Incomparable-Surprise 0x048215…5c6b0a
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$36
Unrealized P&L
-$289
Hit rate
15.3%
Resolved
20
Trades
7,709
lifetime
Volume
$1.47M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$190
Open exposure
$4.43K
28 positions
First seen
2026-03-16
last 06-28 14:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 12 days
Categories
Politics
61% 0% $-966
Tech
19% 100% +$500
Other
18% 14% $-292
Crypto
1% — —
Sports
0% 33% +$722
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 284 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes -1,024 $-554 83¢ $-852 $-298 06-08 15:11
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No -836 $-520 99¢ $-827 $-307 06-11 01:58
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes -5,000 $-1,200 16¢ $-825 +$375 06-16 21:27
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No -753 $-624 99¢ $-743 $-118 05-29 23:54
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No -416 $-198 83¢ $-346 $-147 05-29 23:52
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No -423 $-287 81¢ $-343 $-56 05-29 23:53
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +586 $426 24¢ $138 $-288 06-01 17:19
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No -172 $-28 65¢ $-112 $-84 06-04 13:19
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes -242 $-46 32¢ $-79 $-32 05-29 23:51
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -109 $1,247 40¢ $-44 $-1,292 06-28 14:38
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes -343 $-61 10¢ $-33 +$29 06-04 13:18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -10,411 $1,130 0¢ $-26 $-1,156 06-25 12:30
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes -4,085 $-234 0¢ $-16 +$217 05-31 10:30
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? No -129 $-619 12¢ $-16 +$603 06-28 14:37
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No -10 $-747 98¢ $-10 +$738 06-25 02:01
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes -440 $232 1¢ $-5 $-237 06-25 12:52
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes -199 $-179 2¢ $-4 +$175 05-29 23:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes -1,562 $42 0¢ $-2 $-44 06-25 12:30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -1,500 $-300 0¢ $-2 +$298 05-29 23:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes -850 $56 0¢ $-2 $-58 06-09 08:56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes -2,000 $219 0¢ $-2 $-221 06-24 12:46
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +1,260 $-1,628 0¢ $2 +$1,630 06-12 11:34
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? No +6 $-264 17¢ $1 +$265 06-25 12:58
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes -21 $-1 4¢ $-1 $-0 06-17 14:44
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes -13 $-1 6¢ $-1 +$0 06-17 14:45
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes -801 $-15 0¢ $-1 +$14 06-03 12:07
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes -111 $-4 0¢ $-0 +$4 06-17 14:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -1 $297 0¢ $-0 $-297 06-19 21:01