Incomparable-Surprise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

15.3%

Resolved

Trades

7,709

lifetime

Volume

$1.47M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$190

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-28 14:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Politics

61% 0% $-966

Tech

19% 100% +$500

Other

18% 14% $-292

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 33% +$722

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 284 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	159	$94.5K	242,313	215,060	+27,254	open	—	06-14 23:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	151	$68.3K	180,123	175,556	+4,567	open	—	05-29 15:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	89	$28.6K	108,803	67,259	+41,543	open	—	05-26 18:58
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	102	$27.8K	115,394	107,424	+7,970	open	—	06-12 19:25
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	91	$23.1K	26,676	24,785	+1,891	open	—	04-23 17:02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	71	$22.6K	22,326	21,820	+507	open	—	05-01 01:51
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	73	$20.2K	59,597	56,097	+3,500	open	—	06-14 18:35
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	23	$19.1K	11,537	10,936	+601	open	—	04-27 20:08
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	45	$18.4K	57,189	56,689	+500	open	—	06-28 14:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	46	$15.7K	35,616	35,616	+0	open	—	04-07 22:35
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	55	$14.5K	17,543	17,067	+476	open	—	04-23 16:09
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	68	$14.4K	12,827	12,514	+312	open	—	04-19 22:15
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	46	$14.4K	11,033	11,033	+0	open	—	04-07 22:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	53	$13.1K	99,384	68,189	+31,195	open	—	05-27 22:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	37	$12.7K	18,837	21,837	-3,000	open	—	05-22 21:29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	31	$12.1K	10,131	10,131	+0	open	—	04-22 09:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	21	$12.1K	11,803	11,803	+0	open	—	06-25 11:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	50	$11.9K	41,375	34,642	+6,733	open	—	05-26 08:56
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	42	$11.7K	36,998	47,409	-10,411	open	—	06-25 12:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	24	$11.5K	28,769	28,803	-34	open	—	05-29 15:19
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	33	$11.1K	19,611	20,488	-877	open	—	06-14 21:37
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	19	$11.1K	15,825	23,831	-8,006	open	—	06-14 21:12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	35	$10.7K	25,031	17,031	+8,000	open	—	05-26 18:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	68	$10.7K	39,459	39,459	+0	open	—	04-27 12:56
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	67	$10.5K	10,968	10,408	+560	open	—	04-27 13:00
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	18	$10.0K	10,321	10,430	-109	open	—	06-28 14:38
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	26	$9.9K	8,108	6,256	+1,852	open	—	05-24 14:21
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	49	$9.3K	17,691	17,691	+0	open	—	04-15 21:28
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	216	$9.3K	14,494	13,773	+722	open	—	05-26 02:17
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	24	$9.2K	9,886	15,377	-5,491	open	—	06-06 13:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 14:38:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,411	38¢	$923	0xa36129…
06-28 14:37:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,956	1¢	$11	0x7a4f78…
06-28 14:37:05	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	SELL	1,064	57¢	$608	0x5add0e…
06-28 14:37:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5,152	1¢	$50	0xc7d7db…
06-28 14:36:55	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	888	7¢	$62	0xa825a7…
06-28 14:36:49	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,209	1¢	$40	0xe75599…
06-28 14:36:44	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	SELL	1,150	6¢	$66	0x72c581…
06-28 14:36:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	192	61¢	$117	0xe544a0…
06-28 14:36:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	490	53¢	$260	0x427811…
06-28 14:36:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	SELL	973	47¢	$457	0xdf9fbc…
06-25 15:11:53	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	39¢	$585	0x2ada78…
06-25 15:10:53	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,956	3¢	$59	0x9cac13…
06-25 15:10:34	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	SELL	500	26¢	$130	0xabf124…
06-25 15:07:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3,000	12¢	$360	0xb3aa46…
06-25 13:00:19	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	7,417	3¢	$238	0x7cf2be…
06-25 12:59:40	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	799	13¢	$101	0x3d38b3…
06-25 12:58:04	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	537	30¢	$162	0x75f167…
06-25 12:56:41	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	570	40¢	$228	0x9e949a…
06-25 12:52:58	Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	786	3¢	$27	0x3406a4…
06-25 12:52:14	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,919	0¢	$3	0x4724e5…
06-25 12:48:34	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	No	SELL	11	71¢	$8	0x6fe486…
06-25 12:48:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,584	0¢	$12	0x0b8f85…
06-25 12:48:11	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,525	1¢	$16	0x6ba4bc…
06-25 12:48:07	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,561	0¢	$7	0x27b128…
06-25 12:48:01	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,464	1¢	$16	0x3f01ce…
06-25 12:43:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	192	72¢	$139	0x41691a…
06-25 12:43:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	490	71¢	$346	0xbcb788…
06-25 12:42:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	416	66¢	$274	0x5ee68b…
06-25 12:31:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	2,505	19¢	$472	0x56333c…
06-25 12:30:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,291	1¢	$17	0xd2891f…
06-25 12:30:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,470	0¢	$18	0x60136b…
06-25 12:30:22	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,303	1¢	$42	0x078119…
06-25 12:21:49	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	570	40¢	$229	0xeca28e…
06-25 12:21:02	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	888	10¢	$88	0x607b9a…
06-25 11:43:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	2,500	30¢	$747	0xfb0c07…
06-25 11:41:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	527	68¢	$360	0x62a99f…
06-25 11:41:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x4ffdd8…
06-25 11:39:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	663	67¢	$442	0xcd6813…
06-25 11:37:26	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3,418	3¢	$116	0x511eb5…
06-25 10:39:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	2,277	45¢	$1,025	0x584184…
06-25 10:34:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	23	45¢	$10	0xca5734…
06-25 08:41:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	1,150	25¢	$286	0x7a23ef…
06-25 08:05:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	2,982	37¢	$1,096	0xdb1807…
06-25 02:02:25	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x822ccf…
06-25 02:01:26	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	452	95¢	$431	0x75272b…
06-25 02:01:10	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	1,200	24¢	$288	0xa7c2a9…
06-25 01:26:56	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	708	19¢	$135	0xabbc05…
06-25 01:26:20	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	715	8¢	$56	0xc7ee74…
06-25 01:25:29	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,158	11¢	$240	0xb67b02…
06-25 01:24:35	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,343	11¢	$355	0x40daff…
06-24 20:52:41	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	SELL	749	42¢	$317	0x3c39df…
06-24 19:31:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	254	40¢	$101	0x6945dc…
06-24 19:29:08	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	80	68¢	$54	0x567cce…
06-24 19:28:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	438	63¢	$276	0x9e6357…
06-24 19:27:43	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	281	28¢	$78	0x8092dc…
06-24 19:26:53	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	120	30¢	$36	0xf207d2…
06-24 19:26:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	1,295	28¢	$361	0xa6a812…
06-24 19:26:41	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	1,903	19¢	$358	0x75f85a…
06-24 18:05:37	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	500	33¢	$165	0x1e00c9…
06-24 17:43:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	4,323	39¢	$1,675	0x1c63a4…
06-24 17:43:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	7,329	64¢	$4,693	0xaeb0d2…
06-24 17:14:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	86	70¢	$60	0xefbcdd…
06-24 17:08:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0x8f6bac…
06-24 16:55:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	1,215	67¢	$814	0x8d7558…
06-24 16:55:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	47	67¢	$31	0x7d1f71…
06-24 16:55:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x6c5790…
06-24 16:55:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	232	67¢	$155	0x120bc2…
06-24 16:10:10	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	1,813	10¢	$186	0x765de0…
06-24 16:07:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	3,376	11¢	$360	0xe1d591…
06-24 16:06:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	3,751	24¢	$883	0x3d10b1…
06-24 12:46:41	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15,003	0¢	$60	0x57ad9e…
06-24 12:45:50	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	3,000	14¢	$423	0xadb514…
06-24 12:45:22	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	92¢	$458	0xf27ae4…
06-24 12:44:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8,152	2¢	$179	0x690fc8…
06-24 12:42:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	No	SELL	3,180	93¢	$2,973	0x45538b…
06-24 12:41:28	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,304	42¢	$548	0x319d1f…
06-24 12:39:55	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,141	44¢	$506	0x985d5c…
06-24 12:38:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5,215	44¢	$2,298	0x881612…
06-23 23:46:16	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	469	18¢	$82	0xd4102a…
06-23 23:45:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	113	28¢	$32	0xfd6316…
06-23 23:42:56	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	672	16¢	$107	0xbe01d9…
06-23 23:42:53	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	1,736	15¢	$260	0xfe2922…
06-23 23:41:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	540	33¢	$178	0xb81ef6…
06-23 23:38:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x91958c…
06-23 23:38:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	649	26¢	$169	0xa3be7e…
06-23 23:38:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	65	26¢	$17	0x6e68fa…
06-23 23:37:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	1,129	22¢	$252	0x56b2b3…
06-22 13:44:47	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	No	BUY	924	23¢	$210	0xed2912…
06-22 12:53:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	SELL	3,397	14¢	$476	0xeafdf4…
06-22 00:00:46	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,041	40¢	$414	0x04d39f…
06-21 15:36:02	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	2,068	13¢	$279	0x0bf7b1…
06-21 14:51:22	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	6,188	14¢	$870	0xe5c4df…
06-21 14:19:46	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	810	30¢	$243	0x3662b3…
06-21 14:16:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	1,000	33¢	$330	0x690201…
06-21 14:14:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	2,000	32¢	$640	0xa36cfd…
06-21 14:13:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	577	52¢	$299	0x67b5df…
06-21 14:04:16	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	603	61¢	$368	0x12bc0c…
06-21 14:01:53	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	671	62¢	$416	0x9aa7ac…
06-21 14:01:14	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	35	65¢	$23	0x73ba32…
06-21 14:00:38	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	SELL	147	68¢	$100	0x06d157…