa… |
| 05-14 00:15:16 | Quick-Bitter 0xe2be…ff33 | No | BUY | 15 | 57¢ | $9 | 0xc36a6b… |
| 05-14 00:14:52 | Lovable-Hutch 0x044f…d1f1 | No | BUY | 70 | 57¢ | $40 | 0x1b58f9… |
| 05-14 00:14:52 | (anonymous) 0xcdd4…05eb | No | BUY | 5 | 57¢ | $3 | 0xa4dc6b… |
| 05-13 21:40:24 | (anonymous) 0x2390…f69d | Yes | BUY | 6 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x3c9dc4… |
| 05-13 21:36:45 | Lovable-Hutch 0x044f…d1f1 | No | BUY | 13 | 62¢ | $8 | 0xd20261… |
| 05-13 21:09:03 | Quick-Bitter 0xe2be…ff33 | No | BUY | 10 | 62¢ | $6 | 0xfd084e… |
| 05-13 21:07:30 | Vast-Study 0x8bca…0500 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x736bc7… |
| 05-13 21:05:48 | Memorable-Relaxation 0xaf13…eb99 | No | SELL | 3 | 60¢ | $2 | 0x3eac34… |
| 05-13 20:10:51 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 40¢ | $8 | 0x643903… |
| 05-13 20:08:54 | Quick-Bitter 0xe2be…ff33 | No | BUY | 5 | 60¢ | $3 | 0x620a56… |
| 05-13 20:08:24 | Lovable-Hutch 0x044f…d1f1 | No | BUY | 16 | 59¢ | $9 | 0x9b9aaf… |
| 05-13 18:40:37 | Sure-Footed-Cherry 0xa98a…a5a8 | No | BUY | 24 | 77¢ | $19 | 0x5cef12… |
| 05-13 18:38:27 | Tremendous-Kitten 0xbd6c…1e6d | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $5 | 0x18aaa3… |
| 05-13 17:37:49 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x980b44… |
| 05-13 14:58:22 | Usable-Conifer 0x1753…cafd | Yes | BUY | 45 | 19¢ | $9 | 0x1f229e… |
| 05-13 09:24:12 | Stunning-Barbeque 0xc80f…6147 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xdb61e5… |
| 05-13 04:17:10 | Torn-Semicolon 0xfd9b…96bf | Yes | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x5552b4… |