Imperfect-Favor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-19 14:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

57% 97% -$13

Crypto

38% 100% +$1

Politics

5% 89% -$1

Sports

0% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 0 39	1	$125	125	+125	No	+$0	02-03 03:49
will ethereum reach 4000 in january 2026	1	$125	125	+125	No	+$0	01-30 09:41
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 140 159	1	$125	125	+125	No	+$0	01-26 07:45
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 0 39	1	$124	125	+125	No	+$0	01-21 10:57
elon musk of tweets january 2026 1280 1319	1	$124	124	+124	No	+$0	01-17 03:23
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 220 239	1	$124	124	+124	No	+$0	01-08 03:20
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$111	111	+111	No	+$0	05-25 02:03
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	1	$110	111	+111	No	+$0	02-15 02:28
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 280 299	1	$110	110	+110	No	+$0	02-11 01:56
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 215 239	1	$110	110	+110	No	+$0	03-27 02:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?	1	$110	110	+110	No	+$0	05-17 02:02
bitcoin above 70k on june 5 2026	1	$110	110	+110	No	+$0	06-05 01:18
bitcoin above 62k on april 13	1	$110	110	+110	Yes	+$0	04-12 02:29
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 440 459	1	$110	110	+110	No	+$0	03-13 02:23
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 240plus	1	$110	110	+110	No	+$0	03-23 01:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	1	$109	109	+109	No	+$0	05-09 08:14
bitcoin above 68k on march 17	1	$108	108	+108	Yes	+$0	03-17 02:09
ethereum above 1800 on april 7	1	$108	108	+108	Yes	+$0	04-07 02:10
bitcoin above 70k on april 17	1	$108	108	+108	Yes	+$0	04-17 01:52
ethereum above 2100 on april 23	1	$107	107	+107	Yes	+$0	04-23 01:45
Netanyahu out by May 31?	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	05-30 02:25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	05-05 01:22
bitcoin above 74k on march 7	1	$107	107	+107	No	+$0	03-07 02:29
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	1	$106	106	+106	No	+$0	05-28 02:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	1	$105	105	+105	No	+$0	04-30 09:11
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	1	$15	83	+83	No	-$15	02-06 02:43
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	1	$12	12	+12	No	+$0	06-12 06:40
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$12	12	+12	No	+$0	07-23 09:37
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in August?	1	$12	12	+12	No	+$0	08-26 13:55
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	1	$10	10	+10	No	+$0	09-20 14:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 14:27:23	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcf7a71…
10-19 13:57:29	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0xf4fc22…
09-20 14:02:33	Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7d1638…
09-20 13:57:13	Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x4bef2a…
08-26 13:55:25	Will XRP dip to $0.60 in August?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5d6ada…
07-23 09:37:04	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xda6e84…
06-12 06:42:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 13 2026 20260612000830408	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7579ba…
06-12 06:41:22	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x28e278…
06-12 06:41:15	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3837e4…
06-12 06:41:01	bitcoin above 68k on june 13 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd59127…
06-12 06:40:54	bitcoin above 56k on june 13 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd774e3…
06-12 06:40:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf4a236…
06-05 01:18:06	bitcoin above 70k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x92cb87…
05-30 02:25:49	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x13524f…
05-28 02:36:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xd8681a…
05-28 02:36:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc8db2…
05-28 02:36:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf710e4…
05-28 02:36:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 28?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9cf87b…
05-28 02:35:49	Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa0dfd7…
05-25 02:03:10	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x157c49…
05-17 02:02:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x606f05…
05-09 08:14:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x087860…
05-05 01:22:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x56f904…
05-05 01:22:28	Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2f73c5…
05-05 01:22:10	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74a7f8…
05-05 01:21:34	Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa6d8ba…
04-30 09:11:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x752fca…
04-23 01:45:46	ethereum above 2100 on april 23	Yes	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0xcd40e3…
04-23 01:45:36	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b8f4c…
04-23 01:45:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x01364b…
04-23 01:45:18	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x11e1e8…
04-17 01:52:44	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x4bfc82…
04-17 01:52:34	will meta ai assistant glasses be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xced893…
04-17 01:52:26	will bitcoin dip to 58k april 13 19	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x152ea6…
04-12 02:29:59	bitcoin above 62k on april 13	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xc86ba3…
04-07 02:10:47	ethereum above 1800 on april 7	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x6931c7…
04-07 02:10:37	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 7	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2256a6…
04-07 02:10:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x38117b…
03-27 02:07:39	elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 215 239	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x91a962…
03-23 01:50:23	elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 240plus	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xebf083…
03-17 02:09:11	bitcoin above 68k on march 17	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xedee86…
03-17 02:08:59	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 712	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8ca79f…
03-17 02:08:47	will google be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x390eef…
03-13 02:23:09	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 440 459	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xc82cba…
03-07 02:29:51	bitcoin above 74k on march 7	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x5b83a1…
03-07 02:29:41	elon musk of tweets march 2026 240 259	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0424a6…
03-07 02:28:05	will skyview be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 10	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa00651…
03-07 02:27:45	will iran strike israel on march 4	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3ab01d…
02-15 02:28:37	us strikes iran by february 14 2026	No	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0x73c765…
02-11 01:56:33	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 280 299	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x13f7e8…
02-06 02:43:13	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	Yes	BUY	83	18¢	$15	0xec06a1…
02-03 03:49:20	elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 0 39	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x1aa01b…
01-30 09:41:00	will ethereum reach 4000 in january 2026	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xac76cb…
01-26 07:45:31	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 140 159	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x15833d…
01-21 10:57:30	elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 0 39	No	BUY	125	100¢	$124	0x3c08a5…
01-17 03:23:52	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1280 1319	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x726177…
01-08 03:20:11	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 220 239	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x2c3c1e…