Vigilant-Hyena — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.09K

Unrealized P&L

-$139

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

Trades

264

lifetime

Volume

$33.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$125

Open exposure

$33

1 position

First seen

2026-04-22

last 09-03 19:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

52% 79% +$4,469

Tech

41% 33% -$1

Sports

4% 31% +$80

Politics

3% 80% +$540

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+2,000	$172	2¢	$33	-$139	05-13 12:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	43	$6.5K	7,138	729	+6,409	Yes	+$1,320	05-30 10:41
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	41	$6.2K	6,731	0	+6,731	Yes	+$558	06-08 18:49
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	4	$3.5K	2,719	1,200	+1,519	Yes	+$431	05-30 10:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	23	$2.8K	1,439	1,437	+2	Yes	+$42	05-26 12:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	9	$2.5K	1,800	1,350	+450	Yes	-$78	07-31 11:27
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$1.4K	1,789	0	+1,789	Yes	+$381	04-24 09:48
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	3	$1.3K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$183	06-15 20:37
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	6	$1.3K	1,695	0	+1,695	Yes	+$395	04-24 09:47
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	18	$1.1K	2,064	0	+2,064	Yes	+$957	06-21 20:09
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	10	$1.0K	747	746	+1	Yes	+$102	06-08 06:06
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	2	$620	400	400	+0	No	+$140	05-29 14:01
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	10	$540	957	0	+957	Yes	+$418	06-21 20:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	11	$464	300	299	+1	No	+$111	06-19 23:26
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	10	$438	7,600	7,600	+0	Yes	-$149	09-03 19:56
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	6	$280	300	284	+16	Yes	+$248	06-17 22:44
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	6	$234	300	0	+300	Yes	+$66	07-20 14:03
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$205	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$85	07-05 21:42
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	3	$200	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$200	06-29 16:11
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$198	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$198	06-21 21:12
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	2	$191	300	150	+150	No	+$113	08-23 06:50
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	1	$174	300	0	+300	Yes	+$126	06-08 14:15
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$172	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	05-13 12:08
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$141	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$859	06-21 21:12
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	1	$135	300	0	+300	Yes	-$135	06-12 19:10
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	9	$128	6,378	0	+6,378	No	-$128	07-10 19:01
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$126	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$126	06-21 21:12
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$118	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$118	06-21 21:12
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	8	$108	120	50	+70	No	-$16	08-03 23:02
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	1	$92	120	0	+120	No	+$28	06-30 12:58
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	4	$78	200	0	+200	Yes	-$78	09-03 07:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-03 19:56:28	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x3add79…
09-03 19:56:27	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6,579	2¢	$125	0xaeac0f…
09-03 19:51:31	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	2¢	$19	0x35a24f…
09-03 16:20:06	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0xcc2c9d…
09-03 16:06:34	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0x1abc72…
09-03 15:58:34	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$26	0xf6a411…
09-03 15:23:34	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,840	3¢	$82	0x550205…
09-03 15:22:36	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$29	0x31feaf…
09-03 15:22:36	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	160	3¢	$5	0x127a6b…
09-03 15:01:18	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,500	6¢	$150	0x855697…
09-03 07:26:13	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	38¢	$14	0x34ba20…
09-02 14:47:52	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	40¢	$22	0x44b547…
09-01 16:44:40	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0xebc894…
09-01 16:44:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	63	38¢	$24	0x11f2c6…
08-23 06:50:21	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	SELL	150	51¢	$77	0x33f427…
08-20 15:52:45	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	300	38¢	$114	0xf53e80…
08-03 23:02:26	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	18	92¢	$16	0xc91f7a…
08-03 23:01:33	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0xc4e2b7…
08-03 22:12:39	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x724ac3…
07-31 11:27:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	450	89¢	$400	0x6c0bbc…
07-30 22:56:14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	900	67¢	$600	0xfe8ff9…
07-30 15:49:03	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xd561d9…
07-30 14:58:23	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x2868ca…
07-30 14:58:14	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x0e9a0e…
07-30 14:58:09	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x45f6a9…
07-30 14:55:26	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0a1f56…
07-20 14:03:45	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	101	78¢	$78	0xbb6d88…
07-20 14:03:45	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xa7fdb8…
07-20 14:03:43	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xc29253…
07-20 14:03:43	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	78	78¢	$61	0x2f5920…
07-20 14:03:42	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xd59c77…
07-19 07:53:33	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xefe63d…
07-19 07:52:28	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x40ee56…
07-18 23:36:13	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0xf99d97…
07-18 22:47:54	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9fecca…
07-17 11:37:22	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	59	78¢	$46	0x8e1b98…
07-17 11:36:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	300	57¢	$171	0x3348f3…
07-10 19:01:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,225	2¢	$38	0x5d057b…
07-10 18:13:20	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	355	2¢	$6	0x23855c…
07-10 17:59:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$2	0xf721ec…
07-10 17:26:23	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$26	0xa457ea…
07-10 16:05:01	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	36¢	$58	0x3713ef…
07-10 15:53:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,790	2¢	$30	0xc3fee4…
07-08 08:44:01	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	3¢	$30	0x8ea7bf…
07-07 16:45:40	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$31	0xf4ed5b…
07-05 21:42:28	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5,000	3¢	$145	0x634181…
07-01 16:20:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	153	87¢	$133	0x99aa95…
07-01 15:45:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$11	0xb7dc6f…
07-01 15:33:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x6035ae…
07-01 15:31:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	27	87¢	$24	0x2096db…
07-01 10:31:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x19bd63…
06-30 12:58:26	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	120	77¢	$92	0x21564a…
06-29 16:11:23	Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	No	BUY	1,754	10¢	$175	0x35d19a…
06-29 16:04:25	Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	No	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xd63ae5…
06-29 16:01:31	Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	No	BUY	246	10¢	$25	0x86d036…
06-29 15:38:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0xd19f84…
06-28 08:27:10	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xad338f…
06-21 21:12:55	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$58	0x1cb1e0…
06-21 21:12:47	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$67	0x16d92e…
06-21 21:12:38	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$118	0xc4749f…
06-21 21:12:28	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$126	0x8da44f…
06-21 21:12:14	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	14¢	$141	0x42aceb…
06-21 21:12:05	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$198	0x6a465a…
06-21 20:09:31	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	73¢	$292	0x7fd7b5…
06-21 20:09:11	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	43	76¢	$33	0xcde1d8…
06-21 20:09:11	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	357	76¢	$271	0x38608b…
06-19 23:26:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	299	96¢	$287	0x9a80b4…
06-17 22:44:49	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	SELL	184	94¢	$174	0x5483da…
06-17 22:11:29	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x6ce7af…
06-17 01:33:56	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	76	8¢	$6	0xe4b500…
06-17 00:14:47	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xadd2cb…
06-17 00:13:34	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	109	8¢	$9	0x19cedb…
06-17 00:08:26	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	114	8¢	$9	0x3c9a80…
06-16 20:30:19	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x2efd8b…
06-16 16:43:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	103	59¢	$61	0x80c748…
06-16 16:38:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x77dac2…
06-16 16:30:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x21c703…
06-16 16:27:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x7b7fbd…
06-16 16:27:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x72d41f…
06-16 16:25:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x2d5f03…
06-16 16:23:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	29	59¢	$17	0x942849…
06-16 16:20:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x15bad2…
06-16 16:16:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x0075d4…
06-16 16:11:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	67	59¢	$39	0x5b0c02…
06-15 20:54:30	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0xb9e2d2…
06-15 20:37:54	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	1,000	37¢	$370	0x69fc78…
06-15 20:36:45	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	1,000	39¢	$393	0xfe2183…
06-15 20:09:39	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	29¢	$580	0xb1282c…
06-15 20:05:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	131	45¢	$59	0xda7a55…
06-15 15:49:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	7¢	$16	0xa1cdd8…
06-15 15:49:33	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0xcb710c…
06-15 15:48:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0xf71478…
06-15 15:48:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	6¢	$7	0x7e904a…
06-12 19:10:03	Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	No	BUY	300	45¢	$135	0xdbd4ad…
06-10 18:00:10	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	83	77¢	$64	0xf23764…
06-10 17:59:55	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0xcab30b…
06-08 18:49:00	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0xc79d05…
06-08 14:15:18	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	Yes	BUY	300	58¢	$174	0x2f20c5…
06-08 06:06:07	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	346	76¢	$263	0xa64593…
06-08 06:03:36	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x1ef427…