Sour-Conspiracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.4%

Resolved

Trades

6,917

lifetime

Volume

$37.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-23 18:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 86% +$9

Other

41% 20% $-26

Sports

7% — —

Politics

3% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	198	$4.6K	7,174	7,574	-400	open	—	03-27 13:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	95	$2.0K	4,835	4,615	+220	open	—	04-16 08:01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	60	$1.7K	4,417	4,417	+0	open	—	05-10 18:32
spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	26	$612	725	625	+100	open	—	03-24 13:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$550	853	853	+0	open	—	04-18 08:13
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	24	$498	701	801	-100	open	—	02-17 13:34
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	8	$411	666	666	+0	open	—	06-17 16:12
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	12	$362	829	829	+0	open	—	06-30 13:08
spx opens up or down on april 6 2026	20	$304	401	351	+50	open	—	04-06 07:05
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	18	$302	1,401	1,401	+0	open	—	03-26 14:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$259	202	202	+0	open	—	04-28 12:44
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 28?	4	$248	201	198	+3	open	—	04-28 10:27
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	4	$233	201	201	+0	open	—	05-29 07:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	7	$224	199	199	+0	open	—	07-23 18:21
spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	22	$218	429	429	+0	open	—	04-07 13:30
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	6	$217	979	250	+729	open	—	06-19 07:19
spx opens up or down on february 19 2026	16	$201	400	400	+0	open	—	02-19 11:21
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?	2	$200	101	101	+0	open	—	04-28 13:32
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	10	$191	261	261	+0	open	—	02-13 12:33
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$186	312	312	+0	open	—	06-13 11:59
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$174	260	260	+0	open	—	06-17 07:34
bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	13	$152	350	50	+300	open	—	04-17 08:51
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$132	400	400	+0	open	—	03-25 20:01
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$127	100	100	+0	open	—	04-23 08:12
iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	14	$117	133	93	+40	open	—	07-09 13:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$117	201	201	+0	open	—	05-06 19:24
bitcoin up or down on april 9 2026	7	$113	211	11	+200	open	—	04-09 13:33
solana up or down on april 15 2026	8	$113	200	0	+200	open	—	04-15 14:28
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	6	$111	132	132	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 07:43
spx opens up or down on april 16 2026	8	$109	89	89	+0	open	—	04-16 08:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 18:21:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	45¢	$51	0x877b66…
07-23 08:30:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0xad6bdf…
07-23 08:29:42	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x131bb5…
07-23 07:38:27	copper cable hit with secpt 232 tariffs by december 31 2026 20260721191705881	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x3672d5…
07-23 07:09:27	copper cable hit with secpt 232 tariffs by december 31 2026 20260721191705881	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xe4fecd…
07-22 13:23:24	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xc338d4…
07-22 11:13:39	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 6 2026 20260721160433827	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x93e4f1…
07-22 11:08:00	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 6 2026 20260721160433827	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x36ac25…
07-22 07:23:28	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x50b465…
07-22 07:09:51	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 30 2026 20260721160333086	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xd19e48…
07-22 07:08:27	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xf04d93…
07-22 07:08:15	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x3931f2…
07-22 07:05:06	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x429438…
07-22 07:03:40	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 30 2026 20260721160333086	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xf69a3a…
07-22 06:40:58	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xd94a0b…
07-21 10:30:40	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x6b5fbb…
07-21 10:30:22	will spider man brand new day score at least 95 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026314	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x538761…
07-21 08:47:30	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x71e979…
07-21 08:37:03	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x11fd24…
07-21 06:33:46	will warsh say inflation 20 times during july press conference 20260720204109028	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xa7f8c2…
07-21 06:30:52	will warsh say inflation 20 times during july press conference 20260720204109028	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x9a1288…
07-18 06:32:07	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xdb28c8…
07-18 06:30:34	will the announcers say lenovo during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403331	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xfaaf97…
07-18 06:30:18	will the announcers say tom cruise during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403328	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xe50b7b…
07-18 06:30:06	will the announcers say own goal during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403326	Yes	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0xe47188…
07-18 06:29:54	will the announcers say powerade during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403325	Yes	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0xd1aa26…
07-18 06:29:18	will the announcers say trump during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403317	No	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xb87543…
07-18 06:29:01	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xdbf608…
07-18 06:28:31	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x8d56ae…
07-18 06:28:19	will the announcers say golden boot 5 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956888	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xf34b74…
07-18 06:27:54	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956885	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xe9e8cd…
07-18 06:16:48	will the announcers say what a strike or what a finish during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403324	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$7	0x92842c…
07-18 06:16:43	will the announcers say what a strike or what a finish during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403324	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x0435c1…
07-18 06:16:42	will the announcers say what a strike or what a finish during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403324	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x94fa59…
07-18 06:02:15	will the announcers say equalizer during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403333	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xddbea7…
07-18 06:00:46	will the announcers say bieber during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403319	Yes	SELL	40	69¢	$28	0xb066bc…
07-18 06:00:15	will the announcers say trump during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403317	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x98c6d8…
07-18 05:59:00	will the announcers say heavyweight during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956895	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xf0bf69…
07-18 05:36:58	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	No	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x2a8f8d…
07-18 05:28:51	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	No	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x15d57e…
07-18 05:08:57	will the announcers say own goal during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403326	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xe18b02…
07-18 04:11:27	will the announcers say tom cruise during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403328	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xa14b8e…
07-17 22:21:28	will the announcers say lenovo during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403331	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xd15edf…
07-17 20:26:10	will the announcers say bieber during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403319	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xb51a13…
07-17 19:44:33	will the announcers say trump during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403317	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x6a5c62…
07-17 19:42:39	will the announcers say golden boot 5 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956888	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xebbe2c…
07-17 19:30:13	will the announcers say trump during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403317	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xa4aff4…
07-17 19:30:01	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956904	No	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0x99f9af…
07-17 19:29:39	will the announcers say crossbar during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956899	No	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x2b26d6…
07-17 19:28:03	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956904	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xe103b2…
07-17 19:00:21	will the announcers say crossbar during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956899	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x28a449…
07-17 18:55:16	will the announcers say crossbar during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956899	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8416f3…
07-17 18:53:25	will the announcers say own goal during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403326	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd4f9f4…
07-17 18:38:13	will the announcers say equalizer during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403333	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xf06840…
07-17 18:24:46	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x0e09d9…
07-17 18:18:31	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956885	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x991666…
07-17 18:07:55	will the announcers say equalizer during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403333	No	SELL	24	77¢	$18	0x8c44ad…
07-17 18:04:19	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xf3dd78…
07-17 17:31:34	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xd90f3f…
07-17 17:18:36	will the announcers say equalizer during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403333	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x938040…
07-17 16:29:52	will the announcers say powerade during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403325	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xa6612e…
07-17 16:26:55	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	SELL	18	42¢	$7	0x781123…
07-17 15:15:01	will the announcers say foul 12 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740620	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x8064f5…
07-17 15:14:58	will the announcers say foul 12 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740620	No	SELL	18	59¢	$11	0x7d9a84…
07-17 14:56:31	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956885	Yes	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x5a56cf…
07-17 14:43:54	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956885	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xbd9b9e…
07-17 14:40:19	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe00d8e…
07-17 14:40:19	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x5efd1b…
07-17 14:34:58	will the announcers say tom cruise during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403328	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x68ffc2…
07-17 14:34:33	will the announcers say maradona or pele during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403323	No	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x70d117…
07-17 14:33:22	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	SELL	23	47¢	$11	0x784275…
07-17 14:23:00	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956904	No	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x5832b7…
07-17 14:22:36	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x095b7d…
07-17 14:22:12	will the announcers say maradona or pele during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403323	No	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x477d4f…
07-17 14:12:01	will the announcers say tom cruise during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403328	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x17969b…
07-17 14:03:52	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xfc50d0…
07-17 13:54:45	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x1fb56b…
07-17 13:35:33	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	No	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x561a9c…
07-17 13:02:37	will the announcers say trump during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403317	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xc16105…
07-17 12:41:37	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xfb22f9…
07-17 12:26:40	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	Yes	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0xd4c773…
07-17 11:18:37	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf900d2…
07-17 11:17:40	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x09c4d0…
07-17 11:15:04	will the announcers say transition during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956891	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xbc8242…
07-17 11:14:34	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$0	0x90df4b…
07-17 11:01:06	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x9f9120…
07-17 10:53:10	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x6d14fe…
07-17 10:53:03	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xe09ab3…
07-17 10:53:03	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x42ba70…
07-17 10:53:01	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xda7021…
07-17 10:53:00	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x79993d…
07-17 10:53:00	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x2d857f…
07-17 10:39:19	will the announcers say heavyweight during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956895	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xdfe2be…
07-17 10:29:40	will the announcers say equalizer during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403333	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x9a0c3f…
07-17 10:27:16	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x956b39…
07-17 10:27:15	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x6d9fe1…
07-17 10:26:57	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x89cd18…
07-17 09:15:09	will the announcers say foul 12 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740620	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xb07db9…
07-17 09:09:33	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xc603f5…
07-17 08:22:12	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf7d5e6…