Academic-Forecast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$254

Unrealized P&L

+$15

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

293

Trades

3,614

lifetime

Volume

$19.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$482

23 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 10-29 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Tech

48% 50% +$81

Politics

37% 53% +$68

Other

15% 44% +$107

Sports

0% 33% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (23) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	+156	$68	60¢	$94	+$26	10-25 09:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+117	$82	74¢	$87	+$5	10-26 12:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+122	$73	62¢	$76	+$3	10-15 20:58
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+200	$56	30¢	$61	+$5	10-29 13:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+509	$110	8¢	$38	-$72	10-10 03:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+74	$19	52¢	$38	+$19	10-25 09:19
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+59	$9	52¢	$30	+$21	09-29 07:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+33	$9	43¢	$14	+$5	10-24 19:18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	+37	$6	30¢	$11	+$5	10-28 18:19
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+50	$5	16¢	$8	+$3	10-29 13:45
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+45	$7	17¢	$8	+$0	10-29 13:46
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	+40	$10	11¢	$4	-$5	10-16 03:19
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+120	$3	2¢	$3	+$0	09-11 06:21
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+19	-$5	14¢	$3	+$7	08-21 16:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-13	$4	18¢	$-2	-$6	08-06 18:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+35	$2	5¢	$2	+$0	10-17 13:12
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	-125	-$4	1¢	$-2	+$3	06-03 18:41
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	-483	$0	0¢	$-1	-$1	06-07 11:27
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?	Yes	-264	-$10	0¢	$-0	+$10	06-07 11:24
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Yes	-44	$4	0¢	$-0	-$4	08-19 17:18
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	Yes	+27	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	07-01 13:56
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+0	$6	8¢	$0	-$6	10-25 09:30
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	+0	$1	5¢	$0	-$1	06-08 00:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?	69	$1.5K	1,694	1,013	+681	open	—	10-24 19:20
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?	128	$1.4K	2,331	2,331	+0	No	-$76	09-10 19:04
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	96	$963	992	992	+0	open	—	10-09 09:17
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 20 20260717012517323	42	$790	681	681	+0	No	-$63	07-20 06:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	40	$758	830	829	+0	Yes	-$4	08-31 20:50
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?	59	$718	790	790	+0	Yes	+$27	07-22 23:34
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	19	$489	386	386	+0	Yes	-$5	09-15 17:49
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 15, 2026?	19	$465	280	280	+0	Yes	+$13	09-11 23:06
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 16 20260713194149000	29	$453	354	354	+0	No	+$185	07-16 22:47
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	11	$326	734	534	+200	open	—	10-29 13:44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?	35	$315	269	269	+0	No	+$65	09-15 17:16
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	12	$304	387	328	+59	open	—	09-29 07:53
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?	27	$303	414	414	+0	No	+$0	09-25 21:41
Iran leadership change by December 31?	54	$276	825	775	+50	open	—	10-29 13:45
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	53	$260	257	257	+0	open	—	10-09 10:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	19	$253	815	815	+0	open	—	10-12 21:46
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	12	$243	960	840	+121	Yes	-$57	09-15 13:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	60	$212	538	551	-13	open	—	08-06 18:41
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	33	$206	1,109	600	+509	open	—	10-10 03:25
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	11	$205	264	190	+74	open	—	10-25 09:19
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	38	$199	418	418	+0	Yes	+$11	09-20 03:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	56	$189	172	172	+0	No	+$27	06-20 12:04
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?	55	$188	267	267	+0	No	-$3	07-23 19:58
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	42	$181	1,844	1,844	+0	No	-$8	09-15 17:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	10	$156	710	410	+300	Yes	-$49	09-27 01:21
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	56	$155	368	350	+19	open	—	08-21 16:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	10	$154	195	195	+0	open	—	10-12 21:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	7	$149	183	61	+122	open	—	10-15 20:58
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	23	$147	207	141	+65	Yes	-$32	08-07 22:03
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	25	$147	501	501	+0	open	—	10-13 08:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:49:14	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x2d6712…
10-29 13:46:46	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xe217f5…
10-29 13:45:20	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x4cf54b…
10-29 13:44:22	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x5dbbdd…
10-29 13:43:55	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	80	30¢	$24	0x5b8445…
10-28 18:19:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x269d7c…
10-27 15:58:33	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x0a0b66…
10-27 15:56:30	Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x8f33b3…
10-27 15:47:38	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x8b7d66…
10-26 12:50:17	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?	Yes	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0xe6d6c9…
10-26 12:12:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x02b221…
10-26 12:10:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	58	71¢	$41	0x0721e7…
10-25 17:35:24	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x9c9963…
10-25 17:33:30	Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0xf66f97…
10-25 17:31:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	21¢	$2	0x0d20b6…
10-25 09:39:57	US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0xec9e88…
10-25 09:39:18	US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0xba4ac5…
10-25 09:38:50	US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xd8d91f…
10-25 09:30:47	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x68f252…
10-25 09:29:47	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0xf48714…
10-25 09:20:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xf28549…
10-25 09:20:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	SELL	19	61¢	$12	0xd6ee1a…
10-25 09:19:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xe1e95d…
10-25 09:18:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	58	38¢	$22	0xad4a3f…
10-25 09:17:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0xb33c74…
10-25 09:17:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	40	17¢	$7	0x52fd42…
10-25 09:16:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x4c4ee3…
10-25 09:15:21	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x0ce12c…
10-25 09:13:23	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	30	18¢	$5	0xc57edf…
10-25 09:12:42	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xa68eb0…
10-25 09:11:59	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x166d24…
10-25 09:09:44	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x14a972…
10-25 09:08:00	Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0xff5cbf…
10-24 19:25:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0xddbacf…
10-24 19:24:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	14	71¢	$10	0xe193a6…
10-24 19:22:42	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x1da9c3…
10-24 19:21:51	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0x72a891…
10-24 19:20:24	Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	60¢	$90	0x96844e…
10-24 19:18:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	33	27¢	$9	0x646930…
10-22 12:41:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x5bb448…
10-21 22:07:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	25	26¢	$6	0x77a880…
10-21 22:06:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	13	22¢	$3	0xfd6ed3…
10-21 21:30:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x563d1a…
10-21 21:30:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	38	17¢	$6	0x840db3…
10-21 21:21:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x0a5a95…
10-21 21:19:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0x06385a…
10-21 20:50:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x5b40f2…
10-21 20:50:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xf5e969…
10-21 20:49:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	45	13¢	$6	0xd3869b…
10-21 18:34:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd6fc36…
10-21 17:47:57	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x8ec74c…
10-21 17:47:29	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x1c371b…
10-21 00:22:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xbabec3…
10-21 00:20:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xacb5d7…
10-21 00:19:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0xd88b4b…
10-18 10:15:27	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xab8da9…
10-17 15:50:33	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x60fd63…
10-17 15:49:29	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0xabb6ad…
10-17 15:49:12	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x57dddd…
10-17 15:48:50	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	78	2¢	$2	0x726fa0…
10-17 15:40:18	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x3a9db6…
10-17 13:12:05	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	35	4¢	$2	0xd462ce…
10-17 04:30:44	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	3¢	$2	0x2a38b0…
10-17 04:22:06	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xd11ee9…
10-16 20:24:29	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0xfb8117…
10-16 16:17:09	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	3¢	$2	0xbf221d…
10-16 14:53:01	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xe8bf7c…
10-16 14:52:06	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	77	2¢	$2	0xc58404…
10-16 07:00:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xedc900…
10-16 03:22:39	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xf5e7c0…
10-16 03:19:12	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	40	24¢	$10	0x4d75c7…
10-15 20:58:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0x3e0a72…
10-15 17:10:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x7f183d…
10-15 17:09:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xf91317…
10-15 14:42:34	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0xbf9ef3…
10-15 13:42:43	saudi airspace closed by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x7fdb0a…
10-15 13:32:35	Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xb6c2d1…
10-15 13:32:35	Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x8d80a5…
10-14 17:35:00	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	SELL	40	48¢	$19	0xcb10d8…
10-14 17:29:34	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	SELL	30	46¢	$14	0xec4f1a…
10-14 17:29:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x900ec7…
10-14 10:25:40	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	3¢	$2	0x487359…
10-14 10:25:13	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x98a393…
10-14 10:23:37	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xed760d…
10-13 08:12:43	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x04905a…
10-13 08:11:44	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x47b892…
10-13 08:09:40	Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x5f7d56…
10-13 08:08:41	Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x265155…
10-13 06:32:31	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0x26edfd…
10-12 21:56:02	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xdd155b…
10-12 21:55:08	0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0x59803c…
10-12 21:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	3¢	$2	0x5c477f…
10-12 21:46:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0xf02ece…
10-12 21:40:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x760f60…
10-12 21:40:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	15	43¢	$6	0x4dc128…
10-12 21:39:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0x9619c0…
10-12 21:39:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	30	36¢	$11	0x9451c3…
10-12 21:37:51	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0xd3f3fe…
10-12 11:21:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0xec5916…
10-12 11:20:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xfff4b4…