Grouchy-Genius — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

186 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$773

$3.79K lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$149

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-30 07:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Crypto

34% 100% +$9

Other

32% 98% +$14

Politics

27% 100% +$10

Tech

7% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+143	$140	93¢	$134	-$6	10-21 05:53
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+13	$13	98¢	$13	+$0	10-08 23:04
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	10-27 15:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+2	$2	58¢	$1	$0	10-27 19:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	4	$292	147	147	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:10
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	4	$254	127	127	+0	No	+$0	09-29 09:04
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	2	$236	139	139	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 01:30
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$144	145	0	+145	Yes	+$0	10-04 23:50
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$140	143	0	+143	open	—	10-21 05:53
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$138	139	0	+139	No	+$1	09-05 09:32
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$137	139	0	+139	Yes	+$2	09-10 14:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	1	$136	136	0	+136	No	+$1	09-14 15:23
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	3	$125	126	0	+126	No	+$1	06-26 07:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	1	$124	124	0	+124	No	+$0	06-02 10:40
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$122	127	0	+127	No	+$5	09-30 05:01
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	1	$121	124	0	+124	Yes	+$3	10-13 05:14
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$120	121	0	+121	Yes	+$1	08-05 10:42
cap fdv above 400m one day after launch	1	$119	120	0	+120	No	+$1	06-27 16:48
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$117	119	0	+119	No	+$2	08-09 16:32
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$114	114	0	+114	No	+$1	08-11 06:37
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$114	115	0	+115	No	+$1	08-16 21:47
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$113	114	0	+114	Yes	+$0	08-20 21:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$109	114	0	+114	No	+$5	08-13 06:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$74	74	0	+74	Yes	+$0	05-30 10:31
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$60	62	0	+62	Yes	+$2	07-28 04:51
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	08-26 14:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	1	$46	47	0	+47	No	+$2	05-20 10:22
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$1	08-27 19:13
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$41	41	0	+41	Yes	+$1	05-05 11:56
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$39	39	0	+39	Yes	+$0	05-29 06:56
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$38	39	0	+39	Yes	+$1	05-25 15:48
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	06-30 02:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	08-27 08:50
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-28 20:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 07:18:25	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0b3765…
10-30 06:04:43	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfdfdb6…
10-27 19:55:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0xbbd4bc…
10-27 15:22:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xcd724f…
10-25 23:50:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x945e7a…
10-21 05:53:12	Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	143	98¢	$140	0xf49693…
10-16 16:52:37	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x22d6d3…
10-13 05:14:44	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	98¢	$121	0x559baf…
10-10 21:38:04	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x00472d…
10-09 08:52:34	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xdda51b…
10-08 23:04:23	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x008202…
10-08 22:56:02	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x553693…
10-08 22:38:36	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb7aec2…
10-08 22:31:33	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6fa31d…
10-04 23:50:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	145	100¢	$144	0x7e03a8…
10-04 21:10:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	147	99¢	$146	0x61c6f4…
10-03 18:07:02	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x21d668…
10-02 21:39:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xa3d9c0…
10-02 07:17:41	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x0cb57c…
10-02 06:29:47	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x65f189…
10-01 00:09:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x15ee67…
09-30 17:25:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x4f06b7…
09-30 05:01:41	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	127	96¢	$122	0x62a44a…
09-29 09:04:24	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x10a6fe…
09-29 07:42:48	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x6b7d67…
09-29 07:42:33	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x976a14…
09-28 15:56:35	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x90e024…
09-23 10:43:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x647b24…
09-22 12:20:55	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x13a37a…
09-14 15:23:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$136	0x850545…
09-11 04:32:54	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x20dbe4…
09-10 14:22:12	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	139	98¢	$137	0x5fb26a…
09-10 01:30:12	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	139	85¢	$118	0x2f10e9…
09-09 18:44:57	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	139	85¢	$118	0x24105e…
09-05 09:32:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	139	99¢	$138	0xfd6aed…
08-27 19:13:33	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x39bb35…
08-27 08:50:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x4218c9…
08-26 14:04:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x3eb217…
08-25 15:12:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd62a83…
08-25 09:27:16	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5b528b…
08-25 09:25:12	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1c3723…
08-25 04:20:03	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	0¢	$0	0xdae2aa…
08-25 03:28:22	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x3b5e42…
08-25 00:46:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xeced19…
08-20 21:03:22	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	114	100¢	$113	0x292441…
08-18 09:49:57	will xauusd dip to 3900 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd089df…
08-16 21:47:06	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0x9482c0…
08-13 06:01:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	114	96¢	$109	0x03364f…
08-12 16:15:03	will nvda dip to 160 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2f0242…
08-11 06:37:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	114	99¢	$114	0x9ba880…
08-10 08:51:40	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4dbd1b…
08-09 16:32:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	119	99¢	$117	0x66f9ea…
08-06 07:42:53	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3fa8a8…
08-05 10:42:11	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xbaee85…
08-04 21:01:24	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6b03d2…
08-04 04:29:54	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x6a3d97…
07-31 09:49:29	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbf4104…
07-31 03:26:14	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x721b6f…
07-28 20:43:20	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x86b67b…
07-28 04:51:07	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	62	97¢	$60	0x253aa5…
07-26 20:40:00	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x0237d7…
07-26 17:14:16	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x527565…
07-26 01:31:43	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd44199…
07-25 16:43:36	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xee1b3e…
07-21 23:29:40	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2f43b4…
07-21 02:53:10	will ethereum dip to 1000 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x21bfb4…
07-20 14:17:22	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1411d5…
07-19 15:42:52	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x839cbb…
07-19 14:11:42	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0dbbab…
07-19 13:22:39	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x0145d9…
07-17 20:19:57	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x77a45b…
07-17 02:16:06	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4bf298…
07-16 11:57:26	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x82bc95…
07-04 21:26:38	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8d601b…
06-30 02:06:16	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xb293dd…
06-29 12:48:32	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x59ac5c…
06-29 11:38:52	Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x98ad83…
06-29 04:41:52	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5c11cf…
06-28 23:46:56	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe8e03d…
06-28 20:10:13	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xb55816…
06-28 09:54:13	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x04de1d…
06-27 16:48:07	cap fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x64ca80…
06-26 07:50:44	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf63ce2…
06-26 07:47:14	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x538ea5…
06-25 22:35:17	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0xddc4d6…
06-02 10:40:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x22e6a1…
05-30 10:31:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x7e3a91…
05-29 06:56:15	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x012dd6…
05-25 15:48:58	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x209c06…
05-23 22:53:55	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x32b859…
05-21 23:10:24	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0e7c0d…
05-20 10:22:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0xd7fc41…
05-19 18:02:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xcee9b7…
05-17 18:53:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1a6fc8…
05-16 21:49:50	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xe7ed43…
05-15 12:47:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x21f25f…
05-14 19:46:21	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9ae43a…
05-09 13:47:03	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x796702…
05-08 19:25:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfea86c…
05-08 15:26:14	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2cbb2c…