Incomparable-Surprise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$94.1K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.3%

Resolved

773

Trades

11,512

lifetime

Volume

$1.76M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-28 14:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Politics

57% 37% +$58,565

Other

21% 36% +$1,969

Tech

20% 50% +$31,355

Crypto

2% 70% +$2,469

Sports

0% 29% -$284

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-28).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	195	$118.3K	287,182	287,182	+0	Yes	+$14,510	06-14 23:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	155	$70.1K	185,194	178,877	+6,317	No	-$796	05-29 15:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	102	$39.4K	108,808	108,808	+0	No	+$10,712	05-26 19:33
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	102	$27.8K	115,394	107,424	+7,970	No	+$7,472	06-12 19:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	658	$25.4K	135,618	150,660	-15,042	No	+$1,730	06-25 12:29
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	91	$23.1K	26,676	24,785	+1,891	Yes	+$815	04-23 17:02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	71	$22.6K	22,326	21,820	+507	No	+$15	05-01 01:51
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	76	$20.6K	59,597	59,597	+0	No	+$2,440	06-14 18:35
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	23	$19.1K	11,537	10,936	+601	No	+$2,746	04-27 20:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	34	$18.7K	45,740	45,740	+0	No	+$1,915	06-02 12:58
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	46	$18.5K	57,189	57,189	+0	No	-$781	06-28 14:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	50	$15.7K	54,824	54,824	+0	No	-$2,628	06-25 12:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	46	$15.7K	35,616	35,616	+0	Yes	+$1,300	04-07 22:35
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	55	$14.5K	17,543	17,067	+476	Yes	+$304	04-23 16:09
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	68	$14.4K	12,827	12,514	+312	Yes	-$170	04-19 22:15
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	46	$14.4K	11,033	11,033	+0	Yes	+$1,171	04-07 22:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	22	$13.7K	23,831	23,831	+0	Yes	+$2,772	06-14 21:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	21	$13.3K	38,275	31,907	+6,368	No	-$872	06-06 11:19
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	53	$13.1K	99,384	68,189	+31,195	No	-$1,067	05-27 22:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	38	$13.0K	21,837	21,837	+0	No	+$1,655	05-22 21:29
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	55	$12.4K	43,542	35,490	+8,052	Yes	-$1,428	05-26 08:56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	31	$12.1K	10,131	10,131	+0	Yes	+$689	04-22 09:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	21	$12.1K	11,803	11,803	+0	Yes	+$3,548	06-25 11:39
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460?	5	$11.7K	8,031	7,369	+661	Yes	+$1,081	05-10 01:20
Iran leadership change by June 30?	43	$11.6K	55,892	55,892	+0	No	-$505	06-12 17:33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	26	$11.5K	28,803	28,803	+0	No	+$3,122	05-29 15:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	34	$11.4K	20,488	20,488	+0	Yes	+$2,633	06-14 21:37
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	40	$10.7K	16,288	16,288	-0	Yes	+$3,096	06-06 13:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	35	$10.7K	25,031	17,031	+8,000	No	-$326	05-26 18:56
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	29	$10.7K	8,108	8,089	+19	No	+$522	05-24 14:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 14:38:26	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	330	0¢	$1	0xf65f30…
06-28 14:38:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,411	38¢	$923	0xa36129…
06-28 14:37:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,956	1¢	$11	0x7a4f78…
06-28 14:37:05	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	SELL	1,064	57¢	$608	0x5add0e…
06-28 14:37:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5,152	1¢	$50	0xc7d7db…
06-28 14:36:55	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	888	7¢	$62	0xa825a7…
06-28 14:36:49	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,209	1¢	$40	0xe75599…
06-28 14:36:44	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	SELL	1,150	6¢	$66	0x72c581…
06-28 14:36:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	192	61¢	$117	0xe544a0…
06-28 14:36:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0xc5236e…
06-28 14:36:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	490	53¢	$260	0x427811…
06-28 14:36:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	SELL	973	47¢	$457	0xdf9fbc…
06-25 15:12:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0x24d89a…
06-25 15:11:53	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	39¢	$585	0x2ada78…
06-25 15:10:53	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,956	3¢	$59	0x9cac13…
06-25 15:10:34	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	SELL	500	26¢	$130	0xabf124…
06-25 15:08:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,000	11¢	$852	0x609eef…
06-25 15:07:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3,000	12¢	$360	0xb3aa46…
06-25 13:00:19	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	7,417	3¢	$238	0x7cf2be…
06-25 12:59:40	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	799	13¢	$101	0x3d38b3…
06-25 12:59:28	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,060	3¢	$70	0x0727a7…
06-25 12:58:04	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	537	30¢	$162	0x75f167…
06-25 12:56:41	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	570	40¢	$228	0x9e949a…
06-25 12:53:22	Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	299	2¢	$5	0x34fc08…
06-25 12:52:58	Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	786	3¢	$27	0x3406a4…
06-25 12:52:25	Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	828	0¢	$2	0xeef85b…
06-25 12:52:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x09b967…
06-25 12:52:14	cuba leader miguel diaz canel in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,919	0¢	$3	0x4724e5…
06-25 12:49:47	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	17,482	0¢	$35	0x818b1d…
06-25 12:48:50	Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,283	1¢	$23	0x55635c…
06-25 12:48:38	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,158	1¢	$7	0x89e8e3…
06-25 12:48:34	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	No	SELL	11	71¢	$8	0x6fe486…
06-25 12:48:28	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	842	1¢	$5	0xffb1a1…
06-25 12:48:22	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,335	0¢	$4	0x927b1c…
06-25 12:48:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,584	0¢	$12	0x0b8f85…
06-25 12:48:11	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,525	1¢	$16	0x6ba4bc…
06-25 12:48:07	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,561	0¢	$7	0x27b128…
06-25 12:48:01	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,464	1¢	$16	0x3f01ce…
06-25 12:43:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	192	72¢	$139	0x41691a…
06-25 12:43:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	490	71¢	$346	0xbcb788…
06-25 12:42:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	416	66¢	$274	0x5ee68b…
06-25 12:31:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	2,505	19¢	$472	0x56333c…
06-25 12:31:05	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	798	16¢	$128	0x599566…
06-25 12:30:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,291	1¢	$17	0xd2891f…
06-25 12:30:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,470	0¢	$18	0x60136b…
06-25 12:30:22	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,303	1¢	$42	0x078119…
06-25 12:30:08	Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,275	0¢	$32	0x6f6d5e…
06-25 12:30:02	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,475	2¢	$53	0x2fb227…
06-25 12:29:56	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	85¢	$91	0x4db73e…
06-25 12:29:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	31,037	0¢	$100	0xbfd45d…
06-25 12:21:49	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	570	40¢	$229	0xeca28e…
06-25 12:21:02	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	888	10¢	$88	0x607b9a…
06-25 11:43:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	2,500	30¢	$747	0xfb0c07…
06-25 11:41:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	527	68¢	$360	0x62a99f…
06-25 11:41:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x4ffdd8…
06-25 11:39:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	663	67¢	$442	0xcd6813…
06-25 11:37:26	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3,418	3¢	$116	0x511eb5…
06-25 10:39:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	2,277	45¢	$1,025	0x584184…
06-25 10:34:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	23	45¢	$10	0xca5734…
06-25 08:41:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	1,150	25¢	$286	0x7a23ef…
06-25 08:05:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	2,982	37¢	$1,096	0xdb1807…
06-25 02:02:25	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x822ccf…
06-25 02:01:26	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	452	95¢	$431	0x75272b…
06-25 02:01:10	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	1,200	24¢	$288	0xa7c2a9…
06-25 01:26:56	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	708	19¢	$135	0xabbc05…
06-25 01:26:20	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	715	8¢	$56	0xc7ee74…
06-25 01:25:29	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,158	11¢	$240	0xb67b02…
06-25 01:24:35	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,343	11¢	$355	0x40daff…
06-24 20:52:41	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	SELL	749	42¢	$317	0x3c39df…
06-24 19:53:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,590	10¢	$162	0xf1bb7c…
06-24 19:52:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	13¢	$267	0xbc2372…
06-24 19:51:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,037	2¢	$95	0x56dd81…
06-24 19:31:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	254	40¢	$101	0x6945dc…
06-24 19:29:08	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	80	68¢	$54	0x567cce…
06-24 19:28:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	SELL	438	63¢	$276	0x9e6357…
06-24 19:27:43	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	281	28¢	$78	0x8092dc…
06-24 19:26:53	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	120	30¢	$36	0xf207d2…
06-24 19:26:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	1,295	28¢	$361	0xa6a812…
06-24 19:26:41	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?	No	BUY	1,903	19¢	$358	0x75f85a…
06-24 19:06:31	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,144	9¢	$108	0x43223b…
06-24 19:06:17	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,316	9¢	$115	0x2410d3…
06-24 19:05:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,608	8¢	$454	0x625ebc…
06-24 18:05:37	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	500	33¢	$165	0x1e00c9…
06-24 17:43:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	4,323	39¢	$1,675	0x1c63a4…
06-24 17:43:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	7,329	64¢	$4,693	0xaeb0d2…
06-24 17:14:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	86	70¢	$60	0xefbcdd…
06-24 17:08:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0x8f6bac…
06-24 16:55:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	1,215	67¢	$814	0x8d7558…
06-24 16:55:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	47	67¢	$31	0x7d1f71…
06-24 16:55:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x6c5790…
06-24 16:55:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	232	67¢	$155	0x120bc2…
06-24 16:10:10	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	1,813	10¢	$186	0x765de0…
06-24 16:07:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	3,376	11¢	$360	0xe1d591…
06-24 16:06:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	3,751	24¢	$883	0x3d10b1…
06-24 12:47:08	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,000	1¢	$33	0x4e9f68…
06-24 12:46:41	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15,003	0¢	$60	0x57ad9e…
06-24 12:45:50	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	3,000	14¢	$423	0xadb514…
06-24 12:45:22	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	92¢	$458	0xf27ae4…
06-24 12:44:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8,152	2¢	$179	0x690fc8…
06-24 12:42:50	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	No	SELL	3,180	93¢	$2,973	0x45538b…