Tasty-Notation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.05K

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

45.2%

Resolved

6,022

Trades

11,469

lifetime

Volume

$32.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$271

8 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 10-27 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 166 days

Categories

Other

65% 16% -$855

Politics

26% 38% -$114

Tech

7% 30% -$60

Crypto

1% 12% +$1

Sports

1% 17% -$27

Pop-Culture

0% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 137 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+100	$83	82¢	$82	$0	10-24 01:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	+100	$75	76¢	$76	+$2	10-26 09:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+168	$40	30¢	$49	+$10	10-24 01:33
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$37	72¢	$36	-$1	10-27 06:37
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+30	$24	86¢	$26	+$2	10-27 10:21
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	+2	$1	30¢	$1	$0	08-22 10:24
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	+5	$3	2¢	$0	-$3	09-13 23:00
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+0	$0	47¢	$0	+$0	09-22 00:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	18	$681	550	550	+0	open	—	10-27 12:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	6	$494	300	300	+0	open	—	10-22 22:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	13	$411	500	500	+0	open	—	10-27 06:32
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$372	230	200	+30	open	—	10-27 10:21
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	12	$349	367	367	+0	open	—	10-27 03:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	7	$295	360	360	+0	open	—	10-26 13:46
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	3	$268	200	200	+0	open	—	10-23 13:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	2	$232	200	200	+0	open	—	10-20 18:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	2	$199	145	145	+0	open	—	10-23 21:25
will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	21	$196	186	186	+0	Yes	-$6	08-01 04:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	8	$194	195	195	+0	open	—	10-24 22:38
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	19	$191	180	180	+0	open	—	08-30 04:13
Iran leadership change by November 30?	2	$183	100	100	+0	open	—	10-25 01:27
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	8	$179	150	150	+0	open	—	10-23 16:39
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	2	$177	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 11:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	6	$168	368	200	+168	open	—	10-24 01:33
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	11	$154	200	200	+0	No	+$1	10-21 12:07
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	46	$135	210	210	+0	open	—	10-27 08:27
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September?	14	$126	100	100	+0	No	+$2	09-25 14:43
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	6	$122	132	132	+0	open	—	10-23 18:15
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?	5	$117	141	141	+0	No	-$11	08-03 20:40
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?	11	$117	102	102	+0	Yes	-$3	08-07 08:46
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 3?	9	$117	81	81	+0	Yes	+$8	08-04 04:44
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	13	$115	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	09-23 06:53
will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	15	$110	85	85	-0	No	+$1	08-07 08:39
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	5	$110	70	70	+0	No	-$3	08-04 14:07
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	11	$108	100	100	+0	Yes	+$5	08-20 02:41
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	14	$106	120	120	+0	No	$0	09-04 21:02
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	8	$103	80	80	+0	open	—	08-21 12:10
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	5	$102	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 09:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:35:29	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x495e52…
10-27 10:21:20	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xa5bb97…
10-27 10:19:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	106	37¢	$39	0x65c7a0…
10-27 08:58:27	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0x605e52…
10-27 08:50:39	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x54fda8…
10-27 08:27:45	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0x7bc5ed…
10-27 08:22:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	23¢	$4	0xdf8421…
10-27 08:22:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x7b2219…
10-27 08:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x79c569…
10-27 07:54:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x7e5d82…
10-27 07:36:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x7fe2eb…
10-27 07:27:42	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x1772ba…
10-27 07:05:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x145cf7…
10-27 06:59:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x7c45a0…
10-27 06:53:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x2542ed…
10-27 06:37:42	Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xdf9e54…
10-27 06:33:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xfb3d48…
10-27 06:33:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x344b6a…
10-27 06:32:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0x59a6dc…
10-27 06:31:44	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x0e9dc5…
10-27 06:31:03	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xd768ca…
10-27 06:28:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x06edc5…
10-27 06:26:56	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x98d817…
10-27 06:26:29	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xfb6e40…
10-27 06:26:27	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x3b6127…
10-27 06:24:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x3d052a…
10-27 06:23:41	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xbee058…
10-27 06:21:24	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb9c88b…
10-27 06:19:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x0972b0…
10-27 06:18:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0xccfbbf…
10-27 06:16:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x4f724f…
10-27 06:15:26	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x84cc82…
10-27 06:14:09	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x99e69a…
10-27 06:13:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xe67d4e…
10-27 06:11:53	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x454829…
10-27 06:09:05	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb8768b…
10-27 06:00:44	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x33267a…
10-27 05:57:38	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xaf4df1…
10-27 05:47:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x7a6e89…
10-27 05:45:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1a4c8b…
10-27 05:43:41	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x84b4f2…
10-27 05:43:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4bcb2f…
10-27 05:41:53	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	13	62¢	$8	0x54564b…
10-27 05:22:53	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x211b41…
10-27 05:22:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x84314a…
10-27 05:21:45	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xddefc9…
10-27 05:21:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xaac065…
10-27 05:20:27	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xe7a44f…
10-27 05:16:18	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x513cd3…
10-27 05:14:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x6da25a…
10-27 05:12:48	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x2bfa53…
10-27 05:11:53	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xd0b957…
10-27 05:10:05	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x9719c6…
10-27 05:05:47	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x31b672…
10-27 05:03:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcdf559…
10-27 04:50:12	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x36740f…
10-27 04:26:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x154449…
10-27 03:51:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	135	51¢	$69	0xc064c4…
10-27 02:04:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x3a63ef…
10-26 18:21:38	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	No	SELL	39	81¢	$32	0x258af7…
10-26 14:46:33	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x82f075…
10-26 14:44:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xc00950…
10-26 13:46:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	SELL	130	43¢	$56	0xc949a8…
10-26 13:08:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x08c086…
10-26 12:18:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	SELL	21	43¢	$9	0x31b4f0…
10-26 10:40:42	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0xd693a6…
10-26 10:32:42	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?	No	BUY	133	20¢	$27	0x648b11…
10-26 09:46:26	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	90	64¢	$58	0x566874…
10-26 09:21:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?	No	BUY	32	38¢	$12	0x404556…
10-26 09:20:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0xb2d09b…
10-26 08:02:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	70	51¢	$36	0xac8832…
10-26 06:55:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	65	75¢	$49	0xa1b325…
10-26 06:31:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x7bc1de…
10-26 06:10:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	SELL	41	42¢	$17	0x75a5bc…
10-26 06:02:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	156	45¢	$70	0x95b802…
10-26 02:52:29	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	90	61¢	$55	0x4fbd18…
10-26 02:48:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	144	43¢	$62	0x23a1fc…
10-26 02:48:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0x71e81c…
10-26 02:48:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0xe93d1d…
10-25 22:43:00	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x10971f…
10-25 18:30:45	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xf18acf…
10-25 11:21:32	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x45d4fd…
10-25 07:37:51	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x758d17…
10-25 07:31:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	70	48¢	$34	0xa77310…
10-25 06:51:39	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x689385…
10-25 06:41:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	160	39¢	$62	0x69af9e…
10-25 01:27:41	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xd8526e…
10-24 22:38:11	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	59	58¢	$34	0x7d59b0…
10-24 22:36:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x272268…
10-24 20:54:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	31	58¢	$18	0x620820…
10-24 20:16:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	SELL	159	42¢	$67	0xc371ab…
10-24 10:36:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	56	48¢	$27	0xd1ba55…
10-24 07:16:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	45	55¢	$25	0x444ee0…
10-24 06:40:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	45	53¢	$24	0xc660a3…
10-24 03:18:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x5c31cc…
10-24 03:06:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x6ecc82…
10-24 02:59:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	41¢	$9	0xc459c7…
10-24 02:59:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	150	41¢	$61	0x5c2d3d…
10-24 02:59:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	28	41¢	$12	0xd626ac…
10-24 02:53:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x8a107c…