Sour-Conspiracy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$680

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

3,066

Trades

7,603

lifetime

Volume

$42.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 15:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 257 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 78% -$308

Other

37% 41% -$298

Sports

7% 22% -$88

Politics

4% 22% +$14

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	Yes	+8	$6	89¢	$7	+$2	07-16 11:50
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	+8	$3	11¢	$1	-$2	07-16 07:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+5	-$2	18¢	$1	+$3	05-24 19:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	198	$4.6K	7,174	7,574	-400	Yes	-$131	03-27 13:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	95	$2.0K	4,835	4,615	+220	No	-$16	04-16 08:01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	60	$1.7K	4,417	4,417	+0	No	+$10	05-10 18:32
spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	26	$612	725	625	+100	Down	+$15	03-24 13:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$550	853	853	+0	No	+$4	04-18 08:13
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	24	$498	701	801	-100	Down	+$19	02-17 13:34
will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	8	$411	666	666	+0	No	+$31	06-17 16:12
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	12	$362	829	829	+0	No	+$82	06-30 13:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	7	$307	422	422	+0	open	—	08-11 02:55
spx opens up or down on april 6 2026	20	$304	401	351	+50	Up	+$37	04-06 07:05
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	18	$302	1,401	1,401	+0	No	+$6	03-26 14:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	7	$281	406	401	+5	open	—	05-24 19:45
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	7	$272	979	477	+502	No	-$58	06-19 07:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$259	202	202	+0	No	+$0	04-28 12:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 18:45 UTC	51	$256	350	150	+200	Down	-$8	08-09 18:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 19:00 UTC	33	$251	371	168	+203	Down	+$1	08-09 19:10
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 28?	4	$248	201	198	+3	Down	+$0	04-28 10:27
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	4	$233	201	201	+0	Down	-$10	05-29 07:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	7	$224	199	199	+0	open	—	07-23 18:21
spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	22	$218	429	429	+0	Down	-$2	04-07 13:30
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-17 08:00 UTC	15	$211	306	206	+100	Up	-$34	08-17 11:02
spx opens up or down on february 19 2026	16	$201	400	400	+0	Down	+$5	02-19 11:21
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$201	303	303	+0	No	$0	04-28 13:58
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?	2	$200	101	101	+0	No	+$0	04-28 13:32
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$192	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-28 13:43
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	10	$191	261	261	+0	Up	-$11	02-13 12:33
will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$186	312	312	+0	Yes	-$14	06-13 11:59
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$174	260	260	+0	No	+$14	06-17 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 15:45 UTC	9	$170	250	50	+200	Down	+$3	08-10 15:48
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$165	264	264	+0	Yes	+$5	07-30 15:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa728b9…
10-28 20:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9b2610…
10-28 19:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe98258…
10-28 18:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xce0906…
10-28 14:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xbc388e…
10-27 19:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x11da3e…
10-24 14:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5317fd…
10-23 19:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xc8cb89…
10-22 08:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa5e416…
10-21 17:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x448040…
10-21 13:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe4adc0…
10-21 11:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xed3c5e…
10-20 17:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd37e00…
10-20 15:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x12466c…
10-19 20:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0d30ca…
10-19 16:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc02a7d…
10-19 13:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xbe5e34…
10-19 11:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1c1abf…
10-18 19:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1b0ea9…
10-18 15:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xed12ae…
10-18 08:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x37ecf7…
10-17 14:46:00	bitcoin up or down october 17 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd286e6…
10-16 10:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xce3ba7…
10-15 15:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x33500c…
10-15 14:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb9cc9a…
10-15 12:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x9389b2…
10-15 11:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x41a60d…
10-13 17:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9ee803…
10-13 15:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x5646e1…
10-13 13:56:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x0caaa9…
10-12 18:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x218850…
10-11 07:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd2e458…
10-09 10:52:34	bitcoin up or down october 9 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4f0954…
10-08 16:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdf00cf…
10-08 16:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa4a314…
10-08 15:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1d1c7e…
10-07 16:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0261e0…
10-07 13:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x54d740…
10-07 11:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xfb2a1a…
10-05 12:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6f3936…
10-04 18:48:20	bitcoin up or down october 4 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa57289…
10-04 14:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x01f190…
10-04 14:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x1a1048…
10-04 14:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xbf3400…
10-04 14:51:46	bitcoin up or down october 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4b890f…
10-04 12:41:55	bitcoin up or down october 4 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb7a1a7…
10-02 18:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x017165…
10-02 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x474f0d…
10-02 13:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x443688…
10-02 11:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x34888a…
10-01 20:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xf29fbb…
10-01 17:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf76397…
10-01 14:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9a5b09…
10-01 14:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf09c40…
10-01 13:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb3a148…
10-01 12:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb95bc7…
10-01 10:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x60ac64…
09-30 14:41:24	bitcoin up or down september 30 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf6ad14…
09-30 12:40:15	bitcoin up or down september 30 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1fe850…
09-30 10:50:32	bitcoin up or down september 30 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x17168b…
09-30 08:56:24	bitcoin up or down september 30 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4ea979…
09-29 19:42:20	bitcoin up or down september 29 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xedda2b…
09-29 14:41:27	bitcoin up or down september 29 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x72401e…
09-28 19:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa2df3a…
09-28 18:53:42	bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xbdc452…
09-28 13:54:17	bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x358ffd…
09-28 13:51:23	bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1db9a3…
09-28 13:49:02	bitcoin up or down september 28 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa0f602…
09-27 12:42:00	bitcoin up or down september 27 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xb68dc0…
09-27 09:53:41	bitcoin up or down september 27 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x053f8b…
09-27 08:54:27	bitcoin up or down september 27 2026 4am et	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0xadd170…
09-27 08:51:59	bitcoin up or down september 27 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x909717…
09-26 14:50:09	bitcoin up or down september 26 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xde0554…
09-26 13:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2d35f1…
09-25 15:41:26	bitcoin up or down september 25 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x85c4a1…
09-25 13:39:18	bitcoin up or down september 25 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x55023d…
09-24 19:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd5aa86…
09-24 19:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6652c9…
09-24 19:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1b2eda…
09-24 19:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xcf519c…
09-24 19:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Down	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0xb70e5d…
09-24 19:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x267345…
09-24 19:46:08	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-24 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x831e1b…
09-24 19:45:47	Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x70f479…
09-24 17:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xab6295…
09-24 16:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x582d65…
09-23 18:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x553876…
09-22 10:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x408fa5…
09-22 07:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xd30cd8…
09-21 20:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xde1599…
09-21 19:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe6311e…
09-21 18:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x58f3c8…
09-20 19:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x17fa23…
09-20 18:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x83f9e3…
09-20 17:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x244e2b…
09-20 17:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4b1d1b…
09-20 16:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb4c66d…
09-18 11:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf6ca68…
09-17 17:50:00	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x1f887f…
09-17 16:57:33	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc2eeaf…