Costly-Fail 0x52d7fa…240ff9
bot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$128
Unrealized P&L
+$39
Hit rate
78.4%
Resolved
6,001
Trades
14,197
lifetime
Volume
$95.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$380
18 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 05-15 11:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Other
93% 65% -$86
Politics
6% 78% -$76
Crypto
1% 74% +$69
Tech
0% 75% -$36
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$1
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +126 $125 100¢ $126 +$0 05-06 21:11
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No +98 $42 89¢ $87 +$45 05-08 04:02
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No +40 $39 100¢ $40 +$1 05-13 11:38
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +28 $28 100¢ $28 +$0 05-12 07:40
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +28 $26 67¢ $19 -$7 05-03 08:38
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +41 $18 36¢ $14 -$4 05-06 21:11
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$0 05-06 15:34
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? No +12 $11 81¢ $10 -$1 05-06 13:50
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? No +9 $9 99¢ $9 +$0 05-03 20:34
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-08 15:46
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-05 13:46
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No +5 $4 98¢ $5 +$1 05-14 20:04
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-08 08:35
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-10 10:56
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No +5 $3 92¢ $5 +$2 04-28 17:32
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No +3 $2 92¢ $3 +$0 05-09 06:18
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +3 $2 98¢ $3 +$1 05-05 13:37
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? No +3 $1 8¢ $0 $0 05-09 06:18