Lighthearted-Meatloaf — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$68

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

24.4%

Resolved

195

Trades

356

lifetime

Volume

$1.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-14 20:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

58% 52% -$43

Politics

33% 56% -$13

Crypto

6% 53% -$9

Sports

2% 47% -$3

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No		+1	$1	88¢	$1	+$0	09-10 14:11
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes		+7	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	05-01 14:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	11	$311	245	243	+2	No	-$7	03-31 19:07
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?	3	$195	155	155	+0	No	-$10	05-06 15:57
Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31?	2	$100	400	400	+0	No	-$4	04-15 20:29
will trump say oil or gas 3 times during address to the nation	2	$73	30	60	-30	Yes	-$7	04-01 16:21
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 273	3	$51	58	58	+0	Yes	+$0	03-23 01:15
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	2	$43	52	52	+0	No	$0	03-29 03:36
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30?	2	$33	38	38	+0	Yes	-$1	04-30 01:27
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	3	$31	71	71	+0	Yes	$0	03-21 17:48
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$23	20	20	+0	No	+$3	05-21 01:27
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	01-09 19:28
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	01-12 17:36
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	01-12 17:34
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	01-12 17:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$14	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	03-08 20:07
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	02-23 16:18
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?	3	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	03-08 19:47
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	2	$10	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	01-29 01:36
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	01-21 15:57
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?	4	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	03-08 19:48
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	6	$8	4	4	+0	Yes	+$0	03-23 17:59
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?	3	$6	3	3	+0	No	+$0	02-23 16:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	5	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	-$5	03-12 16:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	06-16 02:25
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$4	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	03-06 00:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	06-14 22:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	01-30 19:14
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	02-26 15:14
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	01-21 15:57
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	4	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	01-30 19:23
will sean payton win nfl coach of the year 188	2	$3	500	500	+0	No	+$1	01-13 16:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-14 20:04:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x222c21…
09-10 14:11:01	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x39a56e…
08-07 14:34:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x8c8567…
08-07 14:33:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x887754…
07-04 23:55:44	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xc94893…
07-04 23:54:58	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x79777b…
06-25 01:02:52	Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3912b6…
06-16 02:25:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x5cea10…
06-14 22:46:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0xfe113f…
06-14 22:43:33	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x4b3f24…
06-11 18:57:22	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xd1a83a…
06-08 16:31:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xb45f3f…
06-08 16:31:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x35495f…
06-02 02:38:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf8d2fd…
05-31 22:34:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x0cbb36…
05-31 22:32:41	Will Victoria's Secret (VSCO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xbd9b36…
05-27 23:17:16	Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x94da5b…
05-21 01:27:33	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x153938…
05-14 00:58:19	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xde6da0…
05-06 15:57:00	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?	Yes	SELL	35	50¢	$17	0xf66c7e…
05-06 15:55:57	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?	Yes	SELL	120	62¢	$75	0xb86113…
05-06 15:55:40	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?	Yes	BUY	155	66¢	$102	0xf61343…
05-04 14:23:24	Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x53ae96…
05-04 14:22:46	Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xca707b…
05-03 18:37:40	Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x06a88e…
05-01 14:51:16	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xf27e81…
05-01 02:24:48	Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x704fe8…
04-30 15:27:22	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x01687b…
04-30 01:27:56	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30?	Yes	SELL	38	44¢	$16	0x26f5d0…
04-30 01:18:38	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	45¢	$17	0x688ffd…
04-29 15:06:16	Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x5eac4c…
04-28 13:30:02	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x749cf6…
04-27 14:09:48	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x83c480…
04-27 14:07:18	Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x749653…
04-23 22:26:42	pg quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 24 2026 1pt56	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1f777a…
04-23 00:11:44	unp quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 2pt84	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0f2b5a…
04-20 01:28:46	mbwm quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 21 2026 1pt26	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xc275f9…
04-20 01:28:10	ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8fc93a…
04-16 14:28:32	nflx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 16 2026 0pt76	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xab22e3…
04-16 01:29:02	cfg quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 16 2026 1pt09	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xfb06f2…
04-15 20:29:06	Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31?	Yes	SELL	400	12¢	$48	0x830325…
04-15 20:26:58	Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31?	Yes	BUY	400	13¢	$52	0x237862…
04-14 16:19:21	mtb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 4	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x97bf2e…
04-14 14:35:13	Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x81dae4…
04-14 14:34:59	schw quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 16 2026 1pt36	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xb807c0…
04-13 15:07:07	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 0pt22	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf2ccfc…
04-13 15:01:23	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 2pt6	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb96b13…
04-13 14:59:57	Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8e92bf…
04-10 14:36:55	Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x347192…
04-10 01:47:07	unty quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 10 2026 1pt37	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5c8150…
04-09 20:55:23	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xc8ec5d…
04-08 00:06:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x194549…
04-07 22:54:51	dal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 08 2026 0pt63	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9843f5…
04-07 22:54:21	Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x703410…
04-01 16:21:05	will trump say oil or gas 3 times during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	60	80¢	$48	0x7ffe28…
04-01 16:18:53	will trump say oil or gas 3 times during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xaa09d0…
03-31 19:07:35	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	15	51¢	$8	0x07e3e6…
03-31 18:29:09	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	84	60¢	$50	0xb3f48d…
03-31 16:19:31	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0xbce7df…
03-31 16:17:45	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0xd195ae…
03-31 16:12:49	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xd33acf…
03-31 16:11:19	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	55	65¢	$36	0x85f31b…
03-31 16:04:07	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	25	65¢	$16	0xb064ba…
03-31 15:58:05	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	25	65¢	$16	0x6c4686…
03-31 15:51:47	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x5a9fe4…
03-31 15:47:57	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x980d9e…
03-31 15:40:25	will trump or melania say chicago at chicago opening night	Yes	BUY	245	65¢	$159	0xa77e78…
03-29 03:36:56	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	SELL	52	41¢	$21	0xa2c590…
03-29 03:36:08	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	BUY	52	42¢	$22	0x703dcd…
03-25 13:26:01	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5ea028…
03-25 13:25:03	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe156dd…
03-25 01:03:23	ctas quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 25 2026 1pt23	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x596709…
03-25 01:03:11	chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 25 2026 0pt28	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa33f57…
03-23 17:59:23	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe047c5…
03-23 01:15:13	will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 273	Yes	SELL	58	44¢	$26	0xe724fc…
03-23 01:14:53	will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 273	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$5	0xfd1bb3…
03-23 01:14:53	will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 273	Yes	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x350339…
03-21 17:48:53	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	No	SELL	71	22¢	$15	0xa9543c…
03-21 17:47:11	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x187a48…
03-21 17:47:01	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	No	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0x8faa31…
03-17 18:01:25	fdx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 4pt08	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8d5f69…
03-17 18:00:31	wb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 0pt32	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x3ee2bc…
03-17 14:28:17	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x04d6e7…
03-16 16:51:55	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf82bdc…
03-16 16:50:11	gis quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 0pt73	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x03cc06…
03-16 16:49:23	lulu quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 17 2026 4pt78	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x41c4d5…
03-15 01:32:43	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x82ad35…
03-13 16:40:03	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x7c8f9b…
03-13 16:39:23	mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2af6da…
03-13 16:36:53	aso quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 17 2026 2pt05	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x87e01e…
03-13 16:35:31	will nguyn ha bnh be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x6ce729…
03-12 17:02:21	will nguyn ha bnh be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8f86c8…
03-12 16:54:25	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa6bd47…
03-12 16:48:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x600bbd…
03-12 16:45:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x01394e…
03-12 16:38:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xad9cfa…
03-11 19:33:53	rbrk quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 12 2026 neg0pt11	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x077cbe…
03-11 19:31:51	will bugonia win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x32ec22…
03-10 23:04:39	will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x644484…
03-10 22:59:33	gamb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 12 2026 0pt2	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2b27f1…