Costly-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

916

lifetime

Volume

$5.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 04-28 05:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$0

Politics

2% 100% +$5

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 435 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28?	3	$191	199	+199	open	—	04-28 04:50
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?	7	$108	134	+134	open	—	04-26 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 26?	7	$104	121	+121	open	—	04-26 02:23
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on April 25?	1	$92	92	+92	open	—	04-26 03:57
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26?	6	$91	97	+97	open	—	04-26 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 26?	8	$81	141	+141	open	—	04-26 05:15
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 26?	2	$81	86	+86	open	—	04-26 03:48
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on April 25?	3	$76	96	+96	open	—	04-26 02:11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 28?	5	$73	80	+80	open	—	04-28 04:45
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 26?	7	$68	113	+113	open	—	04-26 05:11
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 26?	6	$62	70	+70	open	—	04-26 05:14
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 28?	3	$61	63	+63	open	—	04-28 04:12
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?	4	$58	68	+68	open	—	04-26 05:02
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26?	10	$54	386	+386	open	—	04-26 02:25
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?	2	$52	57	+57	open	—	04-26 14:11
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$49	49	+49	open	—	04-25 10:14
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 28?	1	$48	48	+48	open	—	04-27 21:35
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?	5	$45	46	+46	open	—	04-28 04:44
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26?	3	$44	44	+44	open	—	04-26 05:09
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 28?	1	$43	43	+43	open	—	04-28 04:10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28?	3	$43	47	+47	open	—	04-28 04:50
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 28?	3	$40	67	+67	open	—	04-28 04:41
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?	2	$40	40	+40	open	—	04-28 04:39
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 25?	1	$39	39	+39	open	—	04-25 14:31
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$39	39	+39	open	—	04-26 02:22
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$39	39	+39	open	—	04-25 20:39
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26?	1	$39	46	+46	open	—	04-26 19:25
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$36	39	+39	open	—	04-26 02:23
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?	3	$36	52	+52	open	—	04-26 05:28
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	3	$35	38	+38	open	—	04-25 01:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-28 05:07:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0xd3aa99…
04-28 05:06:54	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 28?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$3	0xfac1b4…
04-28 05:05:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	51	9¢	$4	0x8618ed…
04-28 05:03:02	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 28?	No	BUY	11	60¢	$7	0x383ab8…
04-28 05:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 28?	No	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0xd6112e…
04-28 05:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x3b145d…
04-28 04:59:08	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x6d5704…
04-28 04:59:06	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x6284e8…
04-28 04:58:02	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x9cff6b…
04-28 04:56:28	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x9be116…
04-28 04:55:36	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	No	BUY	34	43¢	$15	0x670229…
04-28 04:54:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x815238…
04-28 04:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x386968…
04-28 04:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf88960…
04-28 04:52:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0x9ed6cf…
04-28 04:52:42	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x670645…
04-28 04:52:26	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xdd1bf1…
04-28 04:50:56	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x132168…
04-28 04:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x5471a1…
04-28 04:50:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	74	96¢	$71	0xc1ce8f…
04-28 04:50:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	74	96¢	$71	0x89533d…
04-28 04:50:04	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x31ace3…
04-28 04:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 28?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x7a627d…
04-28 04:47:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x85a352…
04-28 04:46:54	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xe68b2d…
04-28 04:46:54	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x3853cb…
04-28 04:45:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0x531f3e…
04-28 04:45:38	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0xf41d80…
04-28 04:45:22	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x60edf3…
04-28 04:44:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xe36b9b…
04-28 04:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xa45c5a…
04-28 04:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x91c23a…
04-28 04:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28?	No	BUY	36	91¢	$33	0x129479…
04-28 04:41:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x3a71d4…
04-28 04:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 28?	No	BUY	51	68¢	$35	0x5aafa9…
04-28 04:39:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xad2477…
04-28 04:36:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28?	No	BUY	27	67¢	$18	0xcf044f…
04-28 04:35:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 28?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc87d23…
04-28 04:34:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x14c054…
04-28 04:34:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x23527b…
04-28 04:34:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe0bfee…
04-28 04:33:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 28?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x3c5e06…
04-28 04:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0xd04c60…
04-28 04:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x7a6d90…
04-28 04:30:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28?	No	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0xdeb0a4…
04-28 04:28:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x1183a2…
04-28 04:28:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x8140ec…
04-28 04:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	62¢	$0	0x4e3c99…
04-28 04:21:32	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$0	0x8999db…
04-28 04:19:54	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x7eee19…
04-28 04:18:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?	No	BUY	33	86¢	$29	0xf8144c…
04-28 04:15:26	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x831bed…
04-28 04:15:24	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x31551b…
04-28 04:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x2947e6…
04-28 04:12:38	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2e2d66…
04-28 04:12:36	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd35d8b…
04-28 04:12:16	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 28?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x7ccd9b…
04-28 04:10:20	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xca5da9…
04-28 04:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x295bfd…
04-28 04:07:38	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 28?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xbad945…
04-28 04:07:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 28?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xaf50de…
04-28 04:07:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xc0b4c7…
04-28 04:06:32	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x27fa89…
04-28 04:06:20	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xbd1632…
04-28 04:05:52	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x98ffd5…
04-28 04:05:10	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x2881ba…
04-28 04:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 28?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3edbfa…
04-28 04:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 28?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xf4a37d…
04-28 04:00:38	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x28ad2d…
04-28 03:59:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xc08daa…
04-28 03:58:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x8abe18…
04-28 03:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x1abe6e…
04-28 03:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 28?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x06f946…
04-28 03:54:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb1bf5d…
04-28 03:53:08	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0x786380…
04-28 03:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x07af10…
04-28 03:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 28?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0xfc1dc3…
04-28 03:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x1f1d43…
04-28 03:34:50	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xb591a9…
04-28 03:32:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 28?	No	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0x79059c…
04-28 03:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 28?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x85ae2d…
04-28 03:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 28?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x9b64a8…
04-28 03:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x118d02…
04-28 03:28:30	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x363bb1…
04-28 03:26:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28?	No	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xc97019…
04-28 03:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x94c610…
04-28 03:15:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x1075c7…
04-28 03:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 28?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x7dedb9…
04-28 03:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x613670…
04-28 03:13:14	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdcda69…
04-28 03:12:32	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x15d9c2…
04-28 03:12:30	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0xa018aa…
04-28 03:09:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 28?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1b5c66…
04-28 03:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe6246e…
04-28 03:08:16	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x6ce9b9…
04-28 03:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 28?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x15bf1d…
04-28 03:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x07876c…
04-28 03:05:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x4e882c…
04-28 03:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	1	44¢	$1	0xb3731e…
04-28 03:03:26	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x01c903…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f	451	$7.21K	7,428	04-28 10:15
Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6	450	$26.2K	3,994	04-28 10:55
Impressionable-Ship 0x04dc…d572	424	$5.84K	5,821	04-28 10:10
Stormy-Conspirator 0x3d1d…9e61	411	$14.6K	4,059	04-28 11:00
Scientific-Sophomore 0x5f21…b376	406	$15.2K	8,969	04-28 11:00
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	400	$100.5K	10,325	04-28 05:45
Trained-Beanie 0xcb32…79aa	399	$4.78K	4,618	04-28 10:12
Troubled-Cloth 0x9009…1621	390	$3.96K	3,756	04-28 10:10