True-Adaptation 0x001366…ad3c30
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Realized P&L
-$38
Unrealized P&L
-$134
Hit rate
2.4%
Resolved
13
Trades
1,712
lifetime
Volume
$30.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$103
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 06-30 12:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Crypto
59% 0% $-17
Politics
34% 0% $-8
Other
7% 20% $-14
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
59 active days in 12wk • peak 74 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +263 $100 25¢ $66 $-34 06-15 16:11
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes +59 $10 14¢ $8 $-2 06-15 12:46
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +417 $54 1¢ $4 $-49 06-15 16:55
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes +9 $1 36¢ $3 +$2 06-20 22:01
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes +427 $10 1¢ $3 $-7 06-29 09:58
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes +302 $10 1¢ $3 $-7 06-26 21:57
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes +70 $10 4¢ $3 $-7 06-12 20:56
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes +543 $6 0¢ $2 $-4 06-16 15:18
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes -241 $-1 1¢ $-2 $-1 06-21 18:25
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes -564 $-7 0¢ $-1 +$6 06-17 20:44
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Yes +260 $5 0¢ $1 $-4 06-29 11:35
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $1 15¢ $1 $-0 06-20 21:57
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes +5 $1 16¢ $1 $-0 06-20 22:01
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Yes +8 $1 8¢ $1 $-0 06-20 21:58
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? Yes +104 $2 1¢ $1 $-1 06-29 09:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes +213 $2 0¢ $1 $-1 06-28 08:36
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes +176 $1 0¢ $1 $-0 06-28 08:36
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +200 $3 0¢ $0 $-2 06-20 20:14
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes +75 $1 1¢ $0 $-1 06-13 15:04
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? Yes +4 $1 10¢ $0 $-1 06-20 23:19
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +133 $2 0¢ $0 $-2 06-12 20:47
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Yes +63 $2 0¢ $0 $-2 06-25 03:01
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +200 $1 0¢ $0 $-1 06-26 22:36
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +250 $1 0¢ $0 $-1 06-20 23:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +100 $5 0¢ $0 $-5 06-20 20:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes +106 $-2 0¢ $0 +$2 06-27 12:52
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes +77 $10 0¢ $0 $-10 06-14 21:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes +91 $1 0¢ $0 $-1 06-12 20:20
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +8 $1 0¢ $0 $-1 06-12 20:17